Category Archives: National Weather

NC hurricane death toll now 19, with 3,800 in shelters, 143,000 without power

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — North Carolina’s Hurricane Matthew death toll has risen yet again in the ninth day of recovery to 19 people, most of them drownings that occurred when people were trapped in vehicles and swept away. The toll could rise even more, as rivers in five more counties are expected to surpass record levels between… Continue reading NC hurricane death toll now 19, with 3,800 in shelters, 143,000 without power

Deadly Hurricane Matthew downgraded, but still dangerous

WILMINGTON, N.C. — Hurricane Matthew was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone Sunday morning but still had some dangerous fight left in it, dumping more than a foot of rain on North Carolina in a deluge that flooded homes and businesses as far as 100 miles inland. What will go down as one of the most potent… Continue reading Deadly Hurricane Matthew downgraded, but still dangerous

Florida braces for Hurricane Matthew as track swings closer

MIAMI — Hurricane Matthew, a lethal storm already blamed for 11 deaths, delivered a sobering wake-up call to Florida on Wednesday: a hurricane warning up and down the Atlantic Coast that shuttered schools, triggered mandatory evacuations and put billions of dollars of property at risk. Tracking on a course that leaned closer and closer to Florida,… Continue reading Florida braces for Hurricane Matthew as track swings closer

Adoring press detail Obama’s golf, vacation while Louisiana is underwater

Three days of heavy downpours have brought historic flooding to Louisiana, where 30 parishes have declared to be a disaster, and the death toll has climbed to 13. The U.S. Coast Guard and other first responders rescued more than 20,000 people over the weekend, as the massive flooding inundated areas in and around Baton Rouge. More… Continue reading Adoring press detail Obama’s golf, vacation while Louisiana is underwater

Several dead as US south and east lashed by storms and tornadoes

The US southeast and mid-Atlantic region have been lashed by violent thunderstorms and tornadoes that killed several people. The states of Louisiana, Mississippi, North and South Carolina, Georgia and Virginia were among the worst hit. In Convent, Louisiana, a tornado ravaged a caravan park, killing two people and injuring about 30 others. The town of Waverley… Continue reading Several dead as US south and east lashed by storms and tornadoes

Major winter storm forecast to hit eastern US over weekend

Washington (dpa)- More than 50 million people are bracing for a major winter storm predicted to hit the eastern US Friday that could bring large amounts of snow and heavy wind to the region. The National Weather Service has issued a blizzard watch in effect from Friday afternoon to Saturday night in Washington due to the… Continue reading Major winter storm forecast to hit eastern US over weekend

New El Nino storm slams into Southern California

LOS ANGELES — Another El Nino-fueled storm soaked Southern California on Wednesday and brought with it flooding, mudflows and even a small tornado that struck Orange County in the early afternoon. Pea-sized hail and 45-mph winds made their way south from San Luis Obispo, forcing the region to recognize that the season of storms has commenced.… Continue reading New El Nino storm slams into Southern California

Mississippi River is About to Have a Record Flood

The Mississippi River is flooding in a big way right now, at the wrong time of year, and is forecasted to match or break 22-year-old crest records over the next few days. Meteorologists are calling it “insane.” Over the next three to four days, the Mississippi is predicted to reach a crest height of 49.7 feet… Continue reading Mississippi River is About to Have a Record Flood

Texas tornado’s winds topped 200 mph; 11 dead in storms

A tornado that blew through Garland, Texas, killing eight people Saturday night has been classified as an EF4, with winds up to 200 mph. It was one of two confirmed tornadoes that tore through North Texas in a storm that killed 11 people, including an infant. The National Weather Service confirmed that the tornado that touched… Continue reading Texas tornado’s winds topped 200 mph; 11 dead in storms

NOAA details the chances for a white Christmas for the United States

White Christmas probability map for the contiguous United States. (NOAA)
White Christmas probability map for the contiguous United States. Click for larger view. (NOAA)

With our most recent snowstorm, the Colorado Front Range is likely to enjoy a white Christmas (defined as 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day).  Other locations in the United States of course are not quite so lucky and historically, Colorado can be quite hit or miss.

Below is the latest narrative from NOAA.  To the right is a probability map – click it to view full size.

From NOAA:

Minnesota. Maine. Upstate New York. The Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Practically anywhere in Idaho. And of course, the Rockies or the Sierra Nevada Mountains. These are the places where weather history suggests you want to be if you’re looking for the best chance of a white Christmas.

The map at right shows the historic probability of there being at least 1-inch of snow on the ground in the Lower 48 states on December 25 based on the latest (1981-2010) U.S. Climate Normals from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.  Dark gray shows places where the probability is less than 10 percent, while white shows probabilities greater than 90  percent.

The 1981–2010 Climate Normals are the latest three-decade averages of several climatological measurements. This dataset contains daily and monthly Normals of temperature, precipitation, snowfall, heating and cooling degree days, frost/freeze dates, and growing degree days calculated from observations at approximately 9,800 stations operated by NOAA’s National Weather Service.

While the map shows the climatological probability that a snow depth of at least one inch will be observed on December 25, the actual conditions this year may vary widely from these probabilities because the weather patterns present will determine the snow on the ground or snowfall on Christmas day. These probabilities are useful as a guide only to show where snow on the ground is more likely.  For prediction of your actual weather on Christmas Day, check out your local forecast at Weather.gov.

You can locate Normals data for the observing station closest to you using the NCDC’sinteractive map.

If you would like to keep track of the snowfall across the United States on a daily basis, see the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center’s National Snow Analyses. For a more detailed assessment of the probability of a white Christmas as well as documentation of the methodology used to calculate the map’s underlying climatological statistics, see the scientific paper, White Christmas? An Application of NOAA’s 1981-2010 Daily Normals, by NCEI scientists and published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. You can also download a spreadsheet to see the full list of stations and their historic probabilities.

This post was adapted from an article first published by the National Climatic Data Center. It was first published on December 11, 2013, and is reviewed each year and updated as needed.