Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1047 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021

   Valid 201700Z - 211200Z

   The Elevated delineation was removed from California. Surface RH is
   expected to continue increasing across southern California,
   coinciding less with the stronger offshore winds (also expected to
   weaken with time), as supported by the latest high-resolution
   guidance. Nonetheless, locally Elevated conditions may still occur
   in terrain-favoring locations. Otherwise, Elevated conditions are
   still expected across portions of the central High Plains, with more
   localized Elevated surface winds/RH overlapping farther
   east-southeast into the central Plains. Lastly, a dry airmass should
   still prevail by afternoon peak heating across portions of the
   Florida Peninsula, Georgia and the Carolinas. Please see the
   previous forecast below for additional details.

   ..Squitieri.. 01/20/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021/

   ...Synopsis...
   A gradually weakening upper-level low south of the southern
   California coast will continue to support strong winds over southern
   CA. Across the central U.S., a deepening surface low is forecast to
   translate along the U.S./Canadian border and will usher in dry,
   windy conditions to portions of the west-central Plains. Low
   humidity across the Southeast will also pose some fire weather
   concerns for a region that has seen little rainfall over the past
   two weeks. 

   ...Southern California...
   The strong synoptic low that brought strong winds to the region
   yesterday will largely remain in place through today, though a
   gradual weakening trend is expected. Winds will likely be strongest
   during the morning hours (with sustained winds near 25-35 mph likely
   with gusts up to 50 mph) before tapering off slowly during the
   afternoon. Overnight relative humidity trends have shown gradual
   moistening across the region, and this trend is expected to continue
   for today. The lower coastal hills will continue to experience
   downslope warming and drying effects that should help mitigate the
   moistening trend to some degree. Ensemble and deterministic guidance
   show reasonable agreement in RH values in the 20-30% range for the
   coastal areas (though locally drier pockets are possible). Despite
   scattered light precipitation yesterday, fuels remain very dry, and
   coupled with the strong winds and marginal RH values, should support
   elevated fire weather concerns.

   ...The west-central Plains...
   A surface trough associated with the Canadian low is forecast to
   sweep east/southeast across the Plains today. Breezy conditions are
   expected with sustained winds between 15-20 mph and gusts near 25
   mph possible. Dry air in the wake of the trough should see RH values
   fall into the 20-30% range over the region. Higher resolution
   guidance suggests RH reductions as low as 15% are possible across
   the NE/CO/WY region. While spread in the humidity forecast is noted,
   drier solutions may be more appropriate given the potential for
   downslope effects from the higher terrain to the west. Additionally,
   recent fuel reports from local offices suggest that fine fuels are
   receptive and supportive of wildfire spread. Given these
   considerations, elevated fire weather conditions appear possible and
   a corresponding highlight has been introduced to the NE/CO/WY
   region.

   ...Southern Georgia and northern Florida...
   Recent rainfall analyses show that the broader Southeast region has
   received 10-50% of their normal rainfall over the past two weeks.
   This has allowed fine fuels to dry out and ERC values to climb into
   the 90-95th percentile range. Dry weather has not improved these
   conditions with relative humidity values in the 30-40% range
   observed yesterday. Similar values are expected today, and will
   introduce at least a low-end fire weather concern. In general, winds
   will be weak today underneath a surface high, but some locations may
   see winds increase to around 10-15 mph by late afternoon when
   boundary-layer mixing is maximized. Wind gusts up to 25 mph are
   possible and may allow for pockets of transient elevated conditions.
   However, given the localized/transient nature of this threat, no
   highlights are introduced.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Related severe weather links:

• Advisories & Warnings
• Hazardous Weather Outlook
• Local Storm Reports
• SPC Forecast
• SPC Discussion
• SPC Watches
• SPC Fire Weather Outlook
• SPC Storm Reports
• Subscribe to our email alert / report system