Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220524
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 21 2018
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vicente, located a couple hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico, and on Hurricane Willa, located a couple of
hundred miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.
A small area of low pressure, located a little over 800 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
some gradual development of this system during the next couple of
days as it drifts generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Tropical
-
Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 22
the center of Vicente was located near 14.1, -99.7
with movement W at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Vicente
-
Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220835
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018
...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 99.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Vicente.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 99.7 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward
turn is expected later this morning, followed by a turn toward the
northwest by late tonight. A northwestward to north-northwestward
motion is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Vicente is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico
on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today.
Afterward, weakening is forecast, and Vicente is expected to become
a tropical depression by tonight or Tuesday. The cyclone's
circulation is expected to dissipate near the southwestern coast of
Mexico by Wednesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday
over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.
This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
]]>
-
Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220835
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 99.7W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 99.7W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 99.3W
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.8N 100.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.1N 102.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.7N 103.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.5N 104.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 99.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
-
Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220836
TCDEP3
Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018
Vicente's cloud pattern has become better organized during the past
several hours. A burst of deep convection has developed near the
surface center, and a developing curved band with associated cold
cloud tops of -80C is wrapping around nearly 70 percent of the
cyclone's circulation. A SATCON analysis, subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier 0325
UTC ISRO ScatSAT-1 overpass support an initial intensity increase to
40 kt for this advisory.
Despite this temporary strengthening interlude, modest northeasterly
shear as indicated by the statistical intensity aids and the
UW-CIMSS shear product should induce weakening soon. In fact, most
of the large-scale models agree with dissipation in 36 hours, or
show the cyclone reaching the Mexico coastline around the 48-hour
period as a depression. Although the majority of the models support
dissipation over water, the NHC forecast will reflect landfall as a
tropical depression for continuity purposes. Regardless of the
forecast intensity scenarios, the primary hazard will be heavy
rainfall across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, which
could cause life-threatening flash flooding.
The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/9 kt, within
southeast to easterly steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric
ridge extending westward over southern Mexico from the central Gulf
of Mexico. Vicente is expected to round the southwestern to western
periphery of the aforementioned ridge during the next 36 hours, or
prior to dissipation. The track forecast is a little slower than
the previous advisory, and is based on a blend of the Florida State
Superensemble and the TVCN multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 14.1N 99.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.8N 100.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 16.1N 102.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 17.7N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 19.5N 104.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
-
Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 220835
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 100W 34 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
-
Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 08:37:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 08:37:42 GMT
Hurricane for
-
Summary for Hurricane Willa (EP4/EP242018)
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Oct 22
the center of Willa was located near 18.2, -107.1
with movement N at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 931 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.
Hurricane Willa
-
Hurricane Willa Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 220838
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 107.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Willa
was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.1 West. Willa is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. Willa is forecast to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the
Islas Marias on Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern
coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night
or Wednesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is
possible today, and Willa could become a category 5 hurricane later
this morning. While some weakening is forecast by tonight and
Tuesday, Willa is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it
reaches the coast of Mexico late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 931 mb (27.49 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night,
especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.
Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas tonight and Tuesday.
SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
]]>
-
Hurricane Willa Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018
000
WTPZ24 KNHC 220837
TCMEP4
HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.1W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.1W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.1W
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.2N 107.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.4N 107.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 106.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.8N 104.6W...INLAND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.0N 99.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND NRN MEXICO
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
-
Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 220838
TCDEP4
Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018
Willa is an impressive hurricane with rapid to explosive deepening
having occurred over the past 48 hours, and yielding a 105-kt
intensity increase during that time. Satellite intensity estimates
range from subjective Dvorak T-numbers of T6.5/127 kt from TAFB and
SAB to objective T-numbers of T7.0/140 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC.
The most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON value around 0437Z was 127 kt. Based
on these data and the slightly more ragged appearance of the CDO
over the past couple of hours, the intensity is raised to 135 kt,
which is just below category 5 strength.
Willa is now moving northward and the initial motion estimate is
360/06 kt. Willa is forecast to continue moving northward today as
the hurricane rounds the western portion of a deep-layer ridge
located over central Mexico and which extends westward along 20N
latitude to near the Pacific coast of Mexico. On Tuesday, a turn
toward the north-northeast and northeast at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected as the hurricane gets caught up in
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level trough.
The latest 00Z NHC model guidance is in decent agreement on this
general track scenario, but with noticeable differences in the
forward speed. Internal statistical analyses show that the ECMWF
and UKMET models have had a slow westward bias over the past 48
hours, which has significantly affected the consensus models. As a
result, the new NHC forecast is a little to the right of and
slightly faster the previous advisory track and the consensus
models, and lies close to GFS model which has verified the best
thus far. On the forecast track, Willa is expected to move over Las
Islas Marias on Tuesday and then move inland over southwestern and
west-central Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. A 72-hour
position has been provided only for continuity purposes beyond the
48-hour period, and Willa will likely have dissipated by then.
Water temperatures ahead of the powerful hurricane are forecast to
increase from 28 deg C to near 29.5 deg C, and the depth of the warm
water is also expected to increase, which would tend to offset any
cold upwelling beneath Willa. The deep-layer shear is forecast to
increase to a little more than 10 kt during the next 36 hours, and
remain at that level during the duration of that time period. These
conditions would favor at least slight strengthening before the
internal dynamics of the hurricane in the form of an eyewall
replacement cycle (ERC) induces some weakening. With the eye
diameter already at 10-15 nmi, an ERC could begin at any time
during the next 12 hours. Shortly after 36 hours, the shear is
expected to increase sharply to more than 20 kt, which will cause
more significant weakening. However, Willa is still expected to be
near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall along the
west-central coast of Mexico. After landfall, the mountainous
terrain along with strong southwesterly wind shear of more than 30
kt will cause rapid weakening and dissipation of the cyclone inland
over north-central Mexico.
Key Messages:
1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
Islas Marias and the coast of southwestern Mexico by late Tuesday or
Wednesday morning, bringing a life-threatening storm surge and flash
flooding along with damaging hurricane-force winds. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect for these areas, and residents should rush
preparations to completion to protect life and property and follow
any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 18.2N 107.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 19.2N 107.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 20.4N 107.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 21.8N 106.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 23.8N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND WNCTRL MEXICO
72H 25/0600Z 27.0N 99.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart
-
Hurricane Willa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 220838
PWSEP4
HURRICANE WILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 64(66) 32(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 12(12) 71(83) 3(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 2( 2) 60(62) 6(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 44(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
SAN BLAS 34 X 4( 4) 52(56) 16(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 14(14) 14(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
P VALLARTA 34 1 11(12) 18(30) 7(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
P VALLARTA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MANZANILLO 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 110W 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Willa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 08:41:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 08:41:48 GMT
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