Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

   Valid 191700Z - 201200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

   Much of the current forecast remains on track. Though modest RH
   recovery has been observed early this morning, -5 mb pressure
   gradients have recently been observed within the LAX vicinity within
   the past few hours, with latest model guidance suggesting 15-25 mph
   sustained surface winds persisting in terrain-favored areas through
   the afternoon/early evening hours. Simultaneously, temperatures are
   expected to reach the mid 70s across the elevated/critical
   delineated areas, with RH becoming near-critical to critically low
   with the heating of the afternoon. For these reasons, the critical
   and elevated delineations have remained unchanged.

   ..Squitieri.. 10/19/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   The greatest fire weather concerns today will reside across portions
   of southern California, where a strong (1028 mb) high pressure area
   over the Great Basin will combine with weak surface troughing
   along/just west of the California coast to produce offshore winds. 
   Elsewhere, relatively cool and wet conditions along with unfavorable
   fuel states will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum.

   ...Southern California...
   The aforementioned offshore flow pattern will result in areas of
   15-30 mph northeasterly surface winds amidst a dry surface airmass. 
   This surface flow will be slightly stronger in terrain-favored
   areas, and will combine with areas of dry fuels and critically low
   RH values to foster rapid fire spread.  Latest model guidance
   suggests that an areas of slightly stronger surface flow will
   persist through the mid-morning areas across portions of Ventura and
   Los Angeles Counties through mid/late morning, lending some
   confidence that critical surface wind thresholds will be met in
   these areas.  A critical area has been introduced as a result. 
   Farther south, spotty critical fire weather conditions will occur,
   although on a less-widespread basis, with elevated fire weather
   conditions being more common.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   Much of the forecast remains on track for Day 2/Saturday, with
   sustained surface winds expected to weaken near or below elevated
   thresholds across much of the elevated area during the afternoon
   hours, particularly outside of terrain favoring areas per latest
   model guidance. The one exception may be the Los Angeles/Ventura
   County area, where elevated surface wind/RH conditions should
   otherwise persist through sunset.

   ..Squitieri.. 10/19/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   Great Basin high pressure will gradually shift to the east as a
   stronger anticyclone takes shape over the central U.S.  This will
   result in a weaker, yet still persistent, offshore surface pressure
   gradient across coastal areas of southern California through the
   day.  Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are
   expected in these areas.  The remainder of the CONUS will be free
   from larger-scale fire weather due to relatively cool/moist
   conditions and non-cured fuels.

   ...Portions of southern California...
   The aforementioned weakened surface pressure gradient will allow for
   surface winds to slacken some during the day, though 10-20 mph
   northeasterly winds will still remain common (gustier in favored
   terrain).  This will result in elevated to locally/briefly critical
   fire weather conditions given dry fuels and a continued critically
   dry low-level airmass in place.  These conditions should persist
   through the evening hours.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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