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Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Weather Forecasts |
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 6 12:44:01 UTC 2023No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 6 12:44:01 UTC 2023. SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Feb 6 12:44:01 UTC 2023No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 6 12:44:01 UTC 2023. SPC Feb 6, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1300Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears minimal. ...Synopsis... A progressive, somewhat high-amplitude wave train will characterize the mid/upper-level pattern through the period. A strong shortwave trough -- initially over the inland Mid-Atlantic region -- will move offshore around midday to early afternoon, developing a closed 500-mb cyclone well offshore thereafter. Upstream, a trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the northern High Plains across WY, UT, southern NV, and southern CA. This feature will split through the period, with the northern segment reaching the Upper Great Lakes by 12Z tomorrow. Meanwhile, the southern portion will move slower and to the east-southeast, forming a closed cyclone over parts of AZ and NM by 12Z. Isolated, brief lightning cannot be ruled out this afternoon over northern/eastern AZ to northwestern NM in a zone of increasing large-scale ascent preceding the mid/upper trough. However, low/middle-level theta-e appears too weak to support a general/10% thunderstorm area. Lack of low-level moisture, instability and/or lift will preclude thunderstorms elsewhere in the CONUS. ..Edwards.. 02/06/2023Read more SPC Feb 6, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm OutlookSPC 0830Z Day 3 OutlookDay 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. ...ArkLaTex to Tennessee Valley including LA/AR/MS/AL/TN... Severe-weather potential is expected to increase into Wednesday across the region. This will be as a shortwave trough/polar jet spread northeastward from the south-central Plains/Ozarks toward the Midwest and interface with an increasingly moist air mass across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley. However, numerical guidance timing/spatial variability and the likelihood of early day convection, as well as modest overall destabilization, cast uncertainty regarding the potential and placement of somewhat higher severe probabilities (such as a Slight Risk) at this time. Recent NAM runs continue to be much more east-northeastward progressive as compared to recent ECMWF/GFS guidance. Early day cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms will likely be semi-persistent factors ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, although most global guidance has trended slightly more unstable with respect to the warm/moist sector over the prior 24-36 hr of guidance runs. Regardless, currently thinking is the warm sector will at least modestly destabilize Wednesday across portions of Louisiana into Arkansas/Mississippi. At least an isolated severe-weather potential should increase accordingly, including damaging wind/tornado risks. This severe potential should reach portions of Alabama/Tennessee Wednesday night. An upgrade to a categorical Slight Risk could be warranted for portions of the region into the Day 2 time frame as forecast details become clearer. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest... Steady northeastward ejection of the shortwave trough and related deepening phase of the northeastward-advancing surface cyclone from the Ozarks to the Midwest could influence a strongly forced low-topped convective line across the region Wednesday night, even in the presence of minimal instability with northward extent. Given a pronounced strengthening of deep-layer winds, along with steepening lapse rates atop residual but eroding boundary layer stability, at least low wind-related severe probabilities may be warranted in future outlooks, even with thermodynamic uncertainties/potential limitations. ..Guyer.. 02/06/2023Read more SPC Feb 6, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather OutlookDay 4-8 OutlookDay 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thursday... While instability details are uncertain, some severe potential could persist into the coastal Southeast on Thursday, possibly including portions of southern Alabama, northern Florida into Georgia. This would be near/ahead of the cold front and residual upstream convection in the presence of strong vertical shear. The scenario does appear to warrant 15% severe probabilities at this juncture. ...Day 5/Friday... As a secondary/prominent upper trough approaches the region, some severe storm potential may exist from parts of Florida in the Carolinas, and possibly other parts of the Mid-Atlantic as a modestly moist air mass develops northward ahead of a cold front. ...Days 6-7 Saturday/Sunday... Little if any severe-weather potential is currently expected. ...Day 8/Monday... Related to a low-latitude upper-level trough, very early indications are that the severe potential could begin to increase by around Monday across the southern tier of the CONUS, initially across parts of Texas.Read more |
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Data courtesy National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. | |
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