RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 408 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 092245Z - 100600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 408
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHWEST KANSAS
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 445 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 150
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MULLEN NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF HILL CITY KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 407...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS...INCLUDING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS WITH SVR
HAIL...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING NE OF FRONT STALLED NW-SE ACROSS
CNTRL NEB. OTHER STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ALSO MAY FORM LATER
THIS EVE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY IN CNTRL NEB IN RESPONSE TO
CONTINUED LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION AND TO ASCENT WITH CNTRL PLNS UPR
IMPULSE. THESE STORMS ALSO MAY POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG
WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW-LVL BUOYANCY AND
SIZABLE/CURVED HODOGRAPHS. FINALLY...OTHER STORMS/CLUSTERS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FORMING THROUGH THE EVE IN WEAKLY CONFLUENT/SLIGHTLY
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NE CO/WRN NEB.
EXPECTED NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF MDT...SLY LLJ...AND CONTINUED SE
MOVEMENT OF UPR IMPULSE...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
AN MCS OR TWO...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND/SVR
HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31025.
...CORFIDI
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WW 0408 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 408
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LIC TO
5 NNE ITR TO 25 WNW MCK TO 30 WNW BBW TO 30 SE ANW TO 35 WNW OFK.
..JEWELL..07/10/14
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...GID...LBF...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 408
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-100440-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON
KSC039-063-065-071-089-109-123-137-141-147-153-163-179-181-183-
193-199-203-100440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM
GREELEY JEWELL LOGAN
MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE
PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS
SHERIDAN SHERMAN SMITH
THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA
NEC001-019-035-041-047-061-063-065-071-073-077-079-083-093-099-
115-129-137-145-163-175-181-183-100440-
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WW 0407 Status Updates
000-CWZ000-092340-
STATUS REPORT ON WW 407
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DCA
TO 35 E CXY TO 5 WSW MSV TO 20 S GFL.
..JEWELL..07/09/14
ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...LWX...PHI...BGM...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-003-005-009-092340-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD
NEW HAVEN
DEC001-003-092340-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE
MDC003-005-009-015-017-029-033-035-037-092340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CECIL CHARLES KENT
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 10 03:36:02 UTC 2014.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2014
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
...CNTRL GREAT PLAINS...
ONGOING SCATTERED SUPERCELLS HAVE PRODUCED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WINDS OVER NEB WITHIN A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL WAA.
WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT EVIDENT IN
AREA VWP DATA...ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PLAINS EML PLUME WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATIVE UPDRAFTS. AS
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 35-45 KT THIS EVENING...CENTERED OVER W
KS...CONSOLIDATION OF UPDRAFTS SHOULD YIELD INCREASED CLUSTERING AND
PROBABLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SEWD-MOVING MCS. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY
SHOULD REMAIN MODEST WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
GENERALLY S OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN OK/AR ATTM...A RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TOPPING THE W CONUS RIDGE SHOULD AID IN
MAINTAINING/INCREASE CONVECTION EWD FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER S-CNTRL
MT. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
...SRN NEW ENGLAND TO MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE PROGRESSING ALONG/OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. OVERALL SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING AMIDST MODEST BUOYANCY. SEE MCD 1332 FOR FURTHER
SHORT-TERM FORECAST INFORMATION.
..GRAMS.. 07/10/2014
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