Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 830

MD 0830 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199...200...201... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 0830
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Areas affected...South-central Kansas...Eastern Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles...Western and Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199...200...201...

Valid 230012Z - 230215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199, 200,
201 continues.

SUMMARY...The wind damage threat will likely continue with a linear
MCS moving east-southeastward across parts of the central and
southern Plains this evening. A brief tornado or an isolated large
hail threat will also exist with the stronger portions of the line.

DISCUSSION...A linear MCS is continuing to organize across the
southern and central High Plains early this evening. The MCS is
expected to enter the mature phase over the next couple of hours as
it moves east-southeastward across south-central Kansas, the eastern
Texas Panhandle and into northwest Oklahoma. Over the last hour, the
line has accelerated and the faster moving segments within the line
are moving at about 55 knots. This speed of movement will make wind
damage likely along the leading edge. A 69 knot gust was measured at
Dodge City at 7:02 CDT. The strongest part of the MCS is expected to
move across southern Kansas, the northeastern Texas Panhandle and
northwestern Oklahoma where the combination of shear and instability
is maximized. The low-level jet will increase across the southern
Plains also aiding development with the MCS. A weather watch may
need to be considered to the east of severe thunderstorm watch 201
later this evening.

..Broyles/Grams.. 06/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   39049886 38189960 37590018 37090065 36500112 35960158
            35770168 35470168 35260154 34990068 34729873 34709760
            35359701 36669664 37629646 38409659 38789758 39049886 

SPC MD 829

MD 0829 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 197... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA

Mesoscale Discussion 0829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Areas affected...Central/eastern Mississippi...northeastern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197...

Valid 222305Z - 230100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms ongoing in central/eastern Mississippi will remain
capable of damaging wind gusts through about 02Z. An additional WW
is not expected due to the limited coverage of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Storms east of Jackson have weakened over the last
hour. Storms near the Mississippi River remain atop the outflow of
the eastern storms. Storms will generally move in to areas of
decreasing buoyancy, particularly as the boundary layer beings to
cool. However, effective deep-layer shear of 30-35 kts will continue
to support enough storm organization that an isolated damaging wind
gust will remain possible for the next few hours. Given the
anticipated decrease in instability and isolated nature of the
severe threat, an additional watch is not likely.

In western portions of WW 197, storm coverage has remained low. A
few storms now near Morehouse County, LA have fired along the
trailing portion of the outflow boundary and persisted. Storms
forming in this area have access to more unstable air with MLCAPE
values of 2000-2500 J/kg, though shear is weaker at 20-30 kts. These
storms are also capable of a severe wind gust and perhaps isolated
hail.

..Wendt.. 06/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   32869233 32919127 32678981 32438838 31838825 31318901
            31539035 31879173 32379239 32679246 32869233 

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