RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 1 10:00:02 UTC 2022.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 1 10:00:02 UTC 2022.
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Thu Dec 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Friday into Friday night in
the Florida Keys, and from northeast Texas to the Tennessee Valley.
No severe threat is expected across the continental United States
Friday and Friday night.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move across the north-central U.S. on
Friday. Ahead of the system, a broad low-level jet will move
eastward across the Arklatex, mid Mississippi Valley and Great
Lakes. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across the
Gulf Coast region, with a moist axis located in east Texas. Elevated
thunderstorms could occur along the northern end of this moist axis,
and near the axis of the low-level jet from northeast Texas into the
Tennessee Valley, mainly Friday night. Additional storms may also
occur in the Florida Keys in a moist airmass there. No severe threat
is expected across the continental United States Friday and Friday
night.
..Broyles.. 12/01/2022
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Thu Dec 01 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday in far eastern
North Carolina, in parts of south Texas, the lower Mississippi
Valley, Tennessee Valley and on the West Coast. No severe threat is
expected Saturday or Saturday night.
...DISCUSSION...
The upper-level pattern on Saturday will consist of a trough in the
Northeast, west-northwest flow in the central U.S. and southwest
flow in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a trough will be
located in the Atlantic coastal states, with a dome of high pressure
in the central U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward
through the western and central Gulf Coast states. The front will
also move eastward across the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast.
Thunderstorms could occur ahead of or along the front in far eastern
North Carolina, and across parts of the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys Saturday afternoon. An isolated storm could also
occur in parts of south Texas. No severe threat is expected across
the continental United States on Saturday and Saturday night.
..Broyles.. 12/01/2022
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Thu Dec 01 2022
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
Westerly flow at mid-levels is forecast in the central and eastern
states on Sunday, with a low-amplitude trough located in the Great
Lakes. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the
western and central Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible along parts of the Gulf Coast, but instability and
large-scale ascent will remain weak, suggesting that any potential
for severe will be limited.
On Monday, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-southwesterly
across much of the U.S. Low-level moisture is forecast to stream
northward into parts of the southern Plains, Arklatex and lower
Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts suggest that elevated
thunderstorms could develop Monday evening into Monday night along
the northern edge of the moist sector, in response to a developing
low-level jet. Although a severe threat could develop, any threat
would probably remain minimal due to a lack of instability.
...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
On Tuesday, the models are in reasonably good agreement, with a
mid-level jet moving into the Ohio Valley, and low-level flow
maximized across the southern Appalachians and Carolinas.
Thunderstorms could develop south of the mid-level jet from parts of
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the northern Gulf Coast states.
Although a severe threat will be possible, any threat would likely
be marginal due to a lack of instability.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the moist airmass is forecast to remain
over the Gulf Coast region as a shortwave trough moves across the
Desert Southwest. This feature is currently forecast to reach the
southern Rockies during the day on Thursday. Thunderstorms could
develop ahead of the trough in parts of the southern Plains Thursday
evening into the overnight period. Instability is forecast to remain
weak across the southern Plains Thursday and Thursday night
suggesting any severe threat would be limited.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CST Thu Dec 01 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Falling heights and increasing mid-level flow will lead to lee
cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado today. Strengthening surface
winds will develop across portions of the central Plains. However,
these winds of 15 to 20 mph will likely occur with relative humidity
in the 25 to 30 percent range. Therefore, borderline relative
humidity amid only moderately dry fuels precludes the need for an
Elevated fire weather delineation. However, these dry and breezy
conditions will help cure fuels for stronger winds on Friday.
..Bentley.. 12/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CST Thu Dec 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...
...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough which is near the Pacific Coast early this
morning will cross the central Rockies on Friday. This will lead to
lee cyclogenesis across the central/northern Plains. Strong winds
will develop across much of the central CONUS as a result of this
developing surface low. In addition, even stronger, downslope flow
is likely across eastern Colorado. In this region, sustained winds
may exceed 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Elsewhere, winds of 25 mph
are expected with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent.
Recent rainfall has been limited across this region, which is also
in exceptional drought. Therefore, fuels should be sufficiently dry
to support large-fire potential, especially after dry and breezy
conditions further cure fine fuels today.
..Bentley.. 12/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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