RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 19 13:13:02 UTC 2020.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 19 13:13:02 UTC 2020.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of southern
Georgia and northern/central Florida today into the early evening.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will undergo
further amplification today as several embedded shortwave troughs
rotate around its base. A surface low over the Gulf of Maine this
morning will continue to develop northeastward, with a trailing cold
front currently extending from the western Atlantic to eastern
NC/SC, southern GA, and northern FL. This front will move southward
over much of the FL Peninsula through the period.
Isolated thunderstorms may occur along and perhaps just ahead of
this cold front from southern GA into parts of northern/central FL.
Weak ascent aloft combined with only modest low-level convergence
along the front suggests that overall storm coverage should remain
rather sparse over land. Limited low-level moisture, characterized
by surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and
poor mid-level lapse rates present across northern/central FL will
likely temper instability. Weak/veered low-level flow along with the
meager instability should limit storm organization. Convective
potential across central FL should diminish through the evening with
the loss of daytime heating.
Across the remainder of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will
prevail as a large area of high pressure behind the cold front
dominates a broad majority of the CONUS east of the Rockies.
..Gleason.. 01/19/2020
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the global models continue to show substantial
differences with respect to the evolution of a short-wave trough
moving across the northwestern U.S. at the start of the period
(Wednesday/Day 4), and any possible interactions with
southern-stream disturbances whose timing and location are likewise
depicted differently amongst the different models.
These evolving/increasing differences aloft amongst the models
through the forecast period also manifest in fairly drastic
differences in positioning and strength of the surface features. As
such, prospects for any northward theta-e advection remain
uncertain, despite likelihood of a surface system of sorts crossing
the central and eastern U.S. during the period. As expected,
greatest convective potential would likely reside over the
southeastern quarter of the CONUS, given its proximity to higher
theta-e Gulf air. However, substantial differences in timing and
location of the surface features yield minimal confidence with
respect to offering a reasonable assessment of possible convective
activity.
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