Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN...

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level shortwave trough will amplify across the Pacific
   Northwest, with surface low pressure deepening across the Northern
   Rockies during the afternoon hours. Upper-level ridging will flatten
   across the Great Basin and the Four Corners region, with surface low
   pressure developing across the Four Corners as well. A relatively
   strong west-to-east pressure gradient will become established across
   the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies, promoting breezy,
   dry conditions across portions of the northwest CONUS, where
   conditions will be favorable for wildfire spread. 

   ...Pacific Northwest...
   With the onset of afternoon heating and mixing of the boundary
   layer, downslope westerly flow will prevail along the lee of the
   northern Cascades. 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are
   expected to occur during the afternoon hours, coincident with RH
   dropping to 20-25%. With drying fuels becoming prevalent across the
   Columbia Basin, conditions will become relatively favorable for
   wildfire spread, where a critical delineation has been maintained.

   ...Southeast New Mexico into southwest Arizona...
   While stronger flow aloft will be confined farther to the north,
   very deep tropospheric mixing will encourage breezy
   west-southwesterly surface flow, with winds potentially exceeding 15
   mph during the afternoon hours, amidst RH dropping to 10%. Fuels in
   this area are critical, and given the lack of recent rainfall across
   the region, combined with the aforementioned surface wind/RH
   conditions, an elevated area was delineated. 

   ...Montana...
   Widespread elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions
   will be present across much of western into central Montana during
   the afternoon hours, as deep boundary layer mixing (up to 700 mb)
   will encourage downward momentum transport of the stronger flow
   aloft, promoting 20+ mph sustained westerly winds and 20-30% RH.
   While modest drying of the finer fuels has been ongoing across the
   area, recent rainfall from scattered showers/thunderstorms, along
   with additional rainfall possible during the period, introduces
   uncertainty regarding the receptiveness of the aforementioned finer
   fuels, precluding delineations at this time.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/19/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will continue to deepen across the western CONUS,
   with a surface low pressure trough deepening across the eastern
   Great Basin into the Central Rockies and a cold front surging
   southward across the Great Basin on Thursday. Windy but cool
   conditions will prevail behind the cold front, with breezy, dry,
   warm flow prevailing within proximity of the surface low-pressure
   trough ahead of the cold front during the afternoon hours.  

   ...Northern California...
   As the aforementioned upper-level trough deepens across the
   northwest CONUS, a belt of stronger northwesterly flow will coincide
   the northern Sacramento Valley, where a very deep, dry boundary
   layer will reside. This deep mixing will encourage stronger flow
   aloft to mix down to the surface, where 15-20 mph sustained
   northerly winds are expected, along with RH potentially dropping
   below 15%. Given the relative lack of rainfall over the past few
   weeks, finer fuels across lower elevations have begun to adequately
   dry for supporting wildfire-spread potential, and an elevated
   delineation has been added in this area to account for this
   scenario. At least locally critical conditions are also possible,
   and forecast trends will continue to be monitored for the potential
   of a critical area addition in later outlooks.

   ...Great Basin into the Four Corners and Central Rockies areas...
   With a deepening trough and subsequent stronger flow aloft
   overspreading a well-mixed boundary layer over a large area, 15-25
   mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20% RH will become
   common across much of the area on Thursday afternoon. Still, fuels
   appear to remain somewhat unreceptive to fire spread given the
   recent accumulating rainfall, precluding delineations at this time.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/19/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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