Category Archives: Natural Disasters

Climate Change to Cause Decrease in Hurricanes?

HurricaneAnother story that points to the fact that the “consensus” of researchers is less than solid.  In recent years and months we have been told that global warming would result in more frequent and more powerful hurricanes hitting the United States.  Now, this tidbit comes from a story in USA Today:

The study by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Miami Lab and the University of Miami postulated that global warming may actually decrease the number of hurricanes that strike the United States. Warming waters may increase vertical wind speed, or wind shear, cutting into a hurricane’s strength.

It seems that there really is less agreement on these types of things than Al Gore, the IPCC and others would have us believe.  You can read the full story here.

Storm Chaser Convention Coming to Denver

Storm Chaser Convention Coming to DenverFebruary 15th -17th Denver will play host to the 10th Annual National Storm Chaser Convention.  The event will be held at the Raddison Hotel at I-225 and Parker Road (3200 South Parker Road).  Most notably, the keynote speakers will be Dr. Josh Wurman and Sean Casey who appeared in the recently aired Discovery Channel special, Storm Chasers.  This is a great opportunity for weather enthusiasts to share storm stories, learn more about severe weather and storm chasing, see new weather gadgetry and hear from some of the experts in weather related fields. 

To learn more, please visit the National Storm Chaser Convention website at:  http://chaserconvention.com

Hurricane Season Ends – Questions to Answer Though

Record low hurricane seaso for 2007The 2007 hurricane season officially ended on November 30th and in the Atlantic, a total of 14 named storms were produced, including six hurricanes, two of which became major hurricanes.  The good news is that only one hurricane, one tropical storm and three tropical depressions struck the United States so we escaped relatively unscathed.  This does however make one wonder about the accuracy of hurricane forecasts.  This is the second year in a row that predictions indicated above normal activity when the opposite turned out to be true. 

It is notable that as recently as NOAA’s August hurricane update they said: 

NOAA is predicting a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Research Division, and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

 There’s that word again – CONSENSUS!  Let’s take a look at the facts:

  • – The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season was below normal and tied for 2002 as the most inactive since the El Nino depressed 1997 season in terms of storm energy.
  • – The North Atlantic was not the only ocean that experienced quiet tropical cyclone activity. The Northern Hemisphere as a whole is historically inactive. How inactive? One has to go back to 1977 to find lower levels of cyclone energy as measured by the ACE hurricane energy metric. Even more astounding, 2007 will be the 4th slowest year in the past half-century (since 1958) .
  • – Fewest Northern Hemisphere hurricane days since 1977 – the 3rd Lowest since 1958 (behind 1977 and 1973).
  • – When combined, the 2006 and 2007 Atlantic hurricane seasons were the least active since 1993 and 1994.

ThorntonWeather.com has to wonder – If we can’t accurately predict short term climatological events such as hurricanes, how can those that make up a “consensus” accurately predict and gauge man-made climate change on a global scale? 

Click here to view NOAA’s 2007 hurricane season summary.

Wrong again? Despite predictions, 2007 may rank as most inactive hurricane season in the last 30 years.

HurricaneThis marks the second year in a row forecasters predicted above normal hurricane activity only to have it be the opposite. Despite the “sky is falling” predictions about how global warming is the cause of all sorts of disasters, including an increased threat of hurricanes, we find the opposite is actually occurring. For more information see this page from the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies.