The next time severe weather strikes, don’t be surprised to receive a message on your cellular phone from Uncle Sam warning you of the danger. A new service launched by NOAA’s National Weather Service and the nation’s wireless service providers has begun sending out weather warnings to mobile phones. Get more details on this new potentially life-saving system on Examiner.com. Remember too that ThorntonWeather.com offers severe weather alerts via email.
The coronal mass ejection (CME) that resulted from the solar flare on Thursday has begun hitting the Earth. Satellite and terrestrial stations began picking up the increase in geomagnetic activity at around 1:00pm MDT Saturday.
The solar flare was a significant one as is the CME however it is not expected to be powerful enough to have any ill effects on earth. More significant events can affect satellites and even bring down power grids.
Here on Earth the most notable effect will be an increase in aurora activity. Unfortunately it doesn’t appear the CME is strong enough to push the aurora down to Colorado but areas across the northern latitudes of the contiguous United States may be treated to a show.
Aurora forecasts:
Related:
The video below from NASA combines various wavelength views from the Solar Dynamic Observatory’s (SDO) AIA instrument.
Mother Nature can be destructive but one weather forecast that recently appeared on YouTube called for conditions approaching Armageddon. The video, recorded by a WTVR Richmond meteorologist, calls for everything from a volcano causing temperatures of 400 degrees to an attack by Godzilla. Read more about this apocalyptic forecast on Examiner.com and check out the video!
A very large solar flare erupted on the Sun yesterday and the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is speeding toward the Earth right now. It is expected to arrive early Saturday morning (4:30am MDT + / – 7 hours) and if you can get away from the city lights, even northern Colorado has a chance to see the heightened aurorae. Here is some good background info on solar flares and CMEs from NASA.
Aurora forecasts:
From NASA:
Space weather starts at the Sun. It begins with an eruption such as a huge burst of light and radiation called a solar flare or a gigantic cloud of solar material called a coronal mass ejection (CME). But the effects of those eruptions happen at Earth, or at least near-Earth space. Scientists monitor several kinds of space “weather” events — geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts – all caused by these immense explosions on the Sun.
One of the most common forms of space weather, a geomagnetic storm refers to any time Earth’s magnetic environment, the magnetosphere, undergoes sudden and repeated change. This is a time when magnetic fields continually re-align and energy dances quickly from one area to another.
Geomagnetic Storms
Geomagnetic storms occur when certain types of CMEs connect up with the outside of the magnetosphere for an extended period of time. The solar material in a CME travels with its own set of magnetic fields. If the fields point northward, they align with the magnetosphere’s own fields and the energy and particles simply slide around Earth, causing little change. But if the magnetic fields point southward, in the opposite direction of Earth’s fields, the effects can be dramatic. The sun’s magnetic fields peel back the outermost layers of Earth’s fields changing the whole shape of the magnetosphere. This is the initial phase of a geomagnetic storm.
The next phase, the main phase, can last hours to days, as charged particles sweeping into the magnetosphere accumulate more energy and more speed. These particles penetrate closer and closer to the planet. During this phase viewers on Earth may see bright aurora at lower latitudes than usual. The increase – and lower altitude – of radiation can also damage satellites traveling around Earth.
The final stage of a geomagnetic storm lasts a few days as the magnetosphere returns to its original state.
Geomagnetic storms do not always require a CME. Mild storms can also be caused by something called a corotating interaction region (CIR). These intense magnetic regions form when high-speed solar winds overtake slower ones, thus creating complicated patterns of fluctuating magnetic fields. These, too, can interact with the edges of Earth’s magnetosphere and create weak to moderate geomagnetic storms.
Geomagnetic storms are measured by ground-based instruments that observe how much the horizontal component of Earth’s magnetic field varies. Based on this measurement, the storms are categorized from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme). In the most extreme cases transformers in power grids may be damaged, spacecraft operation and satellite tracking can be hindered, high frequency radio propagation and satellite navigation systems can be blocked, and auroras may appear much further south than normal.
Solar Radiation Storms
A solar radiation storm, which is also sometimes called a solar energetic particle (SEP) event, is much what it sounds like: an intense inflow of radiation from the sun. Both CME’s and solar flares can carry such radiation, made up of protons and other charged particles. The radiation is blocked by the magnetosphere and atmosphere, so cannot reach humans on Earth. Such a storm could, however, harm humans traveling from Earth to the moon or Mars, though it has little to no effect on airplane passengers or astronauts within Earth’s magnetosphere. Solar radiation storms can also disturb the regions through which high frequency radio communications travel. Therefore, during a solar radiation storm, airplanes traveling routes near the poles – which cannot use GPS, but rely exclusively on radio communications – may be re-routed.
Solar radiation storms are rated on a scale from S1 (minor) to S5 (extreme), determined by how many very energetic, fast solar particles move through a given space in the atmosphere. At their most extreme, solar radiation storms can cause complete high frequency radio blackouts, damage to electronics, memory and imaging systems on satellites, and radiation poisoning to astronauts outside of Earth’s magnetosphere.
Radio Blackouts
Radio blackouts occur when the strong, sudden burst of x-rays from a solar flare hits Earth’s atmosphere, jamming both high and low frequency radio signals. The X-rays disturb a layer of Earth’s atmosphere known as the ionosphere, through which radio waves travel. The constant changes in the ionosphere change the paths of the radio waves as they move, thus degrading the information they carry. This affects both high and low frequency radio waves alike. The loss of low frequency radio communication causes GPS measurements to be off by feet to miles, and can also affect the applications that govern satellite positioning.
Radio blackouts are rated on a scale from R1 (minor) to R5 (extreme). The strongest radio blackouts can result in no radio communication and faulty GPS for hours at a time.
Credit: NASA
A massive wall of snow let loose on a mountain Thursday in the Mount Blanc mountain range in the French Alps killing nine mountain climbers. Officials called the avalanche ‘the most deadly of recent years’ as rescue efforts continued. Read the rest of this story on Examiner.com including a slideshow of the search and rescue efforts.
In big news for the commercial weather industry, The Weather Channel recently announced it was buying competing weather website Weather Underground. Reaction to the merger of the nation’s most commercial weather company and the nation’s first commercial weather website was swift and not very supportive.
Here at ThorntonWeather.com we are big fans of the Weather Undergound (despite their co-founder’s global warming alarmism). As for The Weather Channel, we pretty much ignore them.
Find out more about this business deal and why many are unhappy about it.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its climate summary for June 2012 showing the United States experienced an unusually warm month. Most notably the U.S. has recorded its warmest first half of the year on record and the warmest 12 month period on record. Climate change? Learn more about the warm weather across the nation on Examiner.com.
After weeks of horrific wildfires, some parts of the West are enjoying an early arrival of monsoonal rains to help dampen fire danger. In the aftermath of the deadly blazes, questions are being raised as to why some of the nation’s most powerful aerial firefighting assets sat on runways while homes and property were destroyed. Read the rest of this story on Examiner.com
In looking back at this week in Denver weather history, one cannot be struck by the hail storms listed, if not for sheer number then by the damage they caused. The biggest of these storms occurred in 1990 and stands in the books as the most damaging hailstorm in United States history.
From the National Weather Service:
29-15
In 2000…the 29th marked the beginning of a near record hot streak for metro Denver. The high temperatures…as recorded at Denver International Airport…exceeded the 90 degree mark for 17 consecutive days from June 29th through July 15th. The record of 24 consecutive 90 degree or above days was set from July 13th through August 5th…2008.
29-15
In 2000…the 29th marked the beginning of a near record hot streak for metro Denver. The high temperatures…as recorded at Denver International Airport…exceeded the 90 degree mark for 17 consecutive days from June 29th through July 15th. The record of 24 consecutive 90 degree or above days was set from July 13th through August 5th…2008.
1-18
In 1874…a streak of 18 consecutive days of 90 degrees tied for second with another streak that was later set in the summer of 1901. The record of 24 consecutive days was established in the summer of 2008.
4-8
In 1989…one of the most intense heat waves on record roasted metro Denver. The temperature reached 100 degrees or more on 5 consecutive days. The city had previously never recorded more than 2 straight 100-degree days since records began in 1872. Water and electricity usage reached all time highs. The heat wave created extremely dry weather conditions…which contributed to a major forest fire in Boulder canyon on July 9th. The temperature reached 103 degrees on the 8th…and the mercury climbed to 101 degrees on both the 4th and 5th…and to 102 degrees on both the 6th and 7th. The low temperature of 68 degrees on the 8th equaled the record high minimum for the date.
6-23
In 1901…a streak of 18 consecutive days of 90 degrees tied for second with another streak set in the summer of 1874. The record of 24 consecutive days was established in the summer of 2008.
7-25
In 1934…a streak of 15 consecutive days of 90 degrees ranked 5th on the list of hot streaks. The record of 24 consecutive days was established in the summer of 2008.
8
In 1905…a thunderstorm produced 0.82 inch of rainfall and northeast winds sustained to 48 mph.
In 1977…strong winds turned over 2 light aircraft at Arapahoe County Airport…now centennial airport.
In 1987…a weak tornado was observed near Bennett.
In 1988…three separate tornadoes were sighted near Bennett. No damage was reported. One inch diameter hail was also reported.
In 1991…lightning started three house fires in Castle Rock. Damage totaled 13 thousand dollars. No injuries were reported.
In 1993…a dry thunderstorm microburst wind gust to 55 mph briefly reduced the surface visibility to 3 miles at Stapleton International Airport.
In 1997…one construction worker was killed and two others injured when a strong thunderstorm wind gust caused the scaffolding they were standing on to collapse near Parker. A dry microburst produced a wind gust to 54 mph at Denver International Airport.
In 1998…heavy thunderstorm rain forced the closure of Hampden Avenue between I-25 and Havana Street in southeast Denver. The high water made 2 or 3 lanes of the street impassable.
In 2001…severe thunderstorms produced large hail…damaging winds…and heavy rain across south metro Denver. Two people received minor injuries when a severe thunderstorm wind gust to 58 mph blew over several tents at the Cherry Creek Arts Festival. The same storm caused the roof of a hardware store in Tamarac Square to collapse. One employee received minor injuries when she was struck in the head by falling debris. The combination of intense rain and wind downed trees and power lines. Electrical power outages affected 35 thousand homes and businesses. At least 50 trees in city parks across south Denver were damaged. Up to 4.50 inches of thunderstorm rain fell across portions of southeast metro Denver. The underpass at I-25 and Parker road was inundated with 5 feet of water. Several other streets and underpasses in Aurora were also closed due to high water. Heavy rain caused extensive damage to several exhibits at the Cherry Creek Arts Festival. Flash flooding occurred when heavy thunderstorm rainfall caused toll gate creek to jump its banks. Several underpasses across south Denver had to be closed due to high water. A man received minor injuries when lightning struck a nearby tree at the Wellshire Golf Course. Hail as large as 1 1/4 inches in diameter fell in Englewood with 1 inch hail in the city of Denver…and 3/4 inch hail in Littleton. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 63 mph at Denver International Airport and to 62 mph in Englewood.
In 2005…a tornado touched down briefly near Brighton…but caused no damage.
In 2011…severe thunderstorms produced hail…up to 1 inch in diameter…and wind gusts to 60 mph across parts of Adams…Broomfield and Denver counties. At Denver International Airport…a peak wind gust to 59 mph from the west.
Continue reading July 8 to July 14 – This Week in Denver Weather History
The Waldo Canyon Fire near Colorado Springs became a raging inferno and one of the most disastrous in Colorado history. New satellite imagery released by NASA shows the massive area burned by the blaze and provides perspective as to just how close it came to the state’s second largest city.
Officials are hoping to announce 100% containment of the fire later today. The blaze has burned 18,247 acres, the 11th largest in Colorado history. More notably however the blaze claimed two lives and destroyed 346 homes making it the most destructive wildfire in the state’s history.
NASA’s Terra satellite flew over the burn area on July 4th and false color imaging provides a clear view of the burn area of the fire. One can easily see where the fire entered the Mountain Shadows neighborhood and how close it came to the Air Force Academy and more populous areas of Colorado Springs.
Related stories from Examiner.com
From NASA:
The Waldo Canyon Fire was first reported on June 23, 2012, burning in Pike National Forest, three miles (5 kilometers) west of Colorado Springs. Fueled by extremely dry conditions and strong winds, it had burned 18,247 acres (74 square kilometers) by July 5. The blaze severely damaged or destroyed 346 homes, making it the most destructive fire in Colorado history. Mountain Shadows, a neighborhood northwest of the Colorado Springs city center, experienced some of the most severe damage. According to an analysis conducted by the Denver Post, the combined value of the homes that burned to the ground in the neighborhood was at least $110 million.
The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on the Terra satellite acquired this view of the burn scar on July 4, 2012, when the fire was still burning but was 90 percent contained. Vegetation-covered land is red in the false-color image, which includes both visible and infrared light. Patches of unburned forest are bright red, in contrast with areas where flecks of light brown indicate some burning. The darkest brown areas are the most severely burned. Buildings, roads, and other developed areas appear light gray and white. The bright red patches of vegetation near Colorado Springs are golf courses, parks, or other irrigated land.