Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

   Valid 091700Z - 101200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...

   Much of the previous forecast remains on track. Visible satellite
   depicts clear skies along the West Coast, where continued
   boundary-layer heating/mixing will promote RH dropping into the
   15-20% range through the afternoon, as also suggested by the latest
   guidance. Latest METAR observations also show 15-25 mph sustained
   north-northwesterly surface winds ongoing across portions of the
   Sacramento Valley. These stronger surface winds are expected to
   continue through the period given persistent northwesterly mid-level
   flow overspreading northern California, hence the maintenance of the
   Elevated/Critical fire weather highlights.

   Widespread high-end Elevated conditions are still expected across
   portions of the Lower Colorado River Valley this afternoon. Latest
   guidance consensus depicts multiple areas that will be susceptible
   to at least locally Critical overlapping surface winds/RH by
   afternoon peak heating. The relatively patchy nature of Critical
   meteorological conditions and overall lack of widespread ERCs
   exceeding climatological average preclude Critical highlights.

   Southwesterly surface winds and RH are expected to reach Elevated
   criteria across portions of the Carolinas later this afternoon. The
   primary mitigating factor for introducing Elevated highlights
   continues to be the questionable receptiveness of fuels to fire
   spread given recent rainfall. Nonetheless, at least localized
   wildfire-spread potential will exist wherever fuel beds have
   sufficiently dried.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/09/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021/

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad mid-level trough positioned over the Northern Rockies will
   elongate and become quasi-stationary, resulting in a zonal flow
   pattern over much of the central and eastern CONUS, while parts of
   the West Coast remain under northwesterly flow aloft. Mid-level flow
   throughout this regime will be somewhat enhanced (40-50 kt), with
   some strengthening of the flow expected in the West as a jet streak
   enters the region. At the surface, a cold front will surge
   southeast, from the Southern Plains into the lower Mississippi
   Valley. Farther west, relatively clear/dry conditions are expected
   to persist.

   ...Northern California...
   Diurnal heating/mixing processes should result in sustained surface
   winds of 20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph (particularly in
   terrain-favored regions). Meanwhile, RH values should fall into the
   teens amid dry/receptive fuels, resulting in critical fire-weather
   potential during the late morning into the afternoon hours. Elevated
   fire-weather conditions can be expected in proximity to the critical
   area, delineated by slightly weaker surface winds and higher RH
   values.

   ...Southwest...
   A broad region of elevated fire-weather conditions should develop as
   the marginally enhanced flow aloft mixes toward the surface during
   the afternoon. Widespread sustained winds of 10-20 mph can be
   expected, with locally higher gusts. RH value will vary across the
   region, with relatively higher RH values found across portions of
   central Arizona/New Mexico compared to adjacent areas. Fuels remain
   receptive to large-fire spread amid prolonged drought conditions.
   Locally critical fire-weather conditions are certainly possible, but
   this potential appears too localized to include any additional
   highlights at this time.

   ...Parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia...
   Breezy southerly winds should develop across the region in advance
   of the approaching cold front. Despite southerly low-level flow
   trajectories, RH values may approach critical thresholds at least
   briefly during the afternoon, but these conditions will likely be
   too localized/transient to include an elevated area at this time.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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