{"id":4093,"date":"2011-10-22T05:35:30","date_gmt":"2011-10-22T11:35:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thorntonweather.com\/blog\/?p=4093"},"modified":"2011-10-22T05:36:55","modified_gmt":"2011-10-22T11:36:55","slug":"noaa-releases-winter-outlook-la-ninas-return-could-mean-another-dry-winter-in-thornton","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thorntonweather.com\/blog\/colorado-weather\/noaa-releases-winter-outlook-la-ninas-return-could-mean-another-dry-winter-in-thornton\/","title":{"rendered":"NOAA releases winter outlook: La Ni\u00f1a’s return could mean another dry winter in Thornton"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Winter
What will this winter hold for Thornton?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Strengthening La Ni\u00f1a conditions in the Pacific could lead to another dry winter on the Colorado Front Range according to the winter 2011 \/ 2012 outlook released by NOAA.\u00a0 However, as we well know, Mother Nature is never consistent and other factors could give us some help.<\/p>\n

Last year a relatively strong La Ni\u00f1a<\/a> made ski areas in Colorado very happy while at lower elevations we were bone dry.\u00a0 The high country saw record-setting amounts of snowfall but Denver endured its second least-snowiest season on record<\/a>.<\/p>\n

While temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are indeed cooler than normal – and getting cooler – at this point they remain warmer than they were last year at this same time.\u00a0 This does help us hold out some hope that the winter won’t be as dry as last year.<\/p>\n

It should also be noted that the effects of\u00a0La Ni\u00f1a and El Ni\u00f1o in Colorado are much harder to predict and less consistent than in other places in the nation. \u00a0Our location near the middle of the country with the monstrous Rocky Mountains adjacent to us oftentimes throws a wrench in the works.<\/p>\n

From NOAA<\/a>:<\/p>\n

U.S. dealt another La Ni\u00f1a winter but \u2018wild card\u2019 could trump it<\/strong><\/em>
\nDevastating drought in Southern Plains likely to continue<\/em><\/p>\n

\"NOAA's<\/a>
NOAA's winter 2011 temperature outlook. Click the image for a larger view.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The Southern Plains should prepare for continued drier and warmer than average weather, while the Pacific Northwest is likely to be colder and wetter than average from December through February, according to the annual\u00a0Winter Outlook<\/a>\u00a0released today by NOAA.<\/p>\n

For the second winter in a row, La Ni\u00f1a will influence weather patterns across the country, but as usual, it\u2019s not the only climate factor at play. The \u2018wild card\u2019 is the lesser-known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation that could produce dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter.<\/p>\n

NOAA expects La Ni\u00f1a, which returned in August, to gradually strengthen and continue through the upcoming winter. It is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and influences weather throughout the world.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe evolving La Ni\u00f1a will shape this winter,\u201d said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center. \u201cThere is a wild card, though. The erratic Arctic Oscillation can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La Ni\u00f1a\u2019s typical impacts.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Arctic Oscillation is always present and fluctuates between positive and negative phases. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation pushes cold air into the U.S. from Canada. The Arctic Oscillation went strongly negative at times the last two winters, causing outbreaks of cold and snowy conditions in the U.S. such as the \u201cSnowmaggedon\u201d storm of 2009. \u00a0Strong Arctic Oscillation episodes typically last a few weeks and are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance.<\/p>\n

\"NOAA's<\/a>
NOAA's winter 2011 precipitation outlook. Click the image for a larger view.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

With La Ni\u00f1a in place Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and parts of surrounding states are unlikely to get enough rain to alleviate the ongoing drought. Texas, the epicenter of the drought, experienced its driest 12-month period on record from October 2010 through September 2011.<\/p>\n

Stormy periods can occur anytime during the winter season. To improve the ability to predict and track winter storms, NOAA implemented a more accurate weather forecast model on Oct.18.\u00a0 Data gathered from the model will support local weather forecast office efforts to prepare for and protect the public from weather events. This service is helping the country to become a Weather-Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.<\/p>\n

According to the U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds tilt in favor of:<\/p>\n