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Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Weather Forecasts |
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249WW 249 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 200000Z - 200600ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 249 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 800 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Central Indiana Central and Northern Kentucky Southwest Ohio * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 800 PM until 200 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including some supercells can be expected near a warm front across Kentucky, while additional storms move into Indiana/southwest Ohio this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Bloomington IN to 55 miles southeast of Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...WW 244...WW 245...WW 246...WW 247...WW 248... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...GuyerRead more SPC Tornado Watch 248WW 248 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 192140Z - 200400ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Far Eastern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-organized complex of storms, which includes some embedded supercells, will continue eastward into southern Illinois/western Kentucky and eventually southwest Indiana this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Carbondale IL to 25 miles southeast of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...WW 244...WW 245...WW 246...WW 247... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...GuyerRead more SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247WW 247 SEVERE TSTM KY VA 192040Z - 200200ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 247 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Southwest Virginia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered intense thunderstorms capable of hail are affecting eastern Kentucky. This activity will likely persist for another few hours and track across the watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Lexington KY to 75 miles east of Jackson KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...WW 244...WW 245...WW 246... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...HartRead more SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246WW 246 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 192020Z - 200300ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East Central Minnesota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will affect the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. Large hail appears to be the main threat with the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Minneapolis MN to 60 miles east of Eau Claire WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...WW 244...WW 245... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...HartRead more SPC Tornado Watch 245WW 245 TORNADO IA MN WI 192010Z - 200300ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 245 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Central Iowa Southern Minnesota Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon along a surface warm front. A few supercells are expected, capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Fairmont MN to 60 miles east of Rochester MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...WW 244... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...HartRead more SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249 Status ReportsWW 0249 Status UpdatesSTATUS FOR WATCH 0249 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YETRead more SPC Tornado Watch 248 Status ReportsWW 0248 Status UpdatesSTATUS REPORT ON WW 248 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE FAM TO 40 SSW DEC. ..BUNTING..05/20/22 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 248 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-025-027-033-047-049-051-055-059-065-069-077-079-081-087- 101-121-145-151-157-159-165-181-185-189-191-193-199-200140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CLAY CLINTON CRAWFORD EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE MARION PERRY POPE RANDOLPH RICHLAND SALINE UNION WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC051-125-129-147-163-173-200140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON PIKE POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICKRead more SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247 Status ReportsWW 0247 Status UpdatesSTATUS REPORT ON WW 247 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW HTS TO 10 NNW JKL TO 25 SW LEX. WW 247 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 200200Z. ..SMITH..05/20/22 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 247 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-063-065-069-165-173-175-197-205-237-200200- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH ELLIOTT ESTILL FLEMING MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN POWELL ROWAN WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246 Status ReportsWW 0246 Status UpdatesSTATUS REPORT ON WW 246 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW RST TO 30 SSW EAU TO 5 SE AUW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836 ..MOORE..05/20/22 ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 246 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-053-057-063-081-103-123-200240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS JACKSON JUNEAU LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more SPC Tornado Watch 245 Status ReportsWW 0245 Status UpdatesSTATUS REPORT ON WW 245 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE MCW TO 35 WNW RST TO 20 WSW EAU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836 ..MOORE..05/20/22 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 245 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC131-200240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MITCHELL MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-200240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED WABASHA WINONA WIC091-121-200240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARERead more SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244 Status ReportsWW 0244 Status UpdatesSTATUS REPORT ON WW 244 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BUNTING..05/19/22 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC013-019-025-027-037-043-055-061-071-077-079-083-093-101-105- 117-123-143-153-175-192340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DUBOIS FLOYD GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE ORANGE PERRY SCOTT SULLIVAN WASHINGTON KYC001-003-005-009-017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-061-067- 073-079-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-111-113-123-137-141-151-155- 163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227- 229-239-192340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BOURBON BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLERRead more SPC Tornado Watch 243 Status ReportsWW 0243 Status UpdatesSTATUS REPORT ON WW 243 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ARG TO 25 S STL. ..BUNTING..05/19/22 ATTN...WFO...SGF...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 243 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC017-023-031-123-157-181-186-187-201-207-223-200040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU MADISON PERRY RIPLEY STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more SPC MD 836MD 0836 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246... FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0836 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246... Valid 200038Z - 200245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic severe hail will remain possible through the late evening hours across parts of southeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin. DISCUSSION...Training convection along/north of the surface warm front in the vicinity of a surface low over south-central MN has shown signs of weakening over the past hour. This is likely due to destructive storm interference as semi-discrete storms merge into a poorly organized cluster. Despite this trend, the 00 UTC sounding from MPX reveals 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture supporting around 1200 J/kg MUCAPE in the vicinity of the cluster. This observation is consistent with recent mesoanalysis estimates, which shows a gradually diminishing MUCAPE field to the east into central WI. Favorable effective bulk shear near 40 knots (sampled by the 00 UTC MPX and DVN soundings) remains supportive of organized convection. Despite recent trends, this environment remains supportive of organized convection, so an intensification of one or more cells within the cluster remains possible through the late evening and will maintain the severe hail threat. This activity may persist into central WI late tonight as the warm frontal zone lifts north, but the overall severe threat beyond 03 UTC remains uncertain. ..Moore.. 05/20/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 43619264 44079267 45069128 45019037 44488984 43798983 43519029 43439117 43509175 43619264Read more SPC MD 835MD 0835 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0835 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Areas affected...Far eastern Nebraska to central Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 200004Z - 200200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening along a cold front. Storms will likely pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds from far eastern Nebraska to central Iowa. Trends will be monitored, and a watch is possible if a sufficiently widespread threat becomes apparent. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations across the Plains and upper Mississippi River valley reveal a gradually deepening surface low over south-central MN with a cold front pushing east/southeast into eastern SD/eastern NE. Latest GOES visible imagery reveals a deepening cumulus field along a surface trough ahead of the front and across parts of central IA, where an attempt at convective initiation was noted over the past hour. Latest RAP analyses indicate the warm sector is only weakly capped with around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong flow aloft ahead of an approaching shortwave trough is supporting 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear largely orthogonal to the cold frontal boundary, which will may support broken linear segments and potentially a few discrete cells. In the near term, an isolated cell or two is possible across central IA where weak low-level confluence is promoting a couple of attempts at convective initiation, but thunderstorm chances should increase between 01-03 UTC as the cold front moves into IA. Convective trends will be monitored, and a watch is possible across the region when/if a sufficiently widespread severe threat becomes apparent. ..Moore/Guyer.. 05/20/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 41299656 42439608 43069550 43139432 43109294 42789264 42149258 41449298 40939368 40619472 40609547 40609599 40779642 41299656Read more SPC May 20, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 0100Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK AND OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado remain possible tonight across northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Scattered damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes remain possible across the lower Ohio Valley. ...Lower Ohio Valley... Long-lived MCS that evolved over northwestern OK Wednesday night has progressed across southern MO into southern IL early this evening. Strong convection, with damaging winds at times, has been noted leading band of convection. Strongest surge is lifting northeast toward HUF. Additionally, numerous discrete updrafts/clusters persist across southern IN into northern KY within modest warm advection regime. This activity should persist ahead of the short wave associated with the MCS. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit north to account for recent trends. ...Upper Midwest... Plume of steep low-level lapse rates have developed within veered boundary-layer flow across NE/northwestern IA into southwestern MN. Cold front is surging southeast into this region and abundant MUCAPE exists for renewed convection later this evening, especially as the front advances into this more buoyant air mass. Only minimal changes were made to reflect current boundary position. ..Darrow.. 05/20/2022Read more |
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Data courtesy National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. | |
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