Tropical and Hurricane Activity

• Atlantic Activity, Outlook & Satellite
• Pacific Activity, Outlook, & Satellite

000
ABNT20 KNHC 140544
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland,
Canada.

A broad area of low pressure is located over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the west coast of Africa with
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward near
or northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds
should prevent any further development by midweek. This system is
forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands later today through Tuesday, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea and parts of Central America are associated with
a broad area of low pressure over eastern Honduras. This system is
forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across northern
Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which should
prevent tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days.  By
Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over the
southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more
conducive for some organization to occur.  Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next few days, which could
cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.  While
thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, upper-level
winds are not particularly conducive for significant development of
this system over the next couple of days while it moves westward at
around 15 mph.  By Wednesday, as the wave approaches the Windward
Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for
any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Melissa (AT4/AL142019)
  

  ...MELISSA WEAKENS OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...DANGEROUS SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA...
   As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 13
   the center of Melissa was located near 40.2, -56.7
   with movement ENE at 18 mph.
   The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
   with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Melissa

• Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 11
  
• Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 11
  

  Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2019  
  
  000
  WTNT24 KNHC 140244
  TCMAT4
  
  TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142019
  0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2019
  
  THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
  
  TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N  56.7W AT 14/0300Z
  POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
  
  PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT  16 KT
  
  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
  34 KT.......  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
  12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW  60NW.
  WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
  MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
  REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N  56.7W AT 14/0300Z
  AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N  57.9W
  
  FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 40.8N  53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
  FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 41.5N  47.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
  FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 41.7N  40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
  FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
  REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N  56.7W
  
  NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
  
  $$
  FORECASTER BROWN
  
  
  

• Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 11
  

  Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019  
  
  000
  WTNT44 KNHC 140245
  TCDAT4
  
  Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number  11
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
  1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019
  
  Deep convection associated with Melissa has continued to decrease
  in coverage this evening, and the system has become an exposed
  swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  The initial intensity has been
  held at 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak
  current intensity (CI) number and recent ASCAT data that
  revealed some 30-kt winds well southeast of the center.  Strong
  westerly vertical wind shear and cool SSTs along the path of
  storm is expected to cause weakening, and Melissa should degenerate
  into a remnant low later tonight or early Monday.  The global
  models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed
  by a frontal boundary in 2 to 3 days.
  
  Melissa is moving east-northeastward or 075/16 kt.  There has been
  no change to the previous track forecast reasoning.  Melissa should
  accelerate east-northeastward to eastward during the next day or
  two as it remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow.
  The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
  and near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.
  
  
  FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
  INIT  14/0300Z 40.2N  56.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
   12H  14/1200Z 40.8N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   24H  15/0000Z 41.5N  47.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   36H  15/1200Z 41.7N  40.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   48H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
  $$
  Forecaster Brown
  
  

• Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
  

  Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2019                                              
  
  000
  FONT14 KNHC 140245
  PWSAT4
                                                                      
  TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11          
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142019               
  0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2019                                            
                                                                      
  AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
  LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
  WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                      
  Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
     ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                      
  WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                      
  CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
     ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
     ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
     ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
  FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
      OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
          AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
     (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
          00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
  THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
  64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                      
                                                                      
    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                      
                 FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
    TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
  PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
               12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                      
  FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                      
  $$                                                                  
  FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
  

• Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics
  
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 02:46:35 GMT
  
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 03:24:16 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 140534
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Baja
California Sur, the Gulf of California, and western Mexico are
associated with an elongated area of low pressure.  Upper-level
winds are increasing over the system, and the chances for
significant development continue to decrease as the low moves slowly
north-northeastward.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with this system is likely to continue across portions of
Baja California Sur, southern Sonora, and northern Sinaloa through
Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Gradual development is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just
offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 14 Oct 2019 05:59:17 GMT

Tropical weather data courtesy of ...

• Weather Underground Tropical Weather
• National Hurricane Center