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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
National Weather Service Forecast 48 Hour Graphical Forecast Today's Weather Story |
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000 FXUS65 KBOU 190951 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 351 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 347 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Relatively dry and weak zonal flow will remain in place through tonight. There is some slight destabilization noted on the forecast soundings, so the going low PoPs mostly in the mountains and Palmer Divide area seem reasonable. There will also likely be a weak surface convergence zone over the far eastern plains associated with the lee trough, and perhaps just enough moisture convergence along this line to pop a couple late afternoon storms as well. Showers and storms will be high based today producing gusty outflow winds and only light rainfall. Temperatures will warm about 2-3C across the plains from yesterday, due to the dry westerly flow aloft. Any evening convection should dissipate by or shortly after dark with the loss of daytime heating and no synoptic scale support. Lows tonight will be near seasonal norms. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 347 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Flow aloft will turn more south of westerly Sunday for a slight increase in subtropical moisture. Convection will fire off again over the high terrain with a slight chance over the Palmer Divide and far eastern plains. Main impacts will be gusty outflow winds and some possible hail as shear begins to increase. Temperatures will be similar to slightly cooler than today`s readings as more cloud cover will be moving in. Sunday night, models continue to hint at possible clouds overnight as weak upward QG motion dives in from the north and moisture continues to surge up from the southwest. The GFS continues to be the dries while the NAM, GEM and EC show at least partly cloudy skies with some hints of light precipitation. Not trusting any of the precipitation at this point, but with the upward QG and increase in moisture, do not see a reason not to go at least partly cloudy early Monday morning. A shortwave will be pushing south along the northern Rockies on Monday which will kick off storms over the high terrain and north of the state in the early afternoon, this could also help some clouds remain in the forecast through the eclipse viewing time - not expecting totally clear skies at this time. Stronger storms may form over the far northeastern corner of the state, where better instability and shear exist. A cold front will be trailing south that evening, keeping a chance of storms and showers through most of the night, especially along and east of the Divide. The front will drop temperatures below seasonal normals Tuesday and Wednesday as high surface pressure keeps weak upslope flow into the area, with increasing coverage of storms. Another shortwave moving in from the Great Basin Thursday will turn flow aloft more southerly and bring another surge of subtropical moisture for another increase in storm coverage, especially Thursday, possibly into Friday. Then flow will return to zonal as the upper ridge builds back over the desert southwest, for warmer and drier weather for the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 347 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017 VFR conditions will persist through Sunday morning. There should be some high based convection but for the most part this should stay confined to areas south and west of KDEN. However, there`s still about a 20% chance of gusty outflow winds to 30 knots. Otherwise fairly normal and light diurnal winds should prevail at speeds 10 knots or less. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...Kriederman AVIATION...Barjenbruch NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion
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