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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
National Weather Service Forecast 48 Hour Graphical Forecast Today's Weather Story |
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000 FXUS65 KBOU 061119 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 419 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 419 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2023 Lots going on today, though it may not amount to much beyond wind. Frontal shower band associated with the main shortwave trough is moving over our mountains now. Vail Pass looks pretty messy, but the back edge of the band is about there. So the main period of snow should be past the I-70 mountain corridor by 6 AM. Some light snow will continue behind it, but from a pretty shallow cloud layer. We`ve had a couple little ripples in the winds the last few hours, but there will be a stronger, better organized push of WNW winds with what`s left of the shower band (virga or maybe just the winds) coming across Denver through mid morning. There could be peak winds in the 30-40 mph range, and maybe even higher up near the Wyoming border as this little pop of wind goes by. After that, we should be more northwest and maybe not quite as strong for a bit. So that`s the morning. This afternoon into early evening, we`ll have a batch of convection associated with the cold pool aloft now over northwest Wyoming sagging across the mountains and adjacent plains. The laps rates will be decent for several hours, but there`s not a lot of moisture. The general low level winds should still be northwesterly, but some anticyclonic turning into the foothills may help a little with the low level drying, especially south of Denver. We expect a fair coverage of weak showers, but very little of this to stick given likely air temperatures in the mid to upper 30s as it comes through. Better odds of an inch of snow in the foothills and maybe southern Douglas county where this will be colder and last a little later into the evening. There should be pretty good clearing and drying on the plains later tonight. Some lingering clouds for the mountains but probably not much snow. Other than temperature adjustments for the mountains being warmer at the current hour, not much else needed to be changed for the temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 419 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2023 Tuesday... Weak ridging aloft will result in a period of dry conditions Tuesday through a decent portion of Wednesday. Highs will be slightly below normal in the upper 30s/40s in the plains and urban corridor and 20s/30s for most of the high country. Wednesday and Thursday... Wednesday will be a bit warmer with some recovery in the 700mb temperatures. The next system approaches from the northwest with flow aloft becoming zonal. QG ascent increases late afternoon with a sufficient moist layer over the high country developing. This will get snowfall initiated in the high country starting the afternoon. Westerly component winds increase a good amount over the high country and a front drops southeastward from the high country across the plains Wednesday evening. This will support gusty NW winds in most areas. Ensembles show a good chance for gusts 35-45 mph. Some of the high peaks and portions of the plains (Cheyenne Ridge) may experience locally higher gusts. Snow continues in the high country overnight. As the front drops south that evening, the plains may see a chance for a band/organized area of snow showers to push across with the better chances south and east of the Denver metro (40-50%). Overall, this isn`t looking like a favorable event for the plains. The lack of upslope flow will again result in a layer of dry air to overcome. This is reflected in the model soundings for DEN as well. There is some uncertainty in the exact details of the system, but overall this system is not likely to cause major impacts. The system is quite progressive with dry, subsident air working in towards the afternoon Thursday. This will decrease snow across the high country throughout the day. For the event, accumulations in the mountains still look to fall in the 3-7" range. Lower confidence in amounts for the plains due to dry air limiting snow. At most, a trace to an inch for the urban corridor and plains. Minor impacts to travel can be anticipated for the high country due to falling snow, slick roads. With gusty winds continuing through Thursday, blowing snow may also be a factor in areas receiving fresh snowfall, mainly the higher elevations. The post-frontal airmass will be quite a bit cooler keeping highs in the 30s across the plains. Friday through the weekend... Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that an upper level ridge pushes into the region Friday bringing dry conditions and a slow warming trend. By Saturday, a good percentage of members show highs rebounding to above-normal values. An upper level trough approaches the region Sunday. At this point, model consensus keeps the system well south of Colorado which includes the better moisture and synoptic support. Another shot of snowfall for the mountains is looking more likely this far out. Will have to keep an eye on it for any tracking changes this week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 419 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2023 West winds at 15-30 knots will develop over most of the Denver area by 13z, and then shift to northwest as a cold front passes between 15z-17z. A period of ceilings in the 060-080 range is expected between 20z and 04z with isolated snow showers. Winds will diminish after 00z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for COZ031. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gimmestad LONG TERM...Mensch AVIATION...Gimmestad NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion
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