Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
704
ABPZ20 KNHC 250509
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2020
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lowell, located about 1100 miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.
An area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Some gradual
development will be possible thereafter while the system moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Tropical
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lowell (EP2/EP172020)
...LOWELL SLOWLY WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...
As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Sep 24
the center of Lowell was located near 21.8, -127.0
with movement W at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Lowell
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Tropical Storm Lowell Public Advisory Number 18
Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2020
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 250232
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
500 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2020
...LOWELL SLOWLY WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 127.0W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 127.0 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion at
a slightly faster forward speed is expected for the next several
days.
Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Lowell is forecast to
become a remnant low on Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
]]>
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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 18
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2020
000
WTPZ22 KNHC 250232
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2020
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 127.0W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 127.0W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 126.4W
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.9N 128.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.8N 131.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.6N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.5N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.4N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.4N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N 149.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 127.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 18
Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2020
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250232
TCDEP2
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
500 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2020
Lowell is now producing a small band of deep convection in the
southeastern semicircle, but as in the previous advisory it is
otherwise largely a low-level cloud swirl. Satellite intensity
estimates have decreased a little over the past 6 h, so the initial
intensity is lowered to 35 kt. The cyclone is over cool sea
surface temperatures of 24C, and it should encounter even cooler
waters during the next day or two. Between this, increasing
westerly shear, and entrainment of stable air, Lowell should
degenerate to a remnant low between 24-36 h, if not sooner. The
global models indicate that the remnant low is likely to survive
through 120 h, and the intensity forecast follows this guidance.
The initial motion is now westward or 275/10 kt. A generally
westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected for
the next several days as Lowell or its remnants are steered by
easterly flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new track forecast is
changed little from the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 21.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 21.9N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 21.8N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 21.6N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 21.5N 136.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1200Z 21.4N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z 21.4N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z 21.5N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 22.5N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2020
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 250232
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2020
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 130W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Lowell Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2020 02:34:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2020 03:32:31 GMT
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