Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook - thorntonweather.com

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Updated: Wed, 15-Aug-2018 10:30am MDT

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Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook	Weather Advisories and Warnings National Wildland Fire Activity Map

Day 1 fire weather outlook and map Day 2 fire weather outlook and map
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON... Added a small scattered DryT area along and east of the southern Oregon Cascades where storms are most likely. SREF and HREF guidance along with several CAMs all suggest storms are likely across this region. PWAT values are a bit on the wet side, but storm motions are forecast to be 25 to 35 mph which will help ignition efficiency. In addition, when dry, as they are now, fuels in this area are especially susceptible to fire starts, even when storms are wetter. ..Bentley.. 08/15/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS, a mid-level speed max will progress across Wyoming into the central/northern Plains today. Deep boundary-layer mixing is expected across portions of southwestern/south-central Wyoming during the afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow will mix to the surface and promote 15-20 mph winds. With afternoon RH values falling to 5-15%, elevated fire weather conditions are expected. Across the Great Basin, northern Sierra Nevada, and into the Harney Basin of Oregon, mid-level moisture will be present and foster isolated afternoon thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. PWAT values will range from 0.5-0.8 in. across the region. Faster storm motions are expected in Oregon and northern Nevada with slower speeds in Utah. A mix of wet and dry storms appears likely, but with very dry fuels in place, lightning ignition efficiency will be high. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will shift to the east as a shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest on D2/Thursday. At the surface, strong heating across the Columbia Basin will lead to a thermally induced surface pressure trough which, with terrain enhancement, will lead to surface winds of 15-20 mph within parts of the Columbia River Gorge. Afternoon RH values will fall to 10-20%. With critically dry fuels in place, elevated fire weather conditions are expected. Isolated dry thunderstorms will again be possible from the Harney Basin into much of the Great Basin. PWAT values will be higher than Wednesday, with values 0.6-1.0 inches. However, with the approach of the mid-level wave, storm motions will also see an increase leading to a mix of both wet and dry storms. Due to the very dry fuels across the region, lightning ignitions will likely be efficient. ..Wendt.. 08/15/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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