Snow update: Models varying greatly on possible accumulation amounts
Monday, January 28th, 2013 12:06pm MDT
Forecast snowfall totals from the National Weather Service. Click for a larger view.
Weather forecasters use a number of computer models to help generate forecasts and predict the weather. When these models are in agreement it makes forecasts easier but that isn’t always the case and they are widely varying on predicting possible snowfall totals for the storm set to arrive later today.
As shown in the image below, two of the most popular forecast models diverge greatly on their estimates. The NAM shows Denver receive anywhere from 0 to 1” of snowfall. The GFS on the other hand would wallop the metro area with 6 to 8 inches.
When all is said and done the end result will probably be somewhere toward the lower end of the ranges. Indications are toward a bit more powerful event though than originally forecast.
For now it would appear forecasts in the 1 to 2 inch range for Thornton would be prudent similar to what the National Weather Service is forecasting.
However we do expect to see some snow bands develop and in those areas a good bit more snow may be realized. This could very well be one of those events where snowfall totals vary greatly over short distances.
As for the timing of the system, it is on track and as of this writing cloud cover is beginning to increase. A light rain / snow mix could develop as soon as 2:00pm with a changeover to all snow expected after 5:00pm or so. Look for it to continue through midnight then gradually taper off from there.
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Two forecast models have widely varying solutions for the amount of snow to arrive in the Denver area. Click the image for a larger view.
Tags: forecast, january weather
January 28th, 2013 at 2:04 PM
Bring.it.on!