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Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook |
Weather Advisories and Warnings National Wildland Fire Activity Map |
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NM / LARGE PART OF SW TO
N-NCNTRL TX / PARTS OF SRN OK...
...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NM EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
RAPIDLY TRANSLATE NEWD TO CNTRL MO BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN NEWD FROM NW TX TO NERN OK/SERN KS
BY EARLY EVENING. AN ATTENDANT WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD
OVER ERN OK/TX AND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH/THERMAL GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER W-CNTRL OK EXTENDING SWWD INTO NW TX BY 00Z.
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD AREA OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN NM / LARGE PART OF SW TO
N-NCNTRL TX / PARTS OF SRN OK...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
BELT OF STRONG 1-2 KM AGL WINDS /30-40 KTS/ ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION ACCORDING TO DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE. OF PARTICULAR
NOTE...LATEST GFS/4 KM NMM INDICATE THE JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW MIN RH
/ STRONG WINDS NOSING INTO S-CNTRL OK AS TEMPS WARM WITHIN MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT BEHIND EWD MOVING LOW LEVEL WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT /E OF I-35
BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON/. THUS...HAVE SHIFTED CRITICAL AREA NEWD TO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY/ARBUCKLES MTNS REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL AID IN
DEEPER MIXING BEHIND THE WINDSHIFT AND AHEAD OF SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH. SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 20-35 MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/ SEEM
PROBABLE BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING COMMENCES AIDING IN RH RECOVERY.
BEFORE THIS OCCURS...MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN W
TX TO THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX ARE
ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..SMITH.. 03/10/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY / EDWARDS PLATEAU...
...SYNOPSIS...
NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE E-SEWD FROM THE
DESERT SW TO THE MID-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING E PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NW BY FRIDAY. BELT OF
STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN TIER STATES...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TX
BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY / EDWARDS PLATEAU...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG W-SWLY FLOW /70 KTS
AT H5/ OVERSPREADING THE REGION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BY NOON THURSDAY. A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
BE IN PLACE LEADING TO RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. MODEL VARIABILITY
EXISTS IN THE DEPICTION/STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION STRONGER THAN THE NAM/ETAKF. THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE PAST FEW RUNS OF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 03Z/10 SREF OUTPUT
LENDS CREDENCE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS AND ANTECEDENT DRY
AIRMASS...CRITICALLY LOW RH AND STRONG WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
..SMITH.. 03/10/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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