Tag Archives: hurricane prediction

CSU teams forecasts above average hurricane season

CSU 2010 hurricane forecast
Hurricane forecasters at CSU predict unusually high levels of hurricane activity in 2010.

The hurricane forecasting team at Colorado State University released an updated forecast for the 2010 season and they continue to predict an above normal level of activity. The numbers would seem to put residents along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts on notice that they should be prepared.

The CSU team’s forecast, generated by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray, portend what may be an active season in the Atlantic basin.

The team is calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). By contrast, an average season has only 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Residents in coastal regions will want to take note that the forecasters said there is a 69% probability of a major hurricane striking the United States coastline. That is 17% above the average for the past century.

Breaking their analysis down further, Klotzbach and Gray forecast a 45% chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S. East Coast and a 44% chance of one striking the Gulf Coast. For the Caribbean, a 58% chance of a major hurricane tracking through the area is given. Each of those reflects significant increases above average.

This year the team says weakening El Nino conditions coupled with warmer water in the Atlantic will account for considerably above normal activity. The 2009 hurricane season fell flat and finished with the fewest number of storms since 1997 and was one of the least active on record.

AccuWeather.com’s hurricane forecasting team led by Joe Bastardi issued their forecast last month and predicted an ‘extreme season.’ Their forecast called for 16 to 18 named storms with two to three with five hurricanes making landfall, two to three of those being major hurricanes.

Hurricane season officially starts on June 1st and runs through November 30th. However, hurricanes can and have formed anytime between March and December.

For more on hurricanes, check out these other stories from the Natural Disasters Examiner:

2008 Atlantic hurricane season sets record

This image shows the tracks of hurricanes that occurred during the 2008 season.  Click for larger image.
This image shows the tracks of hurricanes that occurred during the 2008 season. Click for larger image.

Sunday, November 30th marks the close of the hurricane season and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says it was one for the record books.  The season marks one of the more active in the last 64 years overall and resulted in a record number of consecutive storms striking the United States.

According to Gerry Bell, Ph.D, the lead seasonal forecaster at NOAA, “This year’s hurricane season continues the current active hurricane era and is the tenth season to produce above-normal activity in the past 14 years.”  It is important to note however that comprehensive record keeping of hurricanes has only been occurring for the last 64 years so there is not a great deal of data to draw upon.

In all, a total of 16 named storms formed this season, eight of which were hurricanes.  Five of those were major hurricanes of category 3 strength or higher.  An average hurricane season has 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.  In May at the start of the 2008 season, NOAA forecasters predicted 12 to 16 named storms and then in August upped their predictions to 14 to 18 named storms.  This represents the first time in recent years forecasters had accurately bracketed the number of storms.  In 2007 NOAA predicted 10 hurricanes and only six formed. The year prior, 2006, nine hurricanes were forecasted by NOAA but only five formed.  In 2005, the year Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in the worst U.S. natural disaster, the forecasts underestimated storm activity.

2008 ties as the fourth most active season in terms of named storms (16) and major hurricanes (5).  It also tied as fifth most active in terms of hurricanes overall (8) since 1944. 

From NOAA, most notably:

For the first time on record, six consecutive tropical cyclones (Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) made landfall on the U.S. mainland and a record three major hurricanes (Gustav, Ike and Paloma) struck Cuba. This is also the first Atlantic season to have a major hurricane (Category 3) form in five consecutive months (July: Bertha, August: Gustav, September: Ike, October: Omar, November: Paloma).

Bell attributes the active season to ongoing increased activity since 1995, lingering La Nina effects and warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean effects.

Here is a fascinating video from NOAA using satellite imagery of the entire hurricane season: