RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 17 19:55:01 UTC 2019.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 17 19:55:01 UTC 2019.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019
Valid 171630Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Dry and stable conditions are prevalent across the CONUS today, with
no thunderstorms expected. Deep convection continues to occur off
the Outer Banks of NC, but lightning activity has stayed 75+ nm
offshore and is likely to continue to do so.
..Hart/Karstens.. 11/17/2019
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019
Valid 172000Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Discussion...
No change was made to the previous outlook.
..Smith.. 11/17/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0948 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019/
Dry and stable conditions are prevalent across the CONUS today, with
no thunderstorms expected. Deep convection continues to occur off
the Outer Banks of NC, but lightning activity has stayed 75+ nm
offshore and is likely to continue to do so.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Pacific
Northwest Monday evening.
...Synopsis...
Offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Coast will
maintain stable conditions over much of CONUS, influenced in large
part by surface high pressure. A surface low will migrate northward
over the western Atlantic towards the Canadian Maritimes. To the
west, a shortwave trough will move east from the eastern Pacific
into the Columbia Basin. Very weak elevated instability is forecast
for parts of the Pacific Northwest, and a few flashes of lightning
cannot be ruled out within a broader region of precipitation.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None
..Smith.. 11/17/2019
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019
Valid 171700Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE COAST RANGES OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...
The forecast remains on track, with current observations and RTMA
depicting critical conditions present across parts of the southern
Coast Ranges. Latest high-resolution model guidance also suggests
that near single-digit RH and 20+ mph sustained northeasterly winds
should continue for much of the day, hence the maintenance of the
current elevated and critical delineations. Please see the previous
forecast below for more details.
..Squitieri.. 11/17/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019/
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather threats on D1/Sunday will be confined primarily to
coastal ranges of southern California. An expansive anticyclone
centered initially over Idaho will migrate southeastward through the
Great Basin while weak troughing develops along coastal California.
The resultant offshore gradient will persist throughout the forecast
period and result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions
through 12Z Monday. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns are expected
to be minimal.
...Southern California...
Latest observations indicate an ongoing, near-critical offshore
pressure gradient exists, with a few areas responding with lowered
RH values (20% or so) and gusty/breezy conditions. Over time,
models indicate that the offshore pressure gradient will strengthen
slightly as solar insolation commences. This heating will result in
very low RH values during the afternoon (5-15%) amidst continued
gusty winds exceeding 20 mph in a few areas. Given dry fuels and a
lack of meaningful precipitation over the last couple of months,
critical delineations are maintained for this outlook. This
offshore gradient (and attendant elevated to critical fire weather
conditions) will strengthen some through 12Z Monday before weakening
thereafter.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
Latest model guidance continues to depict elevated surface wind/RH
fields in place during the first half of Day 2/Monday, before
weakening by sunset, where conditions are expected to remain below
elevated thresholds. Otherwise the forecast remains on track, with
details provided below.
..Squitieri.. 11/17/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019/
...Synopsis...
The persistent offshore wind event across southern California will
finally lessen some as a Great Basin high weakens and shifts
southeastward, becoming increasingly displaced from the region of
concern. Meanwhile, a surface low over Montana will deepen as will
attendant lee troughing southward through eastern Colorado. Fire
weather concerns across the High Plains, however, will be low due to
modest reduction of RH during peak heating hours.
...Southern California...
The slackening offshore pressure gradient will result in lesser wind
speeds in most areas compared to D1/Sunday, with 10-20 mph surface
winds being more common (slightly higher in terrain-favored areas.)
Additionally, dry near-surface conditions and poor overnight
recoveries will lead to areas of single-digit RH values during peak
heating. The net result of this pattern will be elevated fire
weather conditions, and an attendant delineation is in place to
address the threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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