Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 052317
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over western
Africa and the far eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues
to produce some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system
is expected to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and some
slow development is possible early next week when it is expected to
be near the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
|
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052317
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 5 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jimena, located over the far western portion of the eastern
Pacific basin, and on Tropical Depression Hilda, located over 1300
miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred
miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico this weekend.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early
next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
parallel to and offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Jimena are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Jimena are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Tropical
-
Summary for Tropical Depression Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
...HILDA STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY...
As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 5
the center of Hilda was located near 22.2, -132.2
with movement NW at 13 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Hilda
-
Tropical Depression Hilda Public Advisory Number 26
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 060233
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Hilda Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021
...HILDA STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 132.2W
ABOUT 1420 MI...2290 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hilda
was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 132.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next day or so, and Hilda
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Friday and dissipate
on Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
]]>
-
Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 26
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 060233
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 132.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 132.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 131.7W
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.8N 133.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.5N 135.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.0N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 132.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
-
Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 26
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 060234
TCDEP3
Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021
The low-level center of Hilda has been partially exposed in visible
satellite imagery as the system struggles to sustain any organized
convection. Although a scatterometer pass around 1830 UTC showed
winds near tropical-storm-force in the northeastern quadrant, the
satellite presentation of Hilda has continued to deteriorate during
the past several hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is
maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so as Hilda moves
over even cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment.
These conditions should suppress new convective development, as
suggested by the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite
imagery. Thus, the latest NHC official forecast shows Hilda
degenerating into a remnant low on Friday. Thereafter, the weakening
remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough on Saturday, well
east of the Hawaiian Islands.
Hilda is moving northwestward or 305/11 kt. The cyclone is expected
to turn more west-northwestward overnight and maintain this heading
through dissipation as it moves along the southern periphery of a
low-level ridge to its north. The track models are still tightly
clustered, and the official NHC forecast has only been adjusted to
reflect the slower forward speed noted in the latest guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 22.2N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 22.8N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.5N 135.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1200Z 24.0N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
-
Tropical Depression Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 060233
PWSEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
-
Tropical Depression Hilda Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 02:35:03 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 03:22:29 GMT
Tropical Storm Tropical
-
Summary for Tropical Storm Jimena (EP4/EP092021)
...JIMENA NEARING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...
As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Aug 5
the center of Jimena was located near 16.9, -137.8
with movement NW at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Jimena
-
Tropical Storm Jimena Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 060231
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jimena Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021
...JIMENA NEARING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 137.8W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 137.8 West. Jimena is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual turn
to the west-northwest is expected during the next day or two.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours.
However, steady weakening is forecast after that and Jimena is
expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
]]>
-
Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021
000
WTPZ24 KNHC 060230
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 137.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 137.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 137.5W
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.2N 140.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 143.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.4N 144.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 137.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
-
Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 060231
TCDEP4
Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021
Jimena is approaching the Central Pacific basin. The compact
tropical storm has generally changed little during the past several
hours, and it continues to have curved bands that wrap across the
western half of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications from
TAFB, SAB, and the University of Wisconsin range from 35 to 45 kt.
The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, but Jimena could be a little
stronger. Unfortunately, all of the ASCAT passes missed the system
earlier today, but new data from the instrument may be available
tonight.
The storm continues to move northwestward at about 6 kt. A gradual
turn to the left, or toward the west, is expected during the
next few days as the storm loses deep convection and is steered
primarily by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast
has been adjusted to the south of the previous one, trending toward
the latest guidance.
Jimena has now crossed the 26 C isotherm and is expected to move
over progressively cooler waters during the next couple of days.
These cool waters combined with a drier airmass and an increase in
shear should cause steady weakening. Jimena is expected to become a
remnant low by 36 hours and dissipate in a few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 16.9N 137.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.2N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 19.0N 143.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/1200Z 19.4N 144.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
-
Tropical Storm Jimena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 060231
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
-
Tropical Storm Jimena Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 02:33:18 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 03:28:25 GMT
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