Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0937 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

   Valid 111700Z - 121200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes. See previous discussion below for additional details.

   ..Bentley.. 12/11/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   An active synoptic pattern will continue across the Lower 48 today,
   with stout mid-level disturbances centered over the northern/central
   Great Plains, Northeast, southern California, and the Pacific
   Northwest.  The Great Plains wave will induce cyclogenesis in
   northeastern New Mexico and vicinity, while Great Basin high
   pressure will assist in development of an offshore pressure gradient
   across southern California.  Although highlights have been withheld
   for this outlook, areas of locally elevated fire weather conditions
   will develop at times across the central Plains and along coastal
   ranges of southern California.

   ...Northeastern New Mexico northeastward into western Kansas...
   10-15 mph westerly downslope flow will develop in vicinity of the
   deepening surface low and west of a front/wind shift from the
   Panhandles into central Kansas.  Minimum RH values will fall to
   around 20-35% west of the wind shift, and fuels are not expected to
   support large fires on a widespread basis.  Nevertheless, where
   finer fuels are cured, locally elevated fire weather will develop
   for a couple of hours during peak heating.

   ...Southern California...
   Gusty offshore flow will develop throughout the day in response to
   the aforementioned pressure gradient.  Minimum RH values should only
   fall to around 20-30% however, and fuels are not cured on a
   widespread basis owing to recent rainfall across the area.  Locally
   elevated fire weather conditions can be expected where fine fuels
   are dry.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1018 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   After fuels collaboration with the local offices, it was decided
   that fuel conditions and weather conditions warrant an elevated fire
   weather area in eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas
   panhandle Wednesday afternoon. Winds are expected to be around 20
   mph with RH values falling to around 20%.

   ..Bentley.. 12/11/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   A vigorous mid-level system will amplify southeastward from the
   Pacific Northwest toward the southern High Plains, while closing off
   late in the forecast period.  This system will result in another
   episode of strong cyclogenesis in northeastern New Mexico and
   vicinity, with resultant strengthening of downslope flow and locally
   elevated fire weather across eastern New Mexico.  Meanwhile, gusty
   winds in southern California will take on more of an onshore
   component, with limited low-level drying resulting in only a locally
   elevated fire weather threat.

   ...Eastern New Mexico...
   Areas of 25-35 mph westerly surface flow will develop during peak
   heating hours in response to aforementioned cyclogenesis. 
   Meanwhile, some low-level drying is expected, with RH values falling
   into the 18-35% range during the afternoon.  While typically these
   conditions would justify an elevated fire weather delineation, fuels
   appear to be driest just north of this region and ERCs are not
   particularly high.  Thus, locally elevated fire weather conditions
   are expected, and elevated delineations may be needed in later
   outlooks.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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