Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Weather Forecasts - thorntonweather.com

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Thornton, Colorado, USA

Updated: Fri, 07-Mar-2014 7:35pm MST

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RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 8 01:04:01 UTC 2014 No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 8 01:04:01 UTC 2014. SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Mar 8 01:04:01 UTC 2014 No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 8 01:04:01 UTC 2014. SPC Mar 8, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST FRI MAR 07 2014 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN ROCKIES TO WRN-NRN OK AND FAR SRN KS... A POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES...EMERGING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. AT 00Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NRN PART OF LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH NRN IL...NRN MO AND INTO NWRN OK...THEN TO JUST SOUTH OF CDS AND WWD INTO ERN NM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE SWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE WRN EXTENT EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM SRN MO THROUGH ERN OK TO NORTH CENTRAL TX...AND THEN EXTENDING WSWWD THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST TX. WSR-88D VADS SHOWED LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER OK AND TX BEGINNING TO VEER TO SLY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SRN ROCKIES TROUGH. WHILE THE W TX 00Z SOUNDINGS ARE NOT YET SUPPORTIVE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT...A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES REGION PER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AT 00Z ABQ SOUNDING AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT ELP. FARTHER EAST...AN INCREASE IN ASCENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NRN TX TO SRN KS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 50-55 KT WSWLY 500 MB JET MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX/SRN OK. THIS COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS LATER TONIGHT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ...NC OUTER BANKS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OFF THE NC COAST PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST. AS SUCH...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE NC OUTER BANKS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL WAA AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER FAR ERN NC PER 00Z MHX SOUNDING AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...A STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. ..PETERS.. 03/08/2014 Read more

Data courtesy National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center.

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