National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
Thornton Weather Forecast Today's Forecast Story |
000 FXUS65 KBOU 191124 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 524 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer weather, with occasional scattered light mountain snow showers this upcoming week. - There continues to be the potential for a early Spring snow storm late this coming weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 233 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Flow aloft will be weak through tonight as the stubborn upper level low remains over the Desert Southwest while northwest flow aloft prevails over much of the eastern half of the country. Satellite imagery showing clear skies over the region. The day will begin sunny. Clouds form this afternoon over the higher terrain to the southwest of Denver. Can`t rule out a few brief snow showers with this activity. Any accumulation is expected to be light and less than an inch. Some of these clouds will drift eastward through tonight bringing partly cloudy skies. Warming trend continues today with highs about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. This will put highs in the 60s across northeast Colorado. A mild night is expected as well with lows in the upper 20s and 30s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 336 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Weak upper troughing is progged on Wednesday into early evening as the old closed low finally moves eastward across New Mexico. Upper ridging moves into the CWA early Thursday morning continuing through Thursday night. The flow aloft is pretty weak through the period; northwesterly Wednesday into Thursday morning, then zonal through Thursday night. The low level pressure and wind fields point to a pretty weak pressure gradient across the CWA with normal diurnal wind patterns expected Wednesday through Thursday night. Moisture is mostly lacking with just enough for limited high mountain scattered snow showers Wednesday afternoon and again Thursday evening. Temperatures are fairly warm both Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday looks to be the warmest of the two days with highs about 10 degrees F above normals over the foothills and plains. For the later days, Friday through Monday, models continue showing upper ridging over the CWA Friday through Saturday. By Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon, a strong west-southwesterly upper jet maximum is over southern Colorado. Moisture increases with the jet, especially for the mountains, so models show decent alpine snows to commence Saturday afternoon. A fairly strong upper trough is progged to move across our state late Sunday through late Monday. The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly decent agreement with this features, the later being a tad quicker. Those models show a pretty cold airmass to move into the CWA as well, first late Sunday afternoon with reinforcement towards Monday dawn. There is decent upslope progged with the system and potential for a substantial snowfall in the foothills and mountains from the divide eastward. Maybe the immediate plains and Urban Corridor too. We`ll see as that is still several days away. The temperatures are progged to be above normal Friday and Saturday, cooling down Sunday and moreso on Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 524 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 VFR to prevail through tonight. Skies will be clear this morning with mid clouds increasing after 18Z, mainly over the higher terrain at first. The clouds then spread eastward through this evening, with ceilings staying above 6000 feet. Southerly drainage winds will prevail through about 15-16Z at DEN and APA, then winds become light through this afternoon. Wind direction will be a challenge to forecast, but speeds will stay under 15 knots and most of the time be less than 10 knots. Winds return to a drainage direction after 00Z Wednesday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Meier LONG TERM....RJK AVIATION...Meier