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National Weather, Natural Disasters

CSU hurricane forecasters predict very active Atlantic season

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Forecasters are warning of a very active hurricane season and an increased potential for landfall in the United States. (Natural Disasters Examiner)
Forecasters are warning of a very active hurricane season and an increased potential for landfall in the United States. (Natural Disasters Examiner)

Forecasters at Colorado State University released an updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane forecast that if it holds true, portends a very eventful season.  The forecast warns of a 175 percent above normal level of activity and most troubling warns that the United States is overdue to get struck by a major hurricane.

The 2010 hurricane season was a busy one and saw the third most named storms on record but mercifully, none made landfall in the United States.  For the 2011 season the CSU team expects things to be slightly calmer but still far above normal.

CSU forecasters are calling for 16 named storms during the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season.  Of those they expect nine will become hurricanes and five of those will be major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).

These estimates far exceed the historical 1950 to 2000 average.  During that period the Atlantic averaged 9.6 named storms per year, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.

The team warned that whether a hurricane forecast calls for above or below normal activity, residents should always be equally prepared.  Dr. Phil Klotzbach said, “It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season.”

Breaking down the team’s analysis further, they gave a 72 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline.  By comparison, the long-term average probability is 52 percent.

This recent 9 of 11-year period without any major landfall events should not be expected to continue.
~ Dr. William Gray

By region CSU forecasters put a 48% chance on the probability that a major hurricane will strike the East Coast.  Nearly matching that they said there was a 47% probably a major hurricane would hit on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Dr. William Gray noted that overall the Atlantic Basin is primed for significant hurricane activity.  He said that since 1999, only the 2004 and 2005 seasons saw a major hurricane make landfall in the U.S. and this scenario is not likely to continue.  Gray warns, “This recent 9 of 11-year period without any major landfall events should not be expected to continue.”

More hurricane news from the Natural Disasters Examiner:

National Weather

CSU teams forecasts above average hurricane season

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CSU 2010 hurricane forecast
Hurricane forecasters at CSU predict unusually high levels of hurricane activity in 2010.

The hurricane forecasting team at Colorado State University released an updated forecast for the 2010 season and they continue to predict an above normal level of activity. The numbers would seem to put residents along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts on notice that they should be prepared.

The CSU team’s forecast, generated by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray, portend what may be an active season in the Atlantic basin.

The team is calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). By contrast, an average season has only 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Residents in coastal regions will want to take note that the forecasters said there is a 69% probability of a major hurricane striking the United States coastline. That is 17% above the average for the past century.

Breaking their analysis down further, Klotzbach and Gray forecast a 45% chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S. East Coast and a 44% chance of one striking the Gulf Coast. For the Caribbean, a 58% chance of a major hurricane tracking through the area is given. Each of those reflects significant increases above average.

This year the team says weakening El Nino conditions coupled with warmer water in the Atlantic will account for considerably above normal activity. The 2009 hurricane season fell flat and finished with the fewest number of storms since 1997 and was one of the least active on record.

AccuWeather.com’s hurricane forecasting team led by Joe Bastardi issued their forecast last month and predicted an ‘extreme season.’ Their forecast called for 16 to 18 named storms with two to three with five hurricanes making landfall, two to three of those being major hurricanes.

Hurricane season officially starts on June 1st and runs through November 30th. However, hurricanes can and have formed anytime between March and December.

For more on hurricanes, check out these other stories from the Natural Disasters Examiner: