Category Archives: National Weather

National Weather

Hurricane Ike hits Cuba; Texas and Louisiana watch closely

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Satellite imagery of Hurricane Ike as it passed over Cuba. Click for larger version.
Satellite imagery of Hurricane Ike as it passed over Cuba. Click for larger version.

Hurricane Ike continues to wreak havoc on its trek west as it struck Cuba Monday morning.  The storm made landfall as a category 3 storm but has since been downgraded to a category 2 with sustained winds of 100 mph.  Four storms have claimed 321 lives in Haiti, 59 from Ike alone, but thus far no deaths in Cuba have been reported.  Ike is however expected to make a near direct hit to Havana where old, decaying historic buildings are quite vulnerable.

The Florida Keys which had been under an evacuation order now appear to have escaped Ike’s wrath.  Residents along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast however may not be so lucky.  The current predicted path has the hurricane heading northwest toward those areas with a potential landfall Saturday sometime.  Worst of all, as the storm enters and transits the Gulf of Mexico, it is expected to regain strength, returning to its category 3 status. 

Satellite image of Hurricane Ike showing its predicted path as of Monday. Click for larger version.
Satellite image of Hurricane Ike showing its predicted path as of Monday. Click for larger version.

New Orleans, which is still recovering from Hurricane Gustav, is naturally on edge.  Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency Sunday for Hurricane Ike and warned residents to be ready to evacuate again.  The concern of course is that residents will let “hurricane fatigue” set in and fail to evacuate if it is required. “We are likely going to have to become accustomed to evacuating more frequently than when we were younger,” Jindal said.

For the latest on the storm’s location, please visit the ThorntonWeather.com Hurricane Tracker.

National Weather

Hurricane Ike nears Cuba, Florida watches warily

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Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Ike as it nears Cuba.
Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Ike as it nears Cuba.

Category 4 Hurricane Ike pummeled the Turks and Caicos Islands Saturday night and Sunday morning with dangerous winds, sea surge and rain as it continues its trek west.  At 3:00am MDT the storm was 215 miles east-northeast of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba moving west-southwest at 15 mph. 

The National Hurricane Center has described this storm as “extremely dangerous” so all countries and interests in the area are keeping a vary close eye on the storm.  On its current track the storm will move over the southeastern Bahamas this morning and then onto or near eastern Cuba Sunday night.  Latest measurements had the storm with 135 mph and some strengthening is indeed possible before it strikes Cuba.  Whether it holds that strength as it passes Cuba will depend on how long it interacts with land.  Current models showing it going directly over the island and weaking a bit but it is expected to regain strength as it enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. 

South Florida and those in the Florida Keys need to watch Ike very closely.  Vistors to the Keys were already being asked to leave in anticipation of the storm hitting the islands.  Florida Governor Charlie Crist said Saturday, “We continue to watch with much concern the track of Hurricane Ike. Ike has grown rapidly into a dangerous storm that continues to move … toward Florida.”

Satellite image of Ike and it's predicted path as of Sunday morning. Click for larger image.
Satellite image of Ike and it's predicted path as of Sunday morning. Click for larger image.

It is still much too early to tell what the storm will do once it hits the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.  Models indicate a potential strike anywhere between Texas and Alabama later in the week.  Much can and most likely will change between now and then. 

For the latest on the storm’s location, please visit the ThorntonWeather.com Hurricane Tracker.

National Weather

Hanna makes landfall, Ike continues west

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Tropical Storm Hanna has made landfall in the Carolina's. Click for larger view.
Tropical Storm Hanna has made landfall in the Carolina's. Click for larger view.

What could probably be called “storm weekend” for the east coast hit in earnest early Saturday morning as Tropical Storm Hanna made landfall along the North Carolina / South Carolina border.  With sustained winds of 60 mph the center of Hanna was located about 25 miles west-northwest of Wilmington, N.C. as of 3:00am MDT.  The storm will follow the eastern seaboard today where heavy rain and strong winds are expected and tropical storm warnings have been issued from Virgina to Boston.  Travel delays, flooding and some beach erosion along the coast are an almost certainty. 

 

Everyone is really keeping a wary eye on Hurricane Ike, a storm that has the potential to cause serious damage.  As of 3:00am MDT was 400 miles west of Mayaguana in the Turks Islands and moving west-southwest at at 16 mph.  With winds of 115 mph Ike is a category three hurricane.  Some fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next 48 hours but it should remain a major hurricane.  Models indicate the storm will pass through the Florida straights with Cuba having the potential to suffer a big hit from the storm Monday and into Tuesday. 

Hurricane Ike continues its trek westward. Click for larger view.
Hurricane Ike continues its trek westward. Click for larger view.

One thing that has changed over the last 36 hours or so is Ike’s forecast path.  Initially expected to “hook” and turn north onto Florida, it now looks like the storm will pass just off the southern tip of the state and head into the Gulf of Mexico.  This of course is not good news for the storm weary states along the Gulf Coast.  Further, some convection is expected once it hits the gulf and if this occurs, the storm will strengthen, possibly to a category 4 storm.  Ike is still too far out to draw too many conclusions on where its ultimate path will lead and the models all differ on their opinions.  However, once the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico toward the middle of next week, Gulf Coast residents should be prepared to evacuate if needed.  

For the latest on the storms’ locations, please visit the ThorntonWeather.com Hurricane Tracker.

National Weather

Hanna settles down, Ike “extremely dangerous”

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Tropical Storm Hanna set to hit the Carolina's. Click for a larger image.
Tropical Storm Hanna set to hit the Carolina's. Click for a larger image.

The southeastern United States is in preparations for what could be a rough period as Tropical Storm Hanna, Hurricane Ike and Tropical Storm Josephine move through the Atlantic toward its shores. After reading the details below, be sure to check out our new Hurricane Tracker!

Tropical Storm watches or warnings were extended to areas just south of New York City on Friday as states along the Atlantic seaboard braced for Hanna.  Dry air and wind shear has helped to calm Hanna down and winds have most recently been measured at 65 mph however she could regain hurricane strength before making landfall early Saturday morning.  The storm is very large with tropical storm level winds extending 315 miles out from the center.  Significant rain accumulations can be expected from South Carolina through Virginia as can a 3 – 5 foot storm surge and dangerous waves. 
Hurricane Ike could be very dangerous and is on track to hit southern Florida. Click for a larger image.
Hurricane Ike could be very dangerous and is on track to hit southern Florida. Click for a larger image.

Perhaps of greater concern is Hurricane Ike.  In a period of 24 hours Ike exploded from a tropical storm to a category 4 hurricane.  The storm has settled down a bit and as of this morning is a category 3 storm with 125 mph winds and is moving west at 15 mph.  This weakening is expected to continue for the next couple of days before it regains strength again and should become a major hurricane.  Ike should continue west through Monday morning before starting to turn northwest however a pressure ridge close to the U.S. could change that.  If it continues on the expected path, south Florida could take a direct hit from the storm late Tuesday into early Wednesday.  This storm has the potential for widespread and serious damage and area residents should be prepared to evacuate. 

Tropical Storm Josephine is a good ways from the U.S. and is not currently expected to be a threat to the mainland.  Winds are currently at 50mph with northwest movement at 9mph.  Josephine should continue on the northwest path and stay in the Atlantic. 

For the latest updates on the positions of all of these storms, see our new Hurricane Tracker!

National Weather

Hanna, Ike, and Josephine – Mother Nature’s triple threat lines up

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Hanna, Ike and Josephine are up to bat. Click the image for a larger version.
Hanna, Ike and Josephine are up to bat. Click the image for a larger version.

Hot on the heels of Hurricane Gustav, an alphabet of storms is lining up to threaten the United States coast. 

Tropical Storm Hanna is the closest and can’t quite make up her mind what she wants to do.  The storm was a hurricane for a time but has been downgraded as its winds have dropped to 70mph.  Hanna has been battering the Bahamas with torrential rain and in Haiti it has claimed 61 lives, mostly from flooding.  After meandering around, it is now heading northwest at 12mph and will threaten the southeast coast of the U.S. Friday.  Her path is unpredictable but best guesses show the greatest threat of a direct hit from Hanna lies along the Carolina coast between Myrtle Beach, S.C., and Wilmington, N.C.  Late Friday night / early Saturday morning it is expected to make landfall as a category 2 storm.

Hurricane Ike is currently 550 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands and is moving west-northwest at 17mph.  This storm looks to hold the greatest danger of the three right now as it has grown from a tropical storm to a category 4 hurricane with 145mph winds in less than 24 hours.   It is too early to determine where a potential landfall might occur but by Sunday morning is should be near Haiti and the Dominican Republic.  Folks really need to be on the lookout as this storm could be catastrophic.   

Moving out further from the coast is Tropical Storm Josephine.  The storm is currently closer to Africa than the U.S.  – about 465 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.  Sustained winds are at 60mph and the storm is moving west-northwest at 10mph.  The current hope is that the storm takes a turn to the north as it crosses the Atlantic and doesn’t hit land.

National Weather, Natural Disasters

As Gustav winds down, Hanna and Ike spool up

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Water from the Industrial Canal floods a road in New Orleans after Hurricane Gustav made landfall Monday. Image courtesy Getty Images.
Water from the Industrial Canal floods a road in New Orleans after Hurricane Gustav made landfall Monday. Image courtesy Getty Images.

A weakend Hurricane Gustav came ashore Monday morning shutting down power and swamping much of the Gulf Coast with torrential rain.  Initially making landfall as a category 2 storm, by 3:00pm MDT the storm had lost much of its power and was downgraded to a category 1 system with winds of 80 mph. 

Much of the Louisiana and Mississippi coast lines were subject to extensive rains and high storm surge.  Winds pushed the water over many levees but the Army Corps of Engineers reported no major problems.  The largest provider of electric power in Louisiana, Entergy, said more than 700,000 homes and businesses were without power in the region. 

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reported two Navy boats, each about 350 feet long, that were being scrapped at a facility on the canal broke away from their moorings Monday. They are currently pinned against a wharf in the Industrial Canal but there is concern that should they move they could strike some of the canal walls. 

Much remains to determine the extent of damage from the storm.  The center of the storm is currently north of Lafaette, LA and steadily moving north.  As it does, it will weaken to a tropical storm tonight.

Satellite imagery of the potential tracks of Gustav, Hanna and Ike. Click for larger version.
Satellite imagery of the potential tracks of Gustav, Hanna and Ike. Click for larger version.

A stark reminder that hurricane season is far from over is the appearance of two additional storms – Hurricane Hanna and Tropical Storm Ike.  Both will bear close watching over the coming days. 

Hanna became a category one hurricane today and as of 3:00pm MDT was  just east of Mayaguana Island in the southeastern Bahamas.  Hanna is expected to meander for a couple of days before making a turn to the northwest with a possible landing anywhere between southern Florida and the Carolinas late this week.   

Ike formed out of a tropical depression today and is currently in the middle of the Atlantic, 1400 miles east of the Leeward Islands moving west at 16 mph.  A warm ocean along Ike’s path is expected to help it reach hurricane strength in the next 36 hours.  It is still very early to tell where Ike will end up but on its current course, it could strike Cuba, the Bahamas and possibly Florida early next week.

National Weather, Natural Disasters

Gustav ready to strike Monday AM

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Satellite image of Gustav as of 5:00am MDT showing the storms predicted path. Click for a larger version.
Satellite image of Gustav as of 5:00am MDT showing the storms predicted path. Click for a larger version.

Hurricane Gustav continues its march to the Louisiana coast Monday morning with landfall expected sometime between 5:00am and 7:00am MDT. At 5:00am MDT the eye of the hurricane was approximately 85 miles south of New Orleans and about 150 miles southeast of Layfayette moving at 16 mph.  Current tracks have it making landfall in the Terrebone / Lafourche areas, just to the east of New Orleans. 

**  Special Coverage:  Click here to view New Orleans radar  **

The good news, if there is any, is that Gustav has not strengthened as was originally expected.  The latest hurricane hunter aircraft report at 3:00am MDT reported sustained winds of 115 mph.  While that is still a category three storm, satellite observations show the storm is not as organized as it could be.  In fact, a station in southwest Pass Louisiana measured only 91mph as Gustav passed over it.  It is important to note that the greatest damage and danger associated with hurricanes is not the winds.  The severe rain, storm surge and the flooding associated with those present the greatest danger.  Rainfall of 6 to 12 inches can be expected and most notably storm surge of 10 to 14 feet. 

Radar image of Gustav showing current warnings and watches. Click for large version.
Radar image of Gustav showing current warnings and watches. Click for large version.

Also, one little known additional danger with hurricanes is that of the threat of tornadoes.  In fact, New Orleans and much of the surrounding area is under a Tornado Warning and some twisters have been reported by local law enforcement in Gulfport, MS.  Further, National Weather Service radar indicated the potential for tornadoes right near New Orleans in Jefferson Parish, Southern St. Charles Parish and Plaquemines Parish.

Here are a couple sites with webcams in Louisiana you may wish to check out:

Louisiana DOT

WWLTV.com

Climatology, National Weather, Natural Disasters

Gustav imagery via Google Earth

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Below you will find the latest satellite imagery (as of 10:00am MDT) with tracking for Gustav generated with Google Earth.  For those that haven’t played with it, Google Earth is a very fun – and useful – program for any number of tasks.  Using it you can download place files with a wide variety of information including weather related items.  Here are a few links to get your started:

Hurricane Gustav image from Google Earth as of 10:00am MDT Sunday.
Hurricane Gustav image from Google Earth as of 10:00am MDT Sunday. Click on image for larger view.
National Weather, Natural Disasters

Evacuations as Gulf Coast prepares for Hurricane Gustav

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Satellite image of Hurrican Gustav as of 2:00am Sunday.
Satellite image of Hurrican Gustav as of 2:00am Sunday.

Residents along the Gulf Coast, particularly in Louisiana, are being ordered to evacuate as Hurricane Gustav bears down on the state.  With Hurricane Katrina still fresh on everyone’s mind, New Orleans is under a mandatory evacuation order and states all along the coast from Texas to Mississippi prepare for a possible hit from Gustav. 

National Hurricane Center forecasters were surprised by how quickly Gustav strengthened in recent days.  Within 24 hours the storm went from a tropical storm to a category 4 hurricane.  Gustav is currently a category 3 storm with sustained winds of 125 mph (gusting to 145 mph) and is expected to intensify in the next 12 hours, possibly reaching category 5 status for a time.  As of 3:00am MT Sunday the storm was 425 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and heading northwest at 16 mph. 

By the time it makes landfall, forecasters expect it to be a category 3 storm, possibly a category 4.  The current forecast path for Gustav has it striking the central Louisiana coast with devastating results.  Storm surges of 18 to 25 feet on the eastern side of the hurricane are possible and 6 to 12 inches of rain may fall in Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Arkansas. 

John McCain and Sarah Palin await a determination on whether or not the RNC will proceed as scheduled.
John McCain and Sarah Palin await a determination on whether or not the RNC will proceed as scheduled.

In related news, the Republican National Committee was waiting to determine whether or not to proceed with its convention set to begin Monday it St. Paul, MN.  If it proceeds, it is unlikely President Bush would address  the delegates in person Monday as scheduled and would probably do so instead by video link.  John McCain in an interview with Chris Wallace of Fox News said, “It just wouldn’t be appropriate to have a festive occasion while a near-tragedy or a terrible challenge is presented in the form of a natural disaster.  So we’re monitoring it from day to day, and I’m saying a few prayers, too.”

For more information:

National Hurricane Center

2008 Republican National Convention

National Weather, Natural Disasters

Hurricane season heats up with Gustav and Hanna

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Satellite imagery of Gustav and Hanna.
Satellite imagery of Gustav and Hanna.

Today, on the three year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, preparations are underway along the Gulf Coast for the possibility that Tropical Storm Gustav will strike the region next week.  At 3:00am MDT Friday Gustav had tropical storm strength sustained winds of 65mph extending out 140 miles however it is fully expected to become a hurricane today.  It possibly could increase in intensity to a category four storm with 130mph winds by the time it makes landfall toward the beginng of next week. 

Gustav's current predicted track as of Friday morning.
Gustav's current predicted track as of Friday morning.

It goes without saying that the storm presents a serious threat to life and property with landfall expected late Monday or early Tuesday.  The greatest danger lies between Houston, TX and Mobile, AL but anywhere along the Gulf Coast remains at risk for a hit from the storm.  State, federal and local officials are preparing for the worst as they should. Disaster declarations have been issued by Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Texas Governor Rick Perry.  Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour has declared a state of emergency.  New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin is expected to issue an evacuation order for the city, but it likely would not go into effect until Saturday.

Hanna's current predicted track as of Friday morning.
Hanna's current predicted track as of Friday morning.

Tropical Storm Hanna, while less of a threat for the United States, also bears watching.  Hanna currently has winds of 50mph and should remain near those levels today but it is expected to become a hurricane in the coming days.  The storm this morning was located about 245 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Hanna’s track at this point is uncertain.  A system currently over the Great Lakes could force Hanna to turn to the northeast thus missing any major land features.