Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

   Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW 
   MEXICO...SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO...

   Forecast looks on track and no changes were made. There may be
   periods of critical fire weather conditions across portions of New
   Mexico just outside of the critical delineation, southwest New
   Mexico, and eastern Utah/western Colorado. However, uncertainty
   regarding the duration of critical winds across these areas
   precludes expanding and/or introducing critical areas. Additionally,
   there is too much uncertainty regarding the initiation and coverage
   of dry thunderstorms over dry fuels to include an isolated dry
   thunderstorm area across portions of Colorado.

   ..Nauslar.. 06/22/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough will progress across the Four Corners region
   today. Stout mid-level winds will mix down to the surface during
   peak afternoon heating. Strong surface winds will coincide with low
   RH values across portions of the southwestern CONUS and the Great
   Basin.

   ...Portions of northern New Mexico and south-central Colorado...
   The strongest mid-level winds will exist in this region. Deeply
   mixed boundary layers will yield surface winds of 20-25 mph, with
   stronger gusts, amidst RH values of 5-15%. Areas of northwest
   Colorado may see dry thunderstorms, however concerns over coverage
   do not warrant a 10% dry thunderstorm designation at this time.

   Elsewhere, elevated fire weather conditions will exist across parts
   of the southwestern CONUS, Great Basin, and southwest Colorado. RH
   values will also range from 5-15%, however winds will generally be
   lighter or be intermittently critical. Portions of southwest New
   Mexico may experience briefly critical conditions, but concerns over
   the duration of strong surface winds precluded critical designation.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
   BASIN INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA...

   Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across
   portions of the southern Great Basin and into northern Arizona. The
   critical was expanded slightly to the south as model forecast
   surface winds have trended stronger across central/northern Arizona.
   Locally critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop
   across portions of central/eastern Utah and far southeast
   Arizona/southwest New Mexico, but uncertainty regarding the
   duration/extent of these conditions precludes from expanding the
   critical area.

   An elevated area was added to portions of the Central Traverse
   Ranges and adjacent northern/eastern valleys in California.
   Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 10-20% are expected
   to develop on Saturday across this area while locally critical fire
   weather conditions are possible.

   ..Nauslar.. 06/22/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin on D2/Saturday.
   Strong mid-level flow will mix down to the surface as well-mixed
   boundary layers deepen over the course of the day. At the surface, a
   trough will develop in response the upper-level wave and enhance the
   surface winds further. A similar scenario will unfold in northern
   California, where strong northerly/northwesterly flow on the back
   side of the trough -- coupled with a surface trough -- will yield
   strong surface winds. Strong surface winds will overlap with
   critically low RH across the highlighted areas.

   ...Portions of the Great Basin into northwest Arizona...
   Strong mid-level flow will mix down to the surface in the afternoon
   with already enhanced surface due to a surface trough in the Great
   Basin. Surface winds will range from 20-25 mph with RH values
   dipping to 5-15%. Small southward extension of the critical area was
   made into Arizona on account of recent stronger wind guidance.

   Elsewhere, a surrounding area of elevated fire weather conditions
   will exist across much of New Mexico, western Colorado, and portions
   of Utah and Nevada. These locations will experience RH values 5-15%,
   however winds will not reach critical levels with their displacement
   from the stronger mid-level flow.

   ...Northern California...
   Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will exist in
   parts of the Sacramento Valley. Strong mid-level winds accompanied
   by a strong surface pressure gradient will yield winds in the 15-20
   mph range. RH values will fall to 5-15% with the downsloping
   northerly/northwesterly flow. Critical winds will likely be too
   localized to warrant critical designation.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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