Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1022 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

   Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
   WEST TEXAS...

   The elevated/critical areas where slightly reduced in size,
   especially along northern/eastern edges, given the current position
   of the surface front, fog/cloud cover, and the forecast trajectory
   of the surface low as it moves from eastern Colorado into northwest
   Texas today. Critical conditions are still expected across a wide
   area of the southern High Plains this afternoon before an
   approaching cold front slides southward across the region this
   evening/tonight. Please see the discussion below for more details.

   ..Nauslar.. 02/16/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/

   ...Synopsis...
   A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within a belt
   of 80+ knot 500 mb flow, will eject into the Southern Plains during
   the afternoon, promoting the rapid development of a relatively
   strong surface low across the southern High Plains. Strong, dry
   westerly surface flow will prevail, promoting atmospheric conditions
   favorable for wildfire spread.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   As the aforementioned intensifying low surges southeast across the
   southern High Plains during the afternoon hours, 25+ mph sustained
   westerly winds will be common across much of eastern New Mexico into
   west Texas, with many areas experiencing 15% or less surface RH and
   temperatures above 60F ahead of a rapidly approaching cold front. A
   critical delineation remains in place for areas where the strongest
   winds and critically low RH best overlap with finer fuels that
   support fire spread. Localized extremely critical conditions may be
   observed in far southwest Texas, associated with 30+ mph downslope
   flow and RH as low as 5-10% along the Davis Mountains for a few
   hours during the afternoon, but brevity of such conditions precludes
   the issuance of an extremely critical delineation. The eastern
   delineations of the elevated/critical areas are defined by the
   dryline, expected to mix no farther east than the Texas Panhandle
   during diurnal heating. 

   Late in the afternoon, rapidly lowering temperatures associated with
   a passing cold front will begin to temper the fire threat, beginning
   in far southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle around 4 PM
   CDT, and continuing southeastward into west Texas through the
   evening.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Large scale upper-level troughing will persist across the southern
   CONUS throughout Day 2/Sunday. At the surface, a low will develop
   across the southern High Plains, promoting dry, breezy conditions
   across portions of the southwest CONUS, potentially supporting at
   least marginal conditions for fire spread where fine fuels are dry.

   ...Southern New Mexico into southwest Texas...
   As a weak surface low becomes established in eastern New Mexico/west
   Texas during the afternoon, 15-25 mph sustained westerly winds will
   ensue. Widespread 20% RH is also expected across the elevated
   delineation, though some model guidance hints at potentially lower
   values, mainly across portions of far southwest Texas. In addition,
   temperatures will be marginal during the afternoon, with highs
   barely reaching 50F across southern New Mexico. Still, the
   near-critical RH and very strong surface winds suggest at least an
   elevated fire weather threat will be present. Locally critical
   conditions are possible across southwest Texas, where 60F temps
   coincide with 20+ mph winds and RH possibly dropping to 15% for at
   least a few hours during the afternoon. Currently, the threat
   appears too brief to warrant a critical delineation at this time.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/16/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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