Tropical and Hurricane Activity

• Atlantic Activity, Outlook & Satellite
• Pacific Activity, Outlook, & Satellite

425 
ABNT20 KNHC 061132
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Twelve, located several hundred miles west-northwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands.

Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure located over the far 
southeastern Caribbean Sea just off the coast of Venezuela 
continues to produce an expansive area of showers and thunderstorms 
over the southern Windward Islands, northern South America, and 
adjacent waters.  While land interaction with the northern coast of 
South America may hinder significant development during the next 
day or so, environmental conditions are expected to be mostly 
conducive for development while the system moves westward at about 
15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day 
or two by the time it enters the south-central Caribbean Sea.  
Additional strengthening is anticipated while the system moves 
westward over the southwestern Caribbean Sea toward Central America 
late Friday through Sunday.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, 
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of 
the Windward Islands, northern portions of Venezuela including 
Isla Margarita, the ABC Islands, and the Guajira Peninsula of 
Colombia during the next day or two.  Interests in those locations, 
in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor 
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Key messages for the disturbance over the far southeastern Caribbean 
Sea can be found on the National Hurricane Center website at 
www.hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Depression Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Depression Twelve (AT2/AL122022)
  

  ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...
   As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 6
   the center of Twelve was located near 18.0, -33.4
   with movement WNW at 13 mph.
   The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
   with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Twelve

• Tropical Depression Twelve Public Advisory Number 7
  
• Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Advisory Number 7
  

  Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 06 2022  
  
  000
  WTNT22 KNHC 060845
  TCMAT2
   
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122022
  0900 UTC THU OCT 06 2022
   
  THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
   
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  33.4W AT 06/0900Z
  POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
   
  PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT
   
  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
  WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
  MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
   
  REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  33.4W AT 06/0900Z
  AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  32.9W
   
  FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.8N  34.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
   
  FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.3N  37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
   
  FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
   
  REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  33.4W
   
  NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
   
  $$
  FORECASTER BUCCI
   
   
  

• Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Discussion Number 7
  

  Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022  
  
  000
  WTNT42 KNHC 060846
  TCDAT2
   
  Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   7
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
  500 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022
   
  Once again, the low-level circulation of the depression has 
  separated from the deep convection, which is located over 50 miles 
  to the east-northeast of the center.  Subjective satellite intensity 
  estimates have held steady and the initial intensity remains at 30 
  kt.  The already strong west-southwesterly vertical wind shear is 
  forecast to increase further in the next day or so and will likely 
  cause the cyclone to weaken quickly.  Most of the global models 
  suggest the system will open into a trough within a day or two.  The 
  official forecast now shows the depression becoming a post-tropical 
  remnant low in 12 hours and dissipated by 36 hours.
  
  The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt.  This 
  general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so while 
  the system follows the low-level flow around a ridge to the north.  
  The NHC track forecast has shifted south from the previous forecast 
  possibly due to the more westward initial position and is on the 
  northern edge of the guidance envelope.
   
   
  FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
   
  INIT  06/0900Z 18.0N  33.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
   12H  06/1800Z 18.8N  34.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   24H  07/0600Z 19.3N  37.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   36H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
   
  $$
  Forecaster Bucci
   
  

• Tropical Depression Twelve Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
  

  Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 06 2022                                              
  
  000
  FONT12 KNHC 060845
  PWSAT2
                                                                      
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7      
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122022               
  0900 UTC THU OCT 06 2022                                            
                                                                      
  AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR  
  LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
  WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                      
  Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
     ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                      
  WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                      
  CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
     ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
     ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
     ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
  FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
      OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
          AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
     (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
          06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
  THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
  64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                      
                                                                      
    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                      
                 FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
    TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
  PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
               18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                      
  FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                      
  $$                                                                  
  FORECASTER BUCCI                                                    
  

• Tropical Depression Twelve Graphics
  
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Oct 2022 08:47:15 GMT
  
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Oct 2022 09:23:39 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061110
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 06 Oct 2022 11:44:10 GMT

Tropical weather data courtesy of ...

• Weather Underground Tropical Weather
• National Hurricane Center