Atmospheric scientists claim the potential for a 50% increase in wildfire activity due to global warming. (AP Photo)
Sounding the warning sirens about the potential repercussions of global warming, Harvard scientists announced their belief that the changing climate will result in a 50% increase in the amount of land burned by wildfires by 2050. Should the predictions come true, the increased smoke from an increase in fires could have the effect of further accelerating warming.
Atmospheric scientists from Harvard’s School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) have generated models that show much of the western half of the United States being at much greater risk from wildfires. The study, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, is said to be the first to measure the impact of future wildfires on air quality.
SEAS Senior Research Fellow Jennifer Logan said, “Warmer temperatures can dry out underbrush, leading to a more serious conflagration once a fire is started by lightning or human activity. Because smoke and other particles from fires adversely affect air quality, an increase in wildfires could have large impacts on human health.”
A man surveys damage to a vehicle struck by a fallen tree after last week's storms. The June 20th hail and wind storm has racked up costs of $350 million in insurance claims. Image courtesy Becki Mullen.
Last week’s hail and wind storm that brought destruction to the west Denver suburbs of Wheat Ridge and Arvada caused $350 million in insured damage according to the Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association (RMIIA). The end result is a storm that now ranks as the second costliest in state history and adds to an already expensive summer storm season.
The July 20th storm has thus far resulted in 52,400 claims, 19,500 of which were for automobile damage and 32,900 were homeowner claims. RMIIA says that damage would have been much higher had the storm struck during daylight hours when more people and vehicles were on the road instead of in their homes and garages.
Massive trees were uprooted, power poles snapped, windows shattered, and automobiles dented beyond repair when the storm brought winds in excess of 60 mph and golf ball sized hail to the area. Two tornadoes also briefly touched down near Castle Rock and Englewood although they were not responsible for significant damage. 90,000 people lost power during the storm and Xcel Energy deployed more than 200 people into the field to restore electricity.
As summer vacations wind down and families prepare to send their kids back to school in August, Colorado weather also starts to settle down. The chances for severe weather decrease markedly during August and by the end of the month daytime temperatures are dropping quite a bit as well.
At the start of the month Denver usually averages around 88 degrees for a high temperature. By the end of August that drops to 82 degrees. Similarly, nighttime lows drop from 60 to 53 from the start to the end of the month. Generally clear skies can be expected between midnight and noon but the afternoon often brings showers and thunderstorms. These storms typically develop over the foothills then bring precipitation to the Denver metro area.
Despite that moisture, the chance for severe weather decreases considerably compared to the first two months of summer. Cooler air near the surface helps to create a stable atmosphere thus keeping thunderstorms from usually becoming too intense. After the middle of August, tornadoes and damaging hail are pretty rare. The slow movement of storms this time of year are more likely to produce potentially heavy rain.
A new study says he El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) accounts for the vast majority of temperature variability.
A new peer-reviewed study calls into question the so-called ‘consensus’ on the causes of global warming by saying that “Nature, not man, responsible for recent global warming.” The new study authored by three Australian scientists and published in the Journal of Geophysical Research says that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) accounts for the vast majority of temperature variability.
Authored by Chris de Freitas (University of Auckland in New Zealand), John McLean (Melbourne) and Bob Carter (James Cook University), the new study is sure to cause waves among those debating the causes of global warming. Completely contrary to the mainstream media’s portrayal of climate change, the study says, “little or none of the late 20th century global warming and cooling can be attributed to human activity.”
Lead author de Freitas said in a press release, “The surge in global temperatures since 1977 can be attributed to a 1976 climate shift in the Pacific Ocean that made warming El Niño conditions more likely than they were over the previous 30 years and cooling La Niña conditions less likely.”
Do these clouds have the potential to bring a tornado? Learn more at National Weather Service storm spotter training.
We have written before about the great opportunity the National Weather Service provides by giving storm spotter training during the start of the severe weather season. Normally these sessions are held in the spring but in response to the very active severe weather of early June, and the increased interest in severe thunderstorms, the National Weather Service in Boulder has added to additional spotter training session next week.
When: Saturday, July 11
Time: 10:00am
Where: Broomfield, CO.
Exact location: Rocky Mountain Metropolitan Airport, Terminal Building, 11755 Airport Way (formerly Jefferson County Airport)
The storm spotter program is a nationwide program with more than 280,000 trained spotters. These volunteers report weather hazards to their local National Weather Service office providing vital information when severe strikes. Data from spotters include severe wind, rain, snow measurements, thunderstorms and hail and of course tornadoes.
Storm spotters are part of the ranks of citizens who form the Nation’s first line of defense against severe weather. There can be no finer reward than to know that their efforts have given communities the precious gift of time–seconds and minutes that can help save lives.
By completing one of these training classes you can become an official storm spotter. When severe weather strikes, you can report it by calling a special toll free number or submit your report via the National Weather Service’s website.
Taking the training though doesn’t obligate you to being a storm spotter. These are great sessions for anyone wanting to learn more about the severe weather we experience in Colorado, whether you want to be an official spotter or not. All training is free. Topics include:
This funnel cloud was seen on Tuesday from the Thornton Civic Center (looking north) on June 10th. Image courtesy Lisa Wilson, the City of Thornton.
June 2009 went down in the history books as one of the more unusual June’s on record. Residents are all of course well aware of the string of severe storms but the Mile High City also were unusually cool and certainly very wet.
In terms of precipitation, a whopping 4.86 inches of rain fell at the official measuring site at Denver International Airport during the month – the second wettest June since recordkeeping began here in 1872. We missed out on breaking the record by only a tenth of an inch as the all-time wettest was back in 1882 when 4.96 inches fell in the rain bucket. Nevertheless, we easily exceed the normal rainfall total for the month which is 1.56 inches. In fact, we beat that in one day on June 23rd when 1.64 inches fell at DIA. Here in Thornton we didn’t measure near as much precipitation having recording 3.44 inches for the month. This is more in line with what areas closer to the actual metro area recorded than what was recorded at DIA. See below for details on the controversy about Denver’s climate records.
Temperature wise, we were very cool as well, never breaking the 90 degree mark during the month. Two days, the 29th and 30th, came close with 89 degrees being recorded as the high temperatures on those days. This was the first time since 2003 no 90 degree days were recorded in June. Before that, you would have to go way back to 1972 to find another June when that happened. The average temperature for June 2009 was 64.4 degrees, 3.2 degrees below the normal of 67.6. That may be cool but it was nowhere near the record low average for June which is 60.6 set in 1967. Thornton was just a touch warmer than the official stats from DIA as we recorded 90.0 degrees on the 29th. Similarly, Thornton’s average temperature was just a bit cooler at 63.2 degrees.
Then of course there were the storms. Tornadoes, funnel clouds and hail will probably be the most memorable events of the month, especially the twister that struck the Southlands Shopping Center in Aurora. In all, DIA recorded 18 days with thunderstorms – eight more than normal. 15 days had precipitation versus the normal of nine. All those storms also took a toll on what is normally a sunny month. On average Denver has 70 percent of possible sunshine during the month. This year we only recorded sunshine 51 percent of the time.
All that rain we have received in the last two months, especially in June, helps to make one other statistic a bit more tolerable. Colorado’s snow season runs from July 1 to June 30 each year and for the 2008 – 2009 snow season, we recorded a meager 38.1 inches of the white stuff. That is a whopping 29 inches below the normal of 67.1 inches. Thornton fared a bit better on the snowfall front but not by a lot having recorded 48.5 inches for the season.
There is always a ‘but’…
As always, we would like to remind everyone that all official Denver weather statistics are now taken out at Denver International Airport. As we outlined a few months ago, moving the official monitoring station 13 miles away has made quite a difference in Denver’s climate records. Evidence suggests that temperatures and precipitation as measured at DIA differ greatly from what would have been recorded at the old site at Stapleton or near downtown Denver.
The National Weather Service has finally acknowledged this and has setup a measuring station at the Denver Museum of Nature and Science (click here to view current conditions from it on the Weather Underground). However, they maintain that Denver’s official statistics will continue to be recorded at DIA and as a result, Denver’s climate records will forever have an asterisk next to them. If you compare June’s statistics from this new station to the ‘official’ ones at DIA, you will notice that much of what we discuss above, including the temperature and precipitation, would be much different were the statistics being kept by the new station closer to where people actually live.
Denver climate summary for the month of June 2009 – From the National Weather Service
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1872 TO 2009
WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR'S
VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE DATE(S)
NORMAL
................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
RECORD
HIGH 104 06/26/1994
LOW 30 06/02/1951
HIGHEST 89 06/30 104 -15 95 06/26
06/29
LOWEST 41 06/08 30 11 37 06/12
AVG. MAXIMUM 77.7 82.1 -4.4 83.9
AVG. MINIMUM 51.1 53.0 -1.9 50.9
MEAN 64.4 67.6 -3.2 67.4
DAYS MAX >= 90 0 6.3 -6.3 10
DAYS MAX <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0
DAYS MIN <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0
DAYS MIN <= 0 0 0.0 0.0 0
PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
RECORD
MAXIMUM 4.96 1882
MINIMUM T 1890
TOTALS 4.86 1.56 3.30 0.73
DAILY AVG. 0.16 0.05 0.11 0.02
DAYS >= .01 15 8.7 6.3 4
DAYS >= .10 9 MM MM 2
DAYS >= .50 4 MM MM 1
DAYS >= 1.00 1 MM MM 0
GREATEST
24 HR. TOTAL 1.64R 06/23 TO 06/23 0.70 06/04 TO 06/05
SNOWFALL (INCHES)
RECORDS
TOTAL 0.4 1919
TOTALS 0.0 T
DEGREE_DAYS
HEATING TOTAL 78 60 18 64
SINCE 7/1 5616 6128 -512 6056
COOLING TOTAL 68 136 -68 144
SINCE 1/1 94 161 -67 172
FREEZE DATES
RECORD
EARLIEST 09/08/1962
LATEST 06/02/1951
EARLIEST 10/07
LATEST 05/05
.................................................................
WIND (MPH)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 8.4
RESULTANT WIND SPEED/DIRECTION 2/147
HIGHEST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION 53/260 DATE 06/26
HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION 68/270 DATE 06/26
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT) 51
NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR 3
NUMBER OF DAYS PC 22
NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY 5
AVERAGE RH (PERCENT) 65
WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
THUNDERSTORM 18 MIXED PRECIP 1
HEAVY RAIN 7 RAIN 10
LIGHT RAIN 17 FREEZING RAIN 0
LT FREEZING RAIN 0 HAIL 3
HEAVY SNOW 0 SNOW 0
LIGHT SNOW 0 SLEET 0
FOG 14 FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE 6
HAZE 10
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
Dissenters within the EPA have called into question the global warming theory.
The Environmental Protection Agency, keen to advance President Barack Obama’s climate change initiatives, apparently suppressed a report from leading experts calling into question the science behind the theory of manmade climate change. The 98-page report, submitted to agency leaders just prior to it recommending regulation of carbon dioxide emissions, continues to call into question the ‘consensus’ many have said the scientific community has about the theory.
Alan Carlin, the report’s primary author, was told via email from superiors in the agency to not “have any direct communication” with anyone outside his group at the EPA. The well-published PhD has experience in environment and public policy dating back to 1964 but after submitting the report was told to discontinue working on climate change entirely.
In reviewing the report, it is obvious why the administration would find the report very untimely leading up to its decision on CO2 and its push for climate change legislation. The report authors saw the rush to judgment and urged caution saying their “concerns and reservations are sufficiently important to warrant a serious review of the science by EPA before any attempt to reach conclusions on the subject.”
Change is of course the one constant in Denver’s weather but come July, things actually get pretty consistent. The standard formula for a day in July is a sunning morning, clouds developing in the late morning and early afternoon. Come mid-afternoon, thunderstorms are rolling off of the foothills and into the metro area and the eastern plains. These storms do occasionally reach severe status containing hail, gusty winds and heavy downpours of rain.
In fact, the worst hail storm on record in Denver history hit western sections of the city on July 11th, 1990. Baseball and softball sized hail from this ferocious storm caused millions of dollars worth of property damage.
July is the most stormy month of the year in fact with thunderstorms occurring on average 11 days per month – or once every three days. These slow moving storms are one of the reasons July is Denver’s second rainiest month with an average of 2.16 inches of rain (second only to May). However, these storms are also often very localized and cause widely varying precipitation amounts across the metro area. It is not unusual for one area of down to be deluged while others remain entirely dry. With these severe storms, flash flooding remains a possibility.
From the National Weather Service: June 2009 has moved into the second wettest June since Denver weather records began in 1872. So far for June 2009, through June 26th, the Denver International Airport (DIA) has measured 4.86 inches of liquid (and there are still 4 more days left in June). The 4.86 inches of water is 3.52 inches above normal through the 26th. Last year, June 2008 had only measured 0.73 inch again through the same June time frame.
The wettest June on record for Denver was in June 1882 when 4.96 inches of moisture was collected in the rain bucket.
For the 2009 year so far, 10.38 inches of water has been measured at DIA which is a very impressive 2.51 inches above the normal through June 26th. Last year in June, only 3.04 inches had been recorded through the same time frame.
Note: The average Denver annual precipitation is 15.81 inches.
Something you will not see in Thornton - tornado sirens.
In yesterday’s Northglenn-Thornton Sentinel, the paper wrote about tornado sirens and warning systems in the north metro area – or rather the lack thereof. Appropriately titled “Sound of silence”, the article points out that Thornton is not alone in their lack of any sort of severe weather warning system.
Westminster, Northglenn, Federal Heights and Adams County leave citizens to fend for themselves as well. Brighton and Commerce City have siren systems to protect residents of their cities.
Emergency managers cited a number of reasons including the ever-present cost consideration and the fact that severe weather season in Colorado is relatively shortlived. It is the opinion of ThorntonWeather.com that these thoughts are all extremely shortsighted and cities are risking their citizens’ lives.
One of the more interesting sections of the article reflects that:
Mike Reddy, captain of emergency management for the Westminster Fire Department, said Mother Nature often provides enough warning for those people who are caught outside during severe weather.
“To me it’s like lightning. If you are out playing golf and there is lightning, it’s best to go inside where it’s safe,” Reddy said. “Tornado sirens are a very expensive investment that it turns out are used three weeks out of the year.
With all the media coverage and alternative approaches, there are more effective ways for people to be notified.”
Reddy added that the information he gets from dispatch about severe weather can be found on the local news channel or Internet.
Do tornadoes strike in the Denver area? 177 have been recorded in the metro area alone since 1950. They have occurred as early as April 10th and as late as October 14th. Map courtesy TornadoPaths.org.
Captain Reddy may wish to familiarize himself with the history of tornadoes in Colorado. Since 1950, tornadoes have been recorded as early as April 10th and as late as October 14th – in the Denver metro area alone. Further, through yesterday, 177 twisters have been recorded in the metro area during that same time frame so despite what some may say, they are not rare.
If a warning system saved your life or the lives of your family, wouldn’t it be worth it?
We recently wrote an article on Examiner.com detailing the current state of emergency warning system across the metro area. While we had similar results in our talks with various cities that the Sentinel did, we also found that many communities are taking advantage of lower-cost, high tech solutions that incorporate notifying residents of emergencies using email and text messaging. These types of systems have the added benefit of having multiple uses and can be used to notify residents about other significant events including Amber Alerts, wildfires, chemical spills, civil disasters and terrorist attacks.
We recognize that siren systems are expensive and limited in their reach. However, we applaud those communities that are taking steps using other methods and implore Thornton and other north metro area municipalities to do the same.
What do you think? Should north metro communities invest in emergency alert systems to protect their citizens? Leave a comment below with your thoughts!
For all the details on this study and what it means to Colorado and the Rocky Mountain Region, check out the full story on Examiner.com.
Change is of course the one constant in Denver’s weather but come July, things actually get pretty consistent. The standard formula for a day in July is a sunning morning, clouds developing in the late morning and early afternoon. Come mid-afternoon, thunderstorms are rolling off of the foothills and into the metro area and the eastern plains. These storms do occasionally reach severe status containing hail, gusty winds and heavy downpours of rain.
