Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook - thorntonweather.com

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Updated: Sat, 21-May-2022 8:50am MDT

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Day 1 fire weather outlook and map Day 2 fire weather outlook and map
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front continuing to push southward across the southern Plains. Behind this front, pressure rises denote a building surface high across the central High Plains, which is forecast to migrate into the southern Plains over the next 24 hours. Consequently, weaker winds and cooler temperatures will limit fire weather concerns compared to previous days for most of the southern High Plains. Regional fire weather concerns are expected for parts of the Southwest where warm/dry conditions will persist. ...Central to southern New Mexico... Poor overnight RH recovery is noted across central to southern NM with RH values generally between 10-20%. These dry conditions will linger into the afternoon as the cold front stalls to the east due to terrain blocking. Despite persistent zonal flow aloft, the building surface high will limit any lee troughing to northern NM where a weak low is noted in morning observations. This low will likely undergo slight thermally-induced deepening through the day. As a result, the tightening regional pressure gradient over central/southern NM and parts of far eastern AZ should support sustained winds between 15-20 mph. Diurnal RH reductions to well below 15% are likely, and will support elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible, but are most likely to occur through the lower desert terrain (roughly along the I-25 corridor) where fuel loading is minimal. Additionally, poor upper-level wind support will mitigate the potential for sufficiently widespread/persistent critical conditions. ..Moore.. 05/21/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
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