Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2020

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
   FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level ridge will persist across the central and eastern CONUS,
   with a near-stationary trough aloft meandering along the California
   coastline. Subsequent surface lee troughing will continue, primarily
   during the afternoon hours across the High Plains, with dry and
   breezy conditions supporting wildfire spread expected across
   portions of the southern into central High Plains.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Downslope flow and afternoon boundary-layer mixing will be most
   vigorous across portions of the southern High Plains, from roughly
   east-central Colorado down to southwest New Mexico, eastward into
   far western Kansas into the far west Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. An
   elevated area remains for locales most likely to experience 10-20%
   RH overlapping 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface flow, and at
   least modestly receptive fuels for several hours during the
   afternoon. In addition, 20+ mph wind speeds and 10-15% RH may occur
   across northeast New Mexico into extreme western parts of the
   Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, where a critical delineation remains in
   place. Locally critical conditions may also be occasionally observed
   across parts of central into southern New Mexico.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Farther north into far southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle,
   15-20% RH is expected, atop fuels that have cured enough to support
   some potential for wildfire growth. Nonetheless, several model
   members continue to depict wind speeds barely reaching 15 mph,
   precluding an elevated area at this time. An elevated delineation
   may be needed in future outlooks should model consensus lean towards
   southwesterly sustained surface winds exceeding 15 mph.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2020

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper ridge is expected to remain in place across the central and
   southern CONUS, with a mid-level shortwave trough gradually
   progressing across the southwest U.S Day 2/Tuesday. Farther north, a
   mid-level shortwave trough and associated belt of 50+ knot 500 mb
   winds will graze the central High Plains/central Plains Tuesday
   afternoon, overlapping a mixing boundary layer, and dry/breezy
   westerly flow induced by surface lee-troughing. As such, multiple
   areas along the High Plains may experience conditions modestly
   supporting wildfire spread.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Similar to Day 1, westerly downslope flow will prevail across
   eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, with 10-20% RH likely by
   afternoon peak heating. Wind speeds however, are expected to be a
   bit weaker compared to previous days. Sustained westerly surface
   winds are expected to barely exceed 15 mph for any extended period
   of time during the afternoon, based on the latest model guidance.
   Nonetheless, curing fuels and critical RH with 15 mph wind speeds
   necessitate an elevated delineation.

   ...Central High Plains...
   In contrast to the southern High Plains, a stronger surface wind
   field will be in place across the central High Plains as a mass
   response to the passage of an upper trough overhead. Sustained 20+
   mph westerly flow is expected for several hours during the afternoon
   across southeast Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle. However,
   despite curing fuels, surface RH is expected to be higher relative
   to areas farther south across the High Plains. Most model guidance
   currently depicts RH barely dipping below 25%. Such RH values for
   this region, combined with the aforementioned fuels/wind fields
   suggest an elevated delineation is warranted, hence the addition.
   Critical area delineations may be considered in future outlooks
   should RH trend drier in future model guidance. 

   ...Parts of the East Coast...
   With presence of some surface lee troughing, and deeper low-level
   moisture lagging to the west, dry and occasionally breezy conditions
   may occur across parts of the East Coast, predominantly the Carolina
   Piedmont on Tuesday afternoon. RH may drop into the 35-40% range by
   afternoon peak heating, in tandem with westerly surface winds that
   may sustain above 15 mph for multiple hours during the afternoon.
   Accumulating precipitation has been minimal over the last week in
   this area, with a lack of accumulating rainfall noted in model
   forecasts. As of now, conditions mainly appear to support local fire
   starts. However, if drier RH trends are noted in future guidance, an
   elevated area may need to be considered in future outlooks.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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