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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
National Weather Service Forecast 48 Hour Graphical Forecast Today's Weather Story |
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000 FXUS65 KBOU 282347 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 447 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 136 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2023 A moderate to strong zonal flow is will be over northern CO through this evening, with an area of weak mid/upper level qg ascent in place as a short wave trough move across WY. MRMS is showing some snow banding occurring over the mountains and spreading into the urban corridor early this afternoon. A colder airmass has spread into nearly all of northeast plains and will settle along the Front Range Foothills and Palmer Divide through Sunday. The best chance of snow through this evening will be through this evening as the Pacific moisture continues to overrun the shallow arctic airmass. Although the depth of the moisture will be fairly shallow from the urban corridor eastward, there will be enough moisture in the mid/upper level coupled with the upper level jet to keep the banded snowfall in place until 01-02z. Will continue with the Winter highlights for the mountains through 5 pm this afternoon, but no plans to extend them at this time. The banded snowfall could be an issue for skiers making their way back to Denver this afternoon, so be prepared for possible delays. Later in the evening, spatial cross-sections show some drying in the mid/upper levels which could lead to a brief period of light freezing later this evening. Late tonight into Sunday, light snowfall may linger primarily along the west facing slopes north of Interstate 70, but decreasing elsewhere with weakening upper level support. Across the northeast plains, the low level moisture will deepen slightly, but it will be cold enough to stay as light snow. South of Interstate 70 over eastern Elbert and Lincoln counties, there will be less moisture aloft with no seeders. Best chance of fog will be down in this area tonight into Sunday morning. On Sunday another trough drops southward out of the Pacific Northwest. Generally weak mid/upper level qg ascent with the best moisture through the afternoon over zone 31. Although the best chance of accumulating snowfall will be north of I-70, there are no plans to expand the winter weather highlights into zone 33 at this time. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 136 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2023 A shortwave trough looks to move over northeastern Colorado Sunday to Monday night. There is some model variability in timing and location. The surface low will likely be located over southeastern Colorado which will bring weak upslope flow to the area. Along with this trough a cold air mass will be in place and near record temperatures could be reached early in the week. Sunday we increased POPs over what NBM had, with weak upslope flow less than one inch of snow is expected for lower elevations through Monday. The northern mountains will continue to see heavier snowfall. Along the I-70 mountain corridor lighter snowfall amounts are expected. Temperatures will drop off significantly with highs in the teens and lows into the negative single digits. Windchill temperatures will be well into the negative teens. Monday will remain cold and snow will begin to lessen over the northern mountains as the trough exits. Light upslope flow will continue which could give light flurries to the front range and plains with less than one inch of accumulation. Windchill temperatures will be much colder Monday morning especially for the plains with values close the the negative 20 degree mark. Tuesday the trough will hopefully have passed and winds switch back to a more westerly flow. Thanks to this downslope flow we will see some warming across the front range. Temperatures could climb back into the high 20s to low 30s. Wednesday through Friday show drying and warming with a small ridge building Wednesday night through Friday. Another chance at a shortwave trough comes through Friday evening into Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 439 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2023 Quite varying conditions within the areal extent across the terminals. KDEN has dropped to 1/4 mile visibility and don`t see any reason why that will change much through the night. BJC cigs also dropping into IFR the past hour while the low stratus is just flirting with APA. All terminals will be IFR for much of tonight but not expecting much -sn or freezing drizzle, spotty at best so won`t mention in TAF`s for now. Slowly lifting ceilings/vsbys Sunday morning but overall confidence in that is low. Could see another shot light snow by Sunday evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ031- 033. Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 5 PM MST Monday for COZ031. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ034. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cooper LONG TERM...Chavez/Gimmestad AVIATION...Entrekin NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion
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