National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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FXUS65 KBOU 141354 AAA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
750 AM MDT SUN MAR 14 2010 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO SRN NEW MX BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  WEAK BUT DEEP QG ASCENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS WRN AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CLOSED AOA 700 MB...WITH A
RELATIVELY DEEP ESELY FLOW THIS AFTN AND TNGT.  IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WL BE IN ZONES 34..36 AND 37.
INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SATURATED AMS THIS AFTN AND TNGT
WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.  GOOD QPF GENERATED BY THE MDLS.
THE NAM12 PRODUCES THE HEAVIEST SNOW BUT SUSPECT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
MAY BE OVER INFLATING THOSE NUMBERS.  HALF THOSE TOTALS WILL STILL
GENERATE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL SO OPTED TO GO WITH A SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS FM NOON TDA THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
70.  AS THE URBAN CORRIDOR...DENVER CYCLONE IS WINDING UP THIS
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG ALREADY GETTING ENTRAINED IN
THE CIRCULATION.  AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
DEVELOPING FM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL BE
DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN.  COULD SEE THE RAIN MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR
PCPN WEST TOWARDS TO FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH TOWARDS THE PALMER RIDGE
THIS EVENING.  THE PCPN HOWEVER SHUD LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS FURTHER SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO.

.LONG TERM...MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AND
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND FOR FOG MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND MONDAY AS THE SUN BREAKS OUT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL LIKELY SEE OUR WARMEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER IN DIGGING THIS SYSTEM THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS BEING AN OPEN TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXITING TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS FOR THURSDAY BECAUSE OF THE LATER ARRIVAL.
WENT AHEAD AND RAISED TEMPERATURES POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEPT POPS
IN FOR FRIDAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING. FOR
SATURDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT ANOTHER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
STATE BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATE...TRICKY FORECAST WITH THE STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS AM. LATEST SAT PICS/OBS SHOW STRATUS HAS MADE IT
INTO GXY AND IS NOW JUST NORTHEAST OF KDEN MAYBE AROUND 20 MILES OR
SO. EXPECT SFC WINDS TO SHIFT N-NE BETWEEN 14-15Z WITH STRATUS
ROLLING IN WITH IFR CIG CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 15Z. SHOULD SEE A
LAG OF AN HOUR OR SO WITH THE STRATS INTO BJC AND APA AS WELL.  NOT
SURE HOW LOW THE VISBYS WILL COME DOWN BUT TOOK AN INITIAL STAB OF
2-3 MILES INITIALLY FOR DENVER. CURRENT COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
MADE IT INTO CYSW ITH DECENT 4MB PRESSURE RISE BEHIND THE FRONT.
CIGS SHOULD RISE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.

SOME DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN ALSO EXPECTED TOWARDS MIDDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTN.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/MIXING WITH SNOW AFTER 03Z
TNGT.  THE CHC OF SNOW WILL DECREASE AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES
34...36 AND 37 ABOVE 7500 FEET NOON MDT TODAY THRU MDNGT TONIGHT.

$$
ENTREKIN/COOPER/MEIER

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion