Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook - thorntonweather.com

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Updated: Thu, 23-Sep-2021 8:10am MDT

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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Early morning surface observations show a cold front along the US/Canada border. This feature will begin to shift southward through the day as the parent surface low shifts eastward into the Canadian Prairies in tandem with a passing upper-level trough. The passage of this dry cold front, along with weak surface pressure falls along/ahead of the boundary, will support increasing winds and heightened fire weather concerns across parts of the Plains. Further west where fuels are somewhat drier, weak surface flow will limit most fire weather threats, though localized concerns may evolve in northern California. ...Southern Plains... Modest zonal flow across the central Rockies will yield some lee troughing across the central High Plains ahead of the approaching cold front. Weak surface pressure falls are already noted in morning observations and support this general idea. The resulting mass response will yield increasing southerly winds from northwest TX into KS. An unseasonably dry air mass in place across TX and OK (where dewpoint values are near the 10th percentile for this time of year) and offshore flow along the Gulf Coast will support little moisture return and RH values in the teens and low 20s this afternoon. With ERC values continuing to climb close to the 90th percentile, elevated conditions appear likely. ...Central High Plains... Winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph in the wake of the cold frontal passage this afternoon. While temperatures will see some moderation, dry air advection from the north and a slight downslope component will support RH reductions into the teens and low 20s. While wind gusts up to 20-30 mph are possible during peak heating, the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds appears low. Recent fuel reports from the field suggest that fuels are generally receptive and should support a elevated fire weather conditions. ...Northern California... Building surface high pressure over the Pacific Northwest will induce northerly downslope winds through the northern Sacramento Valley. Winds may reach up to 15 mph by late afternoon, and RH values in the teens are expected. While elevated conditions are possible, the spatial extent and duration of this threat appears too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 09/23/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
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