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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
National Weather Service Forecast 48 Hour Graphical Forecast WXSIM Forecast |
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000 FXUS65 KBOU 051045 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 343 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 .SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER UTAH AND WRN COLORADO AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THRU TONIGHT WITH WK SW FLOW ALOFT. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE MTNS BY AFTN WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE. THUS MAY SEE SOME SCT -SHSN DEVELOP BY AFTN WHICH WILL LINGER THRU TONIGHT. EAST OF THE MTNS IT SHOULD BE DRY THRU TONIGHT. AFTN HIGHS OVER NERN CO WILL BE ALTERED BY SNOWPACK ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AREAS OF NERN CO WHILE FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BORDER SNOW COVER IS FAR LESS. SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK OVER DEEPER SNOWPACK SO GFS TEMPS LOOK MORE REALISTIC THAN NAM HIGHS AT THIS POINT. THUS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE DEEPER SNOW COVER AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS WITH FAR LESS SNOW COVER. .LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. IT OPENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY IS PROGGED ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN DOWNWARD ENERGY IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED INTO THE CWA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON... CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT AROUND MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON ALL THE MODELS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THE REST OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE. MOISTURE IS PRETTY SPARSE OVER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A BIT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN OVER ALL THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A TAD OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN NOTHING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE... SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...AND A BIT BETTER PLAIN`S UPSLOPE THAN THEY HAD YESTERDAY CONCERNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT`S POPS. WILL GO WITH "CHANCE"S IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN "LIKELY"S MONDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL GO WITH 20-40%S...BEST DURING MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS. MOUNTAIN ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. FOR TEMPERATURES... MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE 0-1.5 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. TUESDAY`S READINGS LOOK 1-4 C COLDER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LACKING ON THE GFS...BUT THERE IS A BIT MORE ON THE ECMWF THE THURSDAY NIGHT TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU TONIGHT. LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT ELY BY AFTN AND THEN TRANSITION BACK TO DRAINAGE AFTER SUNSET. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RPK LONG TERM....RJK AVIATION...RPK< NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion
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