National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KBOU 280832
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
235 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SHORT TERM...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PUSHING A
WEAK SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...FURTHER
STABILIZING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. SKIES SHOULD BE NEARLY CLEAR
TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE...EXCEPT I DID DROP
THE MOUNTAINS LOWS TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE A FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.  THE FLOW ALOFT IS
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIODS.  THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
IS BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE
AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL TROUGHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY.  FOR MOISTURE...MODELS HAVE SOME OVER THE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
IN THE 0.55 TO 0.95 INCH RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.  THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS STAY IN 50S F OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIODS.  THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS BOTH LATE
DAY FRIDAY AND LATE DAY SATURDAY...MORE FOR FRIDAY.  THE LAPSE RATE
FIELDS SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS LATE
DAY FRIDAY.  THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP ON SATURDAY AS WELL...AND IT
COVERS MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS A TAD STRONGER.  THE QPF
FIELDS HAVE MINOR AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER SOME OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...LESS ON SATURDAY.  FOR POPS...WILL
UP FRIDAY`S TO 10%-20%S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND WESTERN
PLAINS.  FOR LATE DAY SATURDAY...10%S OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL SUFFICE.  FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE
1.5-3.5 C WARMER THAN THURSDAY`S.  SATURDAY`S WARM UP 1-2.5 C MORE.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL HAVE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THAT...ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED WELL INTO MID WEEK.  PREVIOUS
SHIFT HAS ALTERED POPS ACCORDINGLY...NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$
GIMMESTAD/RJK

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion