RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 27 06:50:02 UTC 2016.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 27 06:50:02 UTC 2016.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY AS AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SWD THROUGH THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD AS A FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM THE ERN GULF COAST STATES NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY ACROSS CONUS
SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
..BROYLES/COOK.. 09/27/2016
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
INTO EASTERN VA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY.
...CAROLINAS AND VA/GA...
A DEEP/PERSISTENT CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ONTARIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY. GENERAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24-48
HOURS HAVE BEEN FOR A SLOWER EASTWARD FRONTAL PROGRESSION EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A PROBABLE STALL OR EVEN A WEST/NORTH
RETREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER SYSTEM. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE INLAND-EXTENSIVE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS OF THE REGION...WITH UPPER
60S/NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED NEAR/EAST OF THE FRONT. A KEY
THERMODYNAMIC-RELATED UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED EARLY-DAY PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION /1500+ J PER KG MLCAPE/ IS PLAUSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR/EAST OF THE FRONT AND A RELATED WEAK FRONTAL WAVE.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING/BACKING WINDS ALOFT AND
SUSTAINED HEIGHT FALLS...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK MAY EXIST
PENDING SUFFICIENT WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE HAZARD...ALTHOUGH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL
MAY ALSO EXIST...PARTICULARLY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING GIVEN
GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF BACKING/STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL. MARGINAL PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY
APPEAR PRUDENT GIVEN SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES...BUT A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT-RISK UPGRADE COULD ULTIMATELY BE WARRANTED.
..GUYER.. 09/27/2016
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TOWARDS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHILE RIDGING TO ITS NORTH SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. TO THE EAST...STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...AND OH
VALLEY...AS AN EMBEDDED LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
ILLINOIS/INDIANA.
...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
06Z OBSERVATIONS EXHIBIT POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS TERRAIN-FAVORED LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST PAST 12Z. FOLLOWING SUNRISE...RH VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS/20S IN MANY LOCATIONS...WHILE POCKETS OF
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH CONTINUE. GIVEN VERY DRY
FUELS...THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED
CONCERNS THROUGH PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A WEAKENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND IMPROVED OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY SHOULD FURTHER
DIMINISH THE FIRE-WEATHER THREAT.
..PICCA.. 09/27/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS
STATES...WHILE AMPLIFIED CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN EMBEDDED LOW DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE EAST.
GIVEN DRY FUELS ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA...LOCALIZED
TERRAIN-DRIVEN BREEZINESS MAY SUPPORT MINOR ENHANCEMENTS OF THE
FIRE-WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY. NONETHELESS...THEY SHOULD BE TOO
SMALL/BRIEF TO HIGHLIGHT WITH AN ELEVATED AREA.
ELSEWHERE...FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
..PICCA.. 09/27/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Read more
|
RSS Feed