Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Mesoscale Discussion - thorntonweather.com

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Updated: Tue, 27-Jul-2021 12:55pm MDT

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RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center SPC MD 1365 MD 1365 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395... FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...SOUTHERN VT...WESTERN/CENTRAL MA...NORTHERN CT Mesoscale Discussion 1365 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Areas affected...Western/Central/Eastern NY...Southern VT...Western/Central MA...Northern CT Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395... Valid 271801Z - 271930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across western and central NY. A downstream watch across eastern NY and adjacent areas will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite imagery show two lines of convection pushing across western and central NY. The lead line extends from RME southwestward to ITH. The second line extends from FZY southwestward to OLE. While initially stronger, the lead line has been on a weakening trend for the past half hour. In contract, the second has seen a gradual increase in intensity. This increase in intensity appears to be associated with a modest increase in instability and decrease in convective inhibition ahead of the line. Additionally, new development has recently occurred over Cattaraugus and Allegany Counties as the second line intersects the outflow of the leading convective line. Deep westerly flow aloft will result in fast storm motion as well as the potential for damaging wind gusts as these storms continue eastward. Current estimated storm motion is about 45 kt with the north end of the line. As a result, it is expected to reach the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395 around or before 19Z. Given the recent trends, a downstream watch will likely be needed across more of eastern NY and adjacent southern VT, western/central MA, and northern CT. ..Mosier.. 07/27/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 43247776 43567687 43567597 43427488 42897280 41707313 41767567 41857726 42167875 43247776 Read more
Data courtesy National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center.

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