Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
   
   VALID 191700Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE/TX S
   PLAINS/WRN N TX...
   
   ...ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE/TX S PLAINS/WRN N TX...
   16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NW OK WITH A
   DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO WRN N TX THEN SWWD TO THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU. OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH WLY WINDS
   FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED AMIDST A VERY DRY AND
   WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT W OF THE DRYLINE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
   SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND MIN RH VALUES IN THE
   SINGLE DIGITS. EXPANDED THE CRITICAL RISK SLIGHTLY NWD IN ERN NM AND
   THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND EWD INTO WRN N TX AS WIND SPEEDS AROUND OR
   GREATER THAN 20 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON. 
   
   ...SW NM INTO SW TX...
   CRITICAL RH VALUES /GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ ARE EXPECTED
   AREAS S AND SW OF THE CRITICAL AREA BUT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH ARE
   NOT EXPECTED FOR MORE THAN 3 HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS PRECLUDE A
   CRITICAL DELINEATION BUT ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
   STILL ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...CA CENTRAL VALLEYS...
   NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/19/2013
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0223 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ...MUCH OF ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS...
   THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL NOT MOVE
   MUCH TODAY. STRONG WLY FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
   CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
   OVER CNTRL KS WILL DEVELOP S/SE INTO OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
   DRYLINE EXTENDING S/SW FROM THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT STRONG HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY
   LAYER MIXING BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN VERY DRY CONDITIONS
   ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA. WLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
   GUSTS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND RH VALUES
   FROM 6-12 PERCENT. DRY FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT WILL COMBINE WITH
   THESE CONDITIONS TO CREATE A CRITICAL FIRE RISK. 
   
   ...SW NM INTO SW TX...
   TO THE SOUTH OF THE CRITICAL...CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
   MARGINAL DUE TO LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS FROM 10-15 MPH. CRITICALLY LOW
   RH VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED...FROM 10-15 PERCENT.
   
   ...CA CENTRAL VALLEYS...
   BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CENTRAL CA VALLEYS TODAY
   AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHARPENS DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO
   THE GREAT BASIN. SPEEDS FROM 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
   ADDITIONALLY...WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL
   LEAD TO RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE. THIS COULD
   LEAD TO AN ELEVATED THREAT WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SRN NM INTO W TX...
   
   NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/19/2013
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ...FAR SRN NM INTO W TX...
   A NARROW AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED
   TO THAT ON DAY 1/SUNDAY. STRONG HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
   BEHIND A DRYLINE WILL LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES FROM 6-12 PERCENT. W/SW
   WINDS AHEAD OF A SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ENHANCED BY STRONG DEEP
   LAYER WESTERLIES THROUGH THE BASE OF SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS
   TROUGH...WILL REACH 15-25 MPH.
   
   ...CNTRL NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...
   BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TO THE
   NORTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA. HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL
   BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM THIS AREA AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
   ADDITIONALLY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
   FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RH VALUES MAY BE MORE MARGINAL
   AS WELL FROM 10-20 PERCENT. 
   
   ...SW CA MOUNTAINS...
   A BRIEF OFFSHORE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE WITH
   HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SINK S/SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WIND
   SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
   FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES BEGINNING EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE
   WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES
   FROM 12-18 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...LEADING TO AN ELEVATED THREAT
   WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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