National Weather Service Forecast Discussion for Thornton and Denver, Colorado

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 060927
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
327 AM MDT Thu Oct 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Weak NNW flow aloft will be in place today with a rather dry
airmass. However, still can`t rule out an isold aftn shower or
storm, over the higher terrain, south of I-70. Across nern CO, it
will be dry with aftn highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For tonight, a cold front will move across the plains with easterly
low level flow developing. Meanwhile, NW flow aloft will increase
as an upper level jet affects portions of nern CO overnight. This
feature may allow for the development of showers over the far
nern plains after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Oct 6 2022

The cold front passing through Thursday night will lead to much
cooler temperatures for Friday. There may be a few showers across
the far northeastern corner of the state but the majority of
precipitation should remain to our northeast. As upslope flow
deepens behind the front a few showers or perhaps an isolated
storm may develop over the Foothills and Palmer Divide. High
temperatures during the afternoon will reach the 50s across most
of the forecast area. Middle Park may end up being the warm spot
in the CWA with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Saturday will see temperatures rebound back into the 60s
underneath light northwesterly flow. A weak shortwave, combined
with some lingering mid-level moisture should be enough for
isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the
higher terrain. It should remain dry over most of the plains.

A mild and drier pattern will return Sunday and continue into
early next week as we gradually shift towards southwesterly flow
aloft. A few showers and storms can`t be ruled out across the high
country each afternoon with dry weather likely for the plains.
Highs should reach the low to mid 70s. By mid next week, guidance
is now in fairly good agreement on a strong upper trough advancing
across the northern Rockies, with one piece of this trough
cutting off well west of the area. The general trend over the past
few model cycles has been towards a weaker/further west solution,
and impactful weather is looking less likely with this system. At
the very least, slightly cooler weather is forecast for Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Drainage winds early this morning will become light WSW by 15z. By
early aftn should see easterly winds develop. The easterly winds
will continue this evening as a cold front moves across. Winds
will become more ENE after 06z with IFR ceilings developing by
12z Fri.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...Hiris
AVIATION...RPK

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