Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Weather Forecasts - thorntonweather.com

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Updated: Sun, 02-Oct-2022 7:35am MDT

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RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 2 12:53:02 UTC 2022 No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 2 12:53:02 UTC 2022. SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Oct 2 12:53:02 UTC 2022 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 2 12:53:02 UTC 2022. SPC Oct 2, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHERN UTAH INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and wind-producing storms may occur from eastern Utah northeast into the northern High Plains this afternoon and early evening. ...UT into Northern High Plains... Moderately strong westerly flow aloft and cool mid-level temperatures will once again be in place across parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies and northern High Plains today. Several weak shortwave troughs and associated mid-level jet maxima will traverse the area, aiding the development of scattered thunderstorms. One area of interest will be over southern UT as the right-entrance region to a cyclonically curved mid-level jet affects the area. Most CAM guidance suggests scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form in this area, with forecast soundings showing sufficient vertical shear for supercell storm structures. Activity will likely be high-based, but steep lapse rates will support a risk of hail and gusty winds in a few storms. Similar to yesterday, storms will spread into the Western Slopes of CO before weakening this evening. Storms will also build northeastward across the Rockies into eastern WY and western SD by late afternoon as a combination of daytime heating and subtle large-scale forcing occur. Meager low-level moisture will limit CAPE and updraft strength. However, moderately strong winds aloft and steep lapse rates will promote gusty winds and perhaps hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Mosier.. 10/02/2022 Read more

Data courtesy National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center.

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