RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 249 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 200000Z - 200600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
800 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern and Central Indiana
Central and Northern Kentucky
Southwest Ohio
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 800 PM
until 200 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe storms including some supercells can be expected
near a warm front across Kentucky, while additional storms move into
Indiana/southwest Ohio this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of
Bloomington IN to 55 miles southeast of Cincinnati OH. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...WW 244...WW
245...WW 246...WW 247...WW 248...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Guyer
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WW 248 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 192140Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 248
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Illinois
Southwest Indiana
Western Kentucky
Far Eastern Missouri
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized complex of storms, which includes some
embedded supercells, will continue eastward into southern
Illinois/western Kentucky and eventually southwest Indiana this
evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Carbondale IL to 25
miles southeast of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...WW 244...WW
245...WW 246...WW 247...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 28030.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 247 SEVERE TSTM KY VA 192040Z - 200200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Kentucky
Southwest Virginia
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered intense thunderstorms capable of hail are
affecting eastern Kentucky. This activity will likely persist for
another few hours and track across the watch area.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south
southwest of Lexington KY to 75 miles east of Jackson KY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...WW 244...WW
245...WW 246...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27020.
...Hart
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WW 246 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 192020Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
East Central Minnesota
Western Wisconsin
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will affect the watch area through
the afternoon and early evening. Large hail appears to be the main
threat with the strongest cells.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of
Minneapolis MN to 60 miles east of Eau Claire WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...WW 244...WW 245...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Hart
Read more
WW 245 TORNADO IA MN WI 192010Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
310 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
North Central Iowa
Southern Minnesota
Southwest Wisconsin
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon
along a surface warm front. A few supercells are expected, capable
of very large hail and a few tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Fairmont
MN to 60 miles east of Rochester MN. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...WW 244...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Hart
Read more
WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0249 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0248 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 248
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE FAM
TO 40 SSW DEC.
..BUNTING..05/20/22
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 248
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-025-027-033-047-049-051-055-059-065-069-077-079-081-087-
101-121-145-151-157-159-165-181-185-189-191-193-199-200140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CLAY CLINTON
CRAWFORD EDWARDS EFFINGHAM
FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN
HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LAWRENCE MARION PERRY
POPE RANDOLPH RICHLAND
SALINE UNION WABASH
WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
INC051-125-129-147-163-173-200140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GIBSON PIKE POSEY
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
Read more
WW 0247 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 247
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW HTS
TO 10 NNW JKL TO 25 SW LEX.
WW 247 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 200200Z.
..SMITH..05/20/22
ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 247
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC011-063-065-069-165-173-175-197-205-237-200200-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATH ELLIOTT ESTILL
FLEMING MENIFEE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN POWELL ROWAN
WOLFE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0246 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 246
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW RST
TO 30 SSW EAU TO 5 SE AUW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
..MOORE..05/20/22
ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 246
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC001-053-057-063-081-103-123-200240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS JACKSON JUNEAU
LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND
VERNON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0245 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 245
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE MCW
TO 35 WNW RST TO 20 WSW EAU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
..MOORE..05/20/22
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 245
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC131-200240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MITCHELL
MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-200240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DODGE FILLMORE HOUSTON
MOWER OLMSTED WABASHA
WINONA
WIC091-121-200240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BUNTING..05/19/22
ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...PAH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC013-019-025-027-037-043-055-061-071-077-079-083-093-101-105-
117-123-143-153-175-192340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD
DAVIESS DUBOIS FLOYD
GREENE HARRISON JACKSON
JEFFERSON JENNINGS KNOX
LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE
ORANGE PERRY SCOTT
SULLIVAN WASHINGTON
KYC001-003-005-009-017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-061-067-
073-079-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-111-113-123-137-141-151-155-
163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-
229-239-192340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON
BARREN BOURBON BOYLE
BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER
Read more
WW 0243 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 243
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ARG TO
25 S STL.
..BUNTING..05/19/22
ATTN...WFO...SGF...PAH...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 243
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC017-023-031-123-157-181-186-187-201-207-223-200040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
MADISON PERRY RIPLEY
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT
STODDARD WAYNE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 0836 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246... FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246...
Valid 200038Z - 200245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246
continues.
SUMMARY...Sporadic severe hail will remain possible through the late
evening hours across parts of southeast Minnesota into western
Wisconsin.
DISCUSSION...Training convection along/north of the surface warm
front in the vicinity of a surface low over south-central MN has
shown signs of weakening over the past hour. This is likely due to
destructive storm interference as semi-discrete storms merge into a
poorly organized cluster. Despite this trend, the 00 UTC sounding
from MPX reveals 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and modest
boundary-layer moisture supporting around 1200 J/kg MUCAPE in the
vicinity of the cluster. This observation is consistent with recent
mesoanalysis estimates, which shows a gradually diminishing MUCAPE
field to the east into central WI. Favorable effective bulk shear
near 40 knots (sampled by the 00 UTC MPX and DVN soundings) remains
supportive of organized convection. Despite recent trends, this
environment remains supportive of organized convection, so an
intensification of one or more cells within the cluster remains
possible through the late evening and will maintain the severe hail
threat. This activity may persist into central WI late tonight as
the warm frontal zone lifts north, but the overall severe threat
beyond 03 UTC remains uncertain.
..Moore.. 05/20/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 43619264 44079267 45069128 45019037 44488984 43798983
43519029 43439117 43509175 43619264
Read more
MD 0835 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0835
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Areas affected...Far eastern Nebraska to central Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 200004Z - 200200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop this evening along a cold front. Storms will likely pose a
risk for large hail and damaging winds from far eastern Nebraska to
central Iowa. Trends will be monitored, and a watch is possible if a
sufficiently widespread threat becomes apparent.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations across the Plains and upper
Mississippi River valley reveal a gradually deepening surface low
over south-central MN with a cold front pushing east/southeast into
eastern SD/eastern NE. Latest GOES visible imagery reveals a
deepening cumulus field along a surface trough ahead of the front
and across parts of central IA, where an attempt at convective
initiation was noted over the past hour. Latest RAP analyses
indicate the warm sector is only weakly capped with around 500-1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Strong flow aloft ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough is supporting 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear largely
orthogonal to the cold frontal boundary, which will may support
broken linear segments and potentially a few discrete cells.
In the near term, an isolated cell or two is possible across central
IA where weak low-level confluence is promoting a couple of attempts
at convective initiation, but thunderstorm chances should increase
between 01-03 UTC as the cold front moves into IA. Convective trends
will be monitored, and a watch is possible across the region when/if
a sufficiently widespread severe threat becomes apparent.
..Moore/Guyer.. 05/20/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 41299656 42439608 43069550 43139432 43109294 42789264
42149258 41449298 40939368 40619472 40609547 40609599
40779642 41299656
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK AND OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado
remain possible tonight across northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin. Scattered damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes remain possible across the lower Ohio Valley.
...Lower Ohio Valley...
Long-lived MCS that evolved over northwestern OK Wednesday night has
progressed across southern MO into southern IL early this evening.
Strong convection, with damaging winds at times, has been noted
leading band of convection. Strongest surge is lifting northeast
toward HUF. Additionally, numerous discrete updrafts/clusters
persist across southern IN into northern KY within modest warm
advection regime. This activity should persist ahead of the short
wave associated with the MCS. Have adjusted severe probabilities a
bit north to account for recent trends.
...Upper Midwest...
Plume of steep low-level lapse rates have developed within veered
boundary-layer flow across NE/northwestern IA into southwestern MN.
Cold front is surging southeast into this region and abundant MUCAPE
exists for renewed convection later this evening, especially as the
front advances into this more buoyant air mass. Only minimal changes
were made to reflect current boundary position.
..Darrow.. 05/20/2022
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