RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 5 11:30:01 UTC 2012.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 5 11:30:01 UTC 2012.
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AMPLIFIED/SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS/CANADA. DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A PORTION OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CA COAST WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WHILE A VIRTUALLY NIL TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
MOST AREAS...ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF
COASTAL CA.
FOR CA COASTAL AREAS...A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED FRONT...LIMITED MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION INLAND
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE RISK.
..GUYER.. 02/05/2012
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Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH
THE MID/LATE PART OF THE WEEK...WITH A LOW LATITUDE TROUGH GRADUALLY
CROSSING NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH DAYS 5-6. BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED
PREVALENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ASSOCIATED
COLD/CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES...APPRECIABLE SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
APPEARS UNLIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING UPPER TROUGHS IN THE NORTHEAST WILL QUICKLY EJECT
OFFSHORE...WHILE A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER MO DRIFTS TO NEAR THE
IL/IND/KY/TN BORDER. A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS INTO NRN FL OVERNIGHT. FARTHER WEST...A STAGNANT UPPER LOW
NEAR THE UT/WY BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
HOWEVER...THE LINGERING RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS PROGRESS TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
COAST...RESULTING IN A RELAXATION OF OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SRN CA.
...SRN CA...
LOCALIZED AREAS OF POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY ARE
ONGOING...THROUGH RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT
OFFSETTING FIRE POTENTIAL AT THE MOMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL OCCUR...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO 20S. ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED CANYONS AND
PASSES...GIVEN THE MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
..HURLBUT.. 02/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PREDOMINANT BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE WEST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
TRANSITION AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS BEGIN TO PHASE OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST...QUICKLY DEAMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THE
STAGNANT LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN WILL EJECT EWD...BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES SWWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ALTHOUGH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY LINGER OVER SRN CA...THE RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE MOISTURE OVER TIME...WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL
BE LIGHTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN THE REDUCTION OF
CHANNELING THROUGH HIGHER TERRAIN.
..HURLBUT.. 02/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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