Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook - thorntonweather.com

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Updated: Mon, 22-Apr-2019 4:00am MDT

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Day 1 fire weather outlook and map Day 2 fire weather outlook and map
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level low located over the Desert Southwest will shift southeastward slowly, reaching portions of southern Arizona/northern Mexico by the end of the forecast period. Consequently, most of the modestly enhanced flow along the base of the trough/low will reside outside of the CONUS, except for portions of the southern High Plains where mid-level flow of 30-35 kt will enter by mid-afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will sag south through the central High Plains and stall across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and northeastern New Mexico. Meanwhile, a remnant dryline will extend south into portions of south-central New Mexico. ...Southern New Mexico... West of the dryline, afternoon temperatures will approach the upper 70s to lower 80s F with resulting RH values falling into the lower teens. Vertical mixing will allow winds near to the surface to be sustained near 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph, during the afternoon. Thus, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected where fuels remain marginally receptive. The previous forecast has been refined slightly to account for higher RH values that are now forecast into portions of far southwestern New Mexico, and slight adjustments were made elsewhere based on the last high-resolution HRRR/RAP model guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level low located over the Desert Southwest/northern Mexico will shift eastward, entering portions of the Big Bend and West Texas by the end of the forecast period. Farther north, a predominantly zonal flow pattern will exist across the northern tier of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will settle into the Great Basin and much of the central U.S., with a stationary front lining up from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Light offshore flow can be expected Tuesday morning across portions of southern California. In general though, fire-weather concerns remain low, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 04/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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