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Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Weather Forecasts |
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 1 14:27:01 UTC 2023No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 1 14:27:01 UTC 2023. SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Jun 1 14:27:01 UTC 2023No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 1 14:27:01 UTC 2023. SPC Jun 1, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1300Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and gusts, and perhaps a tornado, are possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain characterized on the large scale by western troughing, a ridge roughly from central MX across the Ozarks and upper Mississippi Valley to Hudson Bay, and troughing over parts of the Southeast and central/eastern Gulf. A shortwave trough was apparent over AZ/UT, with embedded 500-mb low near the Grand Canyon. This feature is forecast to weaken as it pivots northeastward across the Four Corners region through 00Z, then over western CO through the end of the period. Meanwhile, a southern- stream/subtropical-branch perturbation -- evident in moisture- channel imagery west of Baja between 125W-130W -- will move eastward across Baja during the 00-06Z time frame, and across Sonora through 12Z tomorrow. An MCV was apparent in radar composites over western KS, moving northward. The 11Z surface chart again showed a muddled, nebulous pattern over most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, outside of these features: 1. A meso-alpha-scale outflow area from prior and ongoing convection that extended from southwestern KS and western OK to the Llano Estacado. The boundary was drawn from west-central KS across westernmost parts of the main body of OK, past CDS to between LBB-HOB, then west-northwestward over southeastern to central NM. The boundary should stall on the eastern end today, while stalling then drifting northward over eastern NM and the TX South Plains on the south and west sides. 2. A dryline south of the outflow area from central NM to near GDP and west of PRS. This feature should mix eastward somewhat across southeastern NM. A diffuse dryline/lee trough was evident farther north over northeastern CO to the Black Hills vicinity and southeastern MT. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along and north of the outflow boundary through this evening, with the greatest severe potential being very near the boundary as it shifts slowly northward. Severe hail/gusts and a conditional, low-end supercellular tornado threat are apparent. The severe potential today has some nontrivial uncertainties -- especially regarding initiation timing and overall coverage. Still, the severe threat appears more spatially focused, due to weaker shear and more-stable boundary layer with extent, weaker shear and lapse rates eastward, drier/deeply mixed air westward past eastern NM, and lack of substantial large-scale/upper-air forcing area-wide. At least somewhat stabilizing low-level trajectories from ongoing/ morning areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms the southeast -- over west-central TX -- also may weaken the baroclinicity along part of the boundary, in turn making associated lift more uncertain in strength and timing with regard to diurnal convective potential, amid gradual diurnal weakening of ambient MLCINH. As the MCV moves away and the AZ/Four Corners perturbation moves abeam of this region and weakens, two primary synoptic- to subsynoptic-scale effects are expected aloft: 1. Height rises through the period, which should continue tonight amid shortwave ridging that precedes the southern/stream/Pacific trough, and 2. A related northward arching of the subtropical jet (STJ) across west TX and southern NM, increasing upper winds over the outlook area roughly south of I-40. Given these factors, surface-based convective coverage/timing are is uncertain along the boundary, and more improbable than previous days to its south, given the ridging aloft and associated lack of substantial large-scale UVV support. Any activity that does develop along the boundary, however, will be well ventilated near anvil level in the northward-arching STJ, and will access locally maximized low-level vorticity/hodograph size/SRH. Such convection also should benefit from strong veering of winds with height from surface through midlevels, helping to offset modest midlevel westerlies enough to yield 35-40 kt effective-shear magnitude. Given the potential for a few supercells, the 15% hail/wind and 5% tornado probabilities are maintained and somewhat reshaped toward the expected boundary layout today, while the marginal probabilities are tightened down on the north end, where airmass recovery is more doubtful. ...North-central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening, near the dryline/lee trough, from near I-80 northward over the NE Panhandle and eastern WY toward the Black Hills. This activity may be associated with a corridor of relatively maximized large-scale ascent aloft, ahead of a minor shortwave trough ejecting northward out of northern CO, atop diurnally minimized MLCINH. Although mid/upper-level lapse rates will be seasonally modest over this region. Surface dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s F may support pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE atop well-mixed layers. Weak low-level and deep-layer shear are forecast. Marginally severe hail and/or a few gusts near severe limits are possible. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 06/01/2023Read more SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookSPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookDay 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0924 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor expansion needed across parts of far southwest NM where ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability for sustained elevated conditions. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... Modest mid-level winds will be maintained as the Four Corners trough moves northeast and weakens today. A weak surface trough is also expected to develop in eastern New Mexico. These features will combine to promote 15-20 mph winds across parts of central New Mexico. By the afternoon, RH of 10-15% will be possible. Some precipitation occurred on Wednesday afternoon in some portions of central/southeastern New Mexico. While dry and windy conditions are possible farther north and east, mitigated fuel dryness should reduce the overall fire potential. Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions are expected in portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more |
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Data courtesy National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. | |
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