Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook - thorntonweather.com

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Updated: Tue, 22-Oct-2019 9:55am MDT

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Day 1 fire weather outlook and map Day 2 fire weather outlook and map
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...Synopsis... Large-scale northwesterly upper-level flow will prevail across the western CONUS throughout the day, with surface high pressure remaining in place across the Great Basin area. A pressure gradient will thus persist across southern California and contribute to offshore flow over the Transverse Ranges. Dry and breezy conditions will ensue during the afternoon, where modest wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Southern California... During the morning hours, 15+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds will prevail, with RH dropping into the 15-25% range by late morning. Winds will weaken slightly during the afternoon, though the dry conditions and channeled flow in terrain-favoring locations along the Transverse Ranges suggest that at least localized elevated conditions will continue into the evening hours. A restrengthening of offshore flow may occur overnight. ..Squitieri.. 10/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid-level flow will become more northerly across the western CONUS as a positively tilted upper-level trough amplifies across the region on Day 2/Wednesday. High pressure will also intensify across the Great Basin, with a larger scale pressure gradient also strengthening across much of California. The net result will be dry northerly surface flow developing across northern California, and offshore flow across southern California, promoting at least elevated fire weather conditions in both locales. ...Southern California... Widespread 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph northeasterly flow are expected for at least the first half of Day 2/Wednesday across the Transverse Ranges, with locally higher wind gusts possible in terrain-favoring areas. By later in the evening, winds will begin to increase, with widespread critical conditions nearly being achieved by the end of the period. If high-resolution model guidance shows more run-to-run consistency in depicting critical conditions before 12Z Thursday, a critical area may need to be added in future outlooks. ...Northern California... Downslope northerly flow across portions of the Sacramento Valley will contribute to sustained 15-20 mph winds in addition to 15-20% RH by late morning, and lasting into the evening hours. Locally critical conditions may transpire by afternoon peak heating, but the brevity of such conditions precludes the addition of a critical area at this time. ..Squitieri.. 10/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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