Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SSEWD ACROSS THE
   N-CNTRL CONUS...AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG/LARGE POLAR
   VORTEX CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. FARTHER S...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE SERN STATES.
   THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
   MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. A STRONG SFC
   ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL BUILD
   SWD/SEWD OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...AIDED BY SUBSIDENT FLOW
   ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. FARTHER WEST...A
   N-S-ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS LYING FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN TO THE SWRN
   STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN EAST-PACIFIC
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE NWRN AND W-CNTRL CONUS WILL
   MOVE EWD...SERVING TO DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE. ACROSS SRN CA...DRY
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR...THOUGH LIGHT WINDS AND THE RECENT
   OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOME AREAS WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT THERE.
   
   ..COHEN.. 02/10/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN ANCHORED EAST OF
   HUDSON BAY...WHILE AN ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE S OF ITS
   CENTER AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN CONUS. AS
   THIS OCCURS...A SPRAWLING SFC ANTICYCLONE /ASSOCIATED WITH A
   CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS/ WILL ENVELOP MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SERN
   CONUS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE
   ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG NWLY TO NNWLY WINDS
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN CONUS. FARTHER WEST...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   RIDGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN STATES WILL BEGIN
   TRANSLATING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...WHILE AN
   UPSTREAM...CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH ALSO MOVES EWD. A ZONE OF
   MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE SWRN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...FL PANHANDLE...NRN FL PENINSULA...
   CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS -- I.E. NWLY TO NNWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
   WITH HIGHER GUSTS -- ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   AFOREMENTIONED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
   RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S. AS SUCH...ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OF CONCERN...ESPECIALLY DUE TO ONGOING
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR RH VALUES TO FALL
   INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ON AT LEAST A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. HOWEVER...WITH
   ABUNDANT COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
   RELATIVELY COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S WEST TO THE LOWER 60S
   EAST. IN THE ABSENCE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
   AS TO WHETHER RH VALUES WILL MEET CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON ANY MORE
   THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. FURTHERMORE...PRECIPITATION MAY IMPACT
   SOME AREAS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS/LOWER RH VALUES. AS
   SUCH...A SEE TEXT LABEL HAS BEEN INCLUDED...THOUGH UPGRADE TO
   CRITICAL DESIGNATION IS NOT BEING MADE AT THIS TIME OWING TO
   UNCERTAINTY IN THE THREAT FOR CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES AND
   POSSIBILITY OF ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION.
   
   ...SERN MS...SRN AL...SRN/CNTRL/ERN GA...SC...
   TO THE NORTH OF THE SEE TEXT AREA -- DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS
   SUBSECTION -- LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. NNWLY TO NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
   COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 30S. ANY INSTANCES OF
   CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS -- I.E. AOA 20 MPH -- ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL IN MAGNITUDE. WITH ABUNDANT COLD AIR
   ADVECTION IN PLACE...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
   PERCENT -- I.E. ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. FURTHERMORE...RELATIVELY
   COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THOSE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH THE
   POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF ENHANCED
   WINDS/DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AS
   SUCH...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE WARRANTED ATTM.
   
   ...AZ...SRN NV...SERN CA...
   THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH THE CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SSWLY TO SWLY SFC
   WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL/WRN
   AZ...SRN NV...AND SERN CA. COMBINING WITH THESE WINDS...MINIMUM RH
   VALUES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...THUS REMAINING
   ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE ABSENCE OF A DRIER AIR MASS OR
   WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES. WHILE PARTS OF SERN AZ MAY EXPERIENCE
   CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES...THESE AREAS WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
   CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ATTM. AS SUCH...OVERLAP OF
   CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AND NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE WARRANTED ATTM.
   
   ..COHEN.. 02/10/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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