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RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
MD 0391 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021
Areas affected...southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 152155Z - 160030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of cells producing large hail may persist for a
few hours as it moves from central into southeast Texas. Watch
chances downstream will depend on storm coverage/intensity trends.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived cell just northeast of Austin TX as of
21:55Z continues to show severe hail potential. This cell is located
within the theta-e gradient just off the surface, and is utilizing
elevated instability on the order of 1500 J/kg. Given the
southeastward motion due to moderate westerlies aloft and rightward
propagation on the southern end of the cluster, this storm is in an
environment of favorable shear and storm relative inflow. While
gusty winds may also occur, damaging hail is the most likely threat.
Very little change environmentally is forecast over the next several
hours, suggesting a status-quo scenario. Flow at 850 mb may be
slightly weaker farther east.
..Jewell/Hart.. 04/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 31069725 30139509 29729486 29459487 29229515 29169547
30089721 30369757 30649738 30729730 31069725
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MD 0390 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 0390
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021
Areas affected...Northeast Colorado
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 152051Z - 160045Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow, including rates up to 2 inches per
hour, may develop near the I-76 corridor of northeast Colorado
through 5-8 PM MDT.
DISCUSSION...A broad mid-level low is in the process of gradually
shifting east of the Great Basin into the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies.
As this continues through late afternoon and early evening,
large-scale ascent is forecast to develop and intensify across the
Platte Basin/Interstate 76 vicinity. Forcing for ascent will be
supported by strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection,
beneath increasingly difluent upper flow. Latest model forecast
soundings suggest lift will become maximized within and and above
favorably cold mid-levels supportive of large dendritic ice crystal
growth. At the same time, near surface winds are forecast to
gradually back to a northeasterly component, contributing to weak
low-level cold advection.
As this occurs, moderate to heavy snow in excess of 1 inch per hour
appears likely to develop. Recent runs of the Rapid Refresh have
indicated the development of rates approaching 2 inches per hour are
possible across an area focused around Fort Morgan, Sterling and
Akron as early as 23-00Z.
..Kerr.. 04/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40420473 40980367 41120284 40550243 39830373 39880499
40420473
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