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Live Hurricane Tracker - Atlantic Basin
Live Hurricane Tracker - Eastern Pacific Basin
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Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
757
ABNT20 KNHC 151129
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Subtropical Depression Five located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Subtropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Tropical Depression Subtropical
Tropical Depression Five
-
Subtropical Depression Five Public Advisory Number 1
-
Subtropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018
645
WTNT25 KNHC 150836
TCMAT5
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 45.6W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 45.6W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 45.6W
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.5N 45.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.2N 44.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.5N 41.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 51.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.6N 45.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
-
Subtropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018
684
WTNT45 KNHC 150839
TCDAT5
Subtropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018
The low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been
monitoring over the central Atlantic Ocean has developed
sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center.
Since the system has a large radius of maximum wind and is
co-located with an upper-level low, it is being classified as a
subtropical depression. The initial intensity is set to a possibly
conservative 30 kt based on an earlier ASCAT pass. This value
is slightly below the latest satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.
It is interesting to note that so far this hurricane season, four of
the five systems have been a subtropical cyclone at some point in
their lifetimes.
Slow strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours or so while
the system remains over warm SSTs and in fairly low wind shear
conditions. After that time, sharply colder waters, drier air, and
a significant increase in wind shear should cause extratropical
transition in about 48 hours, or sooner, and a gradual weakening.
The models show the post-tropical system merging with a frontal zone
in 3 to 4 days.
The subtropical depression is moving slowly northward at about 4
kt. A north to north-northeastward motion is expected today as the
system moves on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. A mid-
to upper-level trough currently over the northeastern U.S. is
anticipated to approach the cyclone, and that feature should cause
the system to accelerate northeastward on Thursday and Friday.
The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies
near the middle of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 37.6N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 38.5N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 40.2N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 42.5N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0600Z 51.0N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
-
Subtropical Depression Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018
226
FONT15 KNHC 150837
PWSAT5
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
-
Subtropical Depression Five Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 08:38:30 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 09:26:41 GMT
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Atlantic Satellite Imagery
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Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
584
ABPZ20 KNHC 151136
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fourteen-E, located over 1000 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Depression Tropical
-
Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142018)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 15
the center of Fourteen-E was located near 10.8, -122.3
with movement W at 14 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E
-
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018
828
WTPZ34 KNHC 150834
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 122.3W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 122.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22
km/h), and this general motion over the open Pacific Ocean is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn to the
west-northwest is forecast to occur on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next three
days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm
later today and a hurricane by late Thursday or Friday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
]]>
-
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018
827
WTPZ24 KNHC 150834
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018
0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 122.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 122.3W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 121.7W
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.6N 124.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 10.6N 126.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 10.8N 128.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.1N 130.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.3N 135.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 13.8N 140.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 15.2N 144.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 122.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
-
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018
131
WTPZ44 KNHC 150834
TCDEP4
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018
Satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually getting
better organized with deep convection increasing near the center and
in curved bands over the western semicircle. The initial intensity
remains 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB, but it would not be surprising if the system was a
little stronger.
The depression continues to move just south of due west at about 12
kt. A deep-layer ridge situated to the north of the cyclone should
keep the system moving on a general westward path at about the same
forward speed during the next couple of days. After that time, the
models suggest that a mid- to upper-level low will cut off and cause
a break in the ridge. This change in the flow pattern should cause
the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest in the 3- to
5-day time frame. The models have generally shifted slightly to the
left this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that
direction.
The environmental conditions appear conducive for the cyclone to
strengthen during the next several days with the wind shear
expected to remain low, less than 10 kt, mid-level humidities fairly
high, and SSTs marginally warm. The intensity models respond to
these favorable conditions, and all of them now show the system
becoming a hurricane within the next few days. The NHC intensity
forecast follows that theme, and shows a faster rate of
strengthening than the previous forecast. This prediction lies
closest to the HCCA and ICON models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 10.8N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 10.6N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 10.6N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 10.8N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 11.1N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 12.3N 135.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 13.8N 140.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 15.2N 144.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
-
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018
133
FOPZ14 KNHC 150834
PWSEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018
0900 UTC WED AUG 15 2018
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 125W 34 15 40(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
10N 125W 50 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
10N 125W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
10N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 30(58) 4(62) X(62) X(62)
10N 130W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24)
10N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 6(40) X(40)
10N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13)
10N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) 1(30)
15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 4(20)
10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 12(50)
15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22)
15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34)
15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14)
15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
-
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 08:36:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 09:35:34 GMT
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