Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Mesoscale Discussion - thorntonweather.com

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Updated: Wed, 08-Feb-2023 8:00pm MST

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RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center SPC MD 140 MD 0140 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR WESTERN KY Mesoscale Discussion 0140 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0838 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Areas affected...far western KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090238Z - 090445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some risk for damaging gusts may develop over mainly portions of far western KY through this evening. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic indicates storms have intensified during the past 30-60 minutes across far southeast MO. Surface analysis shows temperatures/dewpoints have warmed into the lower 60s over northern parts of western TN and into the mid-upper 50s at Paducah. The northward theta-e advection within the arching warm frontal zone over western KY/middle TN has led to weak buoyancy developing across the lower OH Valley. Around 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE is located across this region according to RAP 0-hr forecast soundings and objective analysis. Given the veering and very strong flow fields from just above the surface through the mid troposphere, it seems this evolving line segment near the MS River may yield a risk for damaging gusts over the next couple of hours across western KY. ..Smith/Grams.. 02/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36948916 37398841 37318802 37028794 36788820 36318942 36948916 Read more SPC MD 139 MD 0139 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 32... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MS AND SOUTHEAST LA Mesoscale Discussion 0139 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0808 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Areas affected...Portions of southwest into south-central MS and southeast LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 32... Valid 090208Z - 090345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of damaging winds and a couple mesovortex tornadoes should increase during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KPOE shows an organizing north-south-oriented line segment tracking east-northeastward at around 50 mph over far southwest MS into southeast LA. Lower/middle 60s dewpoints should continue to yield surface-based inflow for this line, while 50+ kt of midlevel flow oriented oblique to the leading-edge gust front should favor a continued organized/linear mode. Additional upscale growth/storm mergers downstream along with a strengthening pre-frontal low-level jet should support an increasing risk of damaging gusts. 50-70 mph gusts (some locally higher) are possible with any bowing/forward-propagating segments in the line. In addition, favorably curved low-level hodographs (per DGX VWP data) could also support a couple mesovortex tornadoes -- especially in parts of the line that become oriented more SSE-NNW. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31089139 31749127 32119113 32499075 32589020 32428985 32068975 31039008 30519050 30489112 30709137 31089139 Read more SPC MD 137 MD 0137 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN WY...NORTHWESTERN CO...AND FAR EASTERN UT Mesoscale Discussion 0137 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Areas affected...Southeastern WY...northwestern CO...and far eastern UT Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 090044Z - 090445Z SUMMARY...The potential for snow squalls should increase during the next few hours over parts of the central Rockies. Rapid visibility reductions in bursts of heavy snow will be possible with the more organized squalls. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery indicates increasing large-scale ascent overspreading southern WY into northern CO -- in the left exit region of an approaching mid/upper-level jet streak. Mosaic radar data shows a related increase in snow showers along/ahead of an approaching cold front, and this activity should continue spreading southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Over the next couple hours, the environment in the vicinity of these snow showers should become increasingly favorable for a couple organized snow squalls, given steepening low-level lapse rates, increasing ascent, and strengthening low-level flow. Rapid visibility reductions will be possible in bursts of heavy snow, especially with the more organized/banded snow squalls that can develop over the central Rockies into the overnight hours. ..Weinman.. 02/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT... LAT...LON 39130949 40080949 40800922 41370862 41970725 42490614 42660485 42180416 40990416 39420552 38220698 38000854 38450923 39130949 Read more
Data courtesy National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center.

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