National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KBOU 280957
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
357 AM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021

A strong northwesterly jet is still evident across the region as an
upper level ridge slowly builds in. As a result, areas of the plains
and higher terrain continue to remain gusty this morning. Dakota
Hill recorded a gust of 50 mph around 3:30 this morning. Radar shows
light returns in the high mountains indicating scattered snow
showers persisting.

An upper level ridge will push into the region today pushing the
 NW-SE jet max eastward. This will eventually decrease winds into
the evening hours. Gusty winds will prevail through the early
afternoon hours over the mountains and eastern plains with gusts
up to 40 mph possible. The upper level ridge will promote dry
conditions across the area today. Model cross sections show
moisture to stay in place over the higher terrain in the morning
hours which should support chances for lingering light snow
showers. Caution should be taken traveling early this morning,
especially over the higher mountain passes where roads are snow
covered or slick. Rising temperatures throughout the day will
reduce impacts. Ridging aloft and mostly sunny skies will promote
high temperatures near normal in the 50s/60s across the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Flat upper level ridge will slide east across the Central Rockies
Friday. This will bring mild and dry conditions across the area.
Cross sections show the airmass will be very dry with very little
to no clouds expected. Temperatures will climb into the upper 60s
to lower 70s. The ridge slides off to the east Saturday as an
upper level trough moves south over the Northern Rockies. A cold
front associated with this system will drop south across eastern
Colorado during the day. High temperatures for Saturday will be
more uncertain because of this. For now, will go with 60s over
northeast Colorado. An earlier cold front passage will lead to
colder temperatures for Saturday. The colder air will be
entrenched over northeast Colorado Sunday. Highs should only be in
the 40s. Best chance for precipitation will be Sunday evening and
into the overnight hours when a weak trough is expected to move
over the region. It should be cold enough that most of the
precipitation will fall as snow after sunset.

For next week, still not much run to run model agreement or
agreement among the models on the smaller features that will play
a big part in our weather. Long wave trough over northeast North
America will keep a northwest flow aloft over Colorado. Cooler air
is expected to remain over the region. Subtle jet streaks and
troughs should bring periods of light snow. For Monday, weak
easterly upslope flow will prevail. A trough passing north of
Colorado may produce enough lift for rain/snow. Temperatures will
remain cool Monday and into Tuesday. For Tuesday, some models are
showing a short wave trough moving over the Central Rockies. Will
keep PoPs in the forecast for this system. The chance for rain and
snow will continue Wednesday with northwest flow aloft expected
to prevail. These weak quick moving systems next week should
continue to be a challenge for the models to resolve the next few
days. Precipitation amounts with these systems are looking light
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Thu Oct 28 2021

VFR conditions are expected this morning through tonight.
Winds become southwesterly in the morning hours at APA and BJC
with light and variables winds at DEN.
Given model agreement, there is sufficient confidence for the
development of anticyclonic circulation (Longmont Anticyclone)
tomorrow afternoon. If placement of the circulation remains
consistent, can expect N winds becoming easterly into the late
afternoon at DEN with increased winds and gusts up to 18 mph. S/SE
flow will likely prevail at BJC with the circulation to the NNE.
Winds gradually return to to drainage with light southwesterly
component flow by late evening.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Mensch

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion