Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Mesoscale Discussion - thorntonweather.com

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Updated: Thu, 23-May-2013 6:45pm MDT

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RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center SPC MD 788 MD 0788 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 214... FOR SOUTHWEST TX/FAR SOUTHEAST NM MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST TX/FAR SOUTHEAST NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 214... VALID 240035Z - 240200Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 214 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 214 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS/EDWARDS PLATEAU. DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS HAS GENERALLY BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED WITHIN THE WESTERN HALF OF WW 214 ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST TX/TRANSPECOS REGION AND FAR SOUTHEAST NM...WITH TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX OTHERWISE BEGINNING TO COOL VIA ANVIL SHADING/APPROACHING SUNSET. THE PRIMARY LINGERING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN FORT STOCKTON AND THE RIO GRANDE...AND MORE SO ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH A BACK-BUILDING/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PROPAGATING MCS. HERE...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL /MAINLY WESTERN FLANK/ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ASIDE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. MEASURED WIND GUSTS OF 52 KT HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AT BOTH SNYDER TX AND DYESS AIR FORCE BASE/ABILENE. ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS MCS...THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM MIDLAND SAMPLED AROUND 2600 J/KG OF MLCAPE VIA VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES /9.0 C PER KM 700-500 MB/ COINCIDENT WITH A LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINT AND MEAN MIXING RATIO AROUND 11.8 G/KG. ..GUYER.. 05/24/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30150284 31970331 32470192 32190044 31679983 29650110 30150284 Read more SPC MD 787 MD 0787 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 232347Z - 240115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY/PERHAPS MID-EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MT...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PARTS OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR/BILLINGS VICINITY. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FROM THE MT/WY BORDER VICINITY/BIGHORNS INTO PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/NEARBY SOUTHEAST MT THIS EVENING. WHILE CAPE IS NOT ROBUST /MLCAPE 500-800 J PER KG OR LESS/ AMID 40S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG/DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /ON PERIPHERY OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH/ ATOP LIGHTER NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOME SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SMALLER SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR/BILLINGS VICINITY TOWARD 01Z. THE PERCEIVED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 05/23/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 45140787 44940884 45130956 45770975 46510904 46040783 45140787 Read more
Data courtesy National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center.

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