Tag Archives: Winter Outlook

NOAA Winter Outlook: Little clarity as to El Niño’s impact on Thornton

Temperature - U.S. Winter Outlook: 2015-2016.  Click for larger view. (NOAA)
Temperature – U.S. Winter Outlook: 2015-2016. Click for larger view. (NOAA)

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released their 2015-2016 winter outlook this morning and while a strong El Niño will play a factor in some parts of the nation, its effects here are less clear.

As we have written about before, Colorado’s geographical location well inland, shelters it some from the effects of warm, Pacific waters.   Overall snowfall in Colorado during El Niño years has not trended greatly one way or another.  We have however seen some of our largest storms during El Niño.

NOAA’s outlook shows a pretty typical El Niño situation with some locations of the nation expected to receive copious amounts of moisture.  For us, it does point to a bit better chance of a wetter than normal period from December to February.

Read the complete text of NOAA’s outlook below.  At the bottom is the video they released to accompany it.

From NOAA:

Precipitation - U.S. Winter Outlook: 2015-2016. Click for larger view. (NOAA)
Precipitation – U.S. Winter Outlook: 2015-2016. Click for larger view. (NOAA)

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook today favoring cooler and wetter weather in Southern Tier states with above-average temperatures most likely in the West and across the Northern Tier. This year’s El Niño, among the strongest on record, is expected to influence weather and climate patterns this winter by impacting the position of the Pacific jet stream.

“A strong El Niño is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are favored, El Niño is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snow storms will likely occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale.”

Other factors that often play a role in the winter weather include the Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and nor’easters on the East Coast, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can impact the number of heavy rain storms in the Pacific Northwest.

The 2015 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):

Precipitation Outlook:

  • Wetter-than-average conditions most likely in the Southern Tier of the United States, from central and southern California, across Texas, to Florida, and up the East Coast to southern New England. Above-average precipitation is also favored in southeastern Alaska.
  • Drier-than-average conditions most likely for Hawaii, central and western Alaska, parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, and for areas near the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Temperature Outlook:

  • Above-average temperatures are favored across much of the West and the northern half of the contiguous United States. Temperatures are also favored to be above-average in Alaska and much of Hawaii. Below-average temperatures are most likely in the southern Plains and Southeast.

Drought Outlook:

  • The U.S. Drought Outlook shows some improvement is likely in central and southern California by the end of January, but not drought removal. Additional statewide relief is possible during February and March. Drought removal is likely across large parts of the Southwest, while improvement or removal is also likely in the southern Plains. However, drought is likely to persist in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with drought development likely in Hawaii, parts of the northern Plains and in the northern Great Lakes region.

While it is good news that drought improvement is predicted for California, one season of above-average rain and snow is unlikely to remove four years of drought,” said Halpert. “California would need close to twice its normal rainfall to get out of drought and that’s unlikely.”

This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

NOAA produces seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for what’s likely to come in the next few months and minimize weather’s impacts on lives and livelihoods. Empowering people with actionable forecasts and winter weather tips is key to NOAA’s effort to build a Weather-Ready Nation.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and our other social media channels.

Updated NOAA outlook for winter indicates chance for increased precipitation for northern Colorado

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released updated outlooks for winter 2011 – 2012 indicating it could be a snowy one for the northern half of Colorado.

The original outlooks from the agency released previously offered a drier picture, primarily based on the influences of La Niña in the Pacific.  Given however that the current event is relatively mild, its effects are limited, particularly this far inland.

For the meteorological winter from December 2011 to February 2012, NOAA places virtually all of Colorado in an area that has equal chance of well above, well below, or near-normal temperatures.  However, the northern half of the state, including Denver, is given a 33% chance of experiencing above normal precipitation.

NOAA said:

The winter outlook for this winter favors above average temperatures across much of the South, from New Mexico across the Southeast to the Atlantic coast… and also favors below average temperatures across much of the Northern plain, the Northern Rockies, the Pacific Northwest, and a good part of the West as well as the southern half of Alaska.

With regards to precipitation, we see those areas most likely to experience below-average precipitation across the South– in particular Florida and Texas– with a better than even chance of being wetter than average across much of the North– particularly from the Ohio valley and the Northern Rockies and the Pacific Northwest.

Last year, Denver experienced second least snowiest snow season on record as the city only recorded 22.8 inches (21.2 inches in Thornton).  This season the picture is much improved with 22.2 inches having been recorded so far – nearly as much as all of last season.

NOAA's updated Winter 2011 - 2012 outlook. Click the image for a larger view. (NOAA)
NOAA's updated Winter 2011 - 2012 outlook. Click the image for a larger view. (NOAA)

On the net: